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The Government Shutdown Is Over, But The Fed's Data Problem Is Just Beginning

MarketDash Editorial Team
25 days ago
With October's key economic reports likely lost forever, the Federal Reserve faces a critical December meeting without crucial inflation and jobs data. Here's what policymakers will—and won't—know when they decide on interest rates.

The longest government shutdown in U.S. history is wrapping up, but it's leaving behind an unexpected casualty: two of the most important data points the Federal Reserve relies on to make monetary policy decisions simply won't exist.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt didn't miss the chance to assign blame for the data blackout.

"Democrats permanently damaged the federal statistical system with October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released," she said. "All of that economic data released will be permanently impaired, leaving our policymakers at the Federal Reserve flying blind at a critical period."

Worth noting: the Trump administration itself has pushed to reorganize statistical agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics, raising bipartisan concerns about whether economic data might become politicized.

December's Fed Meeting Just Got Complicated

The timing here is particularly awkward. The Federal Open Market Committee meets December 17-18, and nobody's quite sure what they'll do. Missing key economic indicators doesn't exactly help clarify things.

According to Peter Williams, an analyst at 22V Research, we're about to get hit with a flood of September and third-quarter data over the next two to three weeks.

"We will get the Sept and Q3 data fairly promptly, likely done by Thanksgiving or shortly thereafter," Williams noted.

That batch includes delayed retail sales, personal income figures, and third-quarter GDP—which should still show robust growth in the 3-4% annualized range.

But here's where it gets messy. Fourth-quarter economic data will bear the scars of the shutdown. Missed wages, frozen benefits, delayed spending—the direct economic drag could slice 0.75-1% off fourth-quarter GDP growth. That hit might reverse in the first quarter of 2026, but it creates a temporary dip at an already delicate moment.

"Catching up will take time and could still limit data availability for the Dec Fed meeting," Williams said.

The good news? Private sector activity looks surprisingly resilient. "Private final demand will be much less impacted and should keep chugging along at or just below its recent 2.5%+ trend," he added.

Retail spending held steady through October based on bank earnings and Redbook data, while jobless claims remain stable.

What The Fed Will Actually See Before It Decides

Williams laid out the data timeline, and it's not pretty:

  • September data: Should start arriving next week, including payrolls, retail sales, and personal income. Most of this will likely be published by early December.
  • October data: Partial at best, with significant delays. The CPI and PCE inflation numbers probably won't be published at all. "Probably for the best we don't get it," Williams said, since the October CPI would have required heavy statistical imputation anyway.
  • November data: Will arrive slowly and incompletely before the FOMC meeting. The November employment report, typically released right before the Fed decides, could be "delayed a little," Williams noted. Even if it does come out, it's "unclear if it will have a household survey attached."

"By mid-Dec we are likely largely caught up with the delayed data and schedules return to normal post-Fed meeting," Williams predicted.

Until then, expect a lot of noise and very little clarity.

As of Thursday, CME FedWatch shows a 65% chance of a December rate cut, which would be the third straight reduction. But that's far from certain. Williams characterized the underlying economy as "strong" on spending and "soft but steady-ish" on labor—giving the Fed enough justification to pause if they want to.

The only certainty? "It will be a hectic next month," Williams said.

Back to News

The Government Shutdown Is Over, But The Fed's Data Problem Is Just Beginning

MarketDash Editorial Team
25 days ago
With October's key economic reports likely lost forever, the Federal Reserve faces a critical December meeting without crucial inflation and jobs data. Here's what policymakers will—and won't—know when they decide on interest rates.

The longest government shutdown in U.S. history is wrapping up, but it's leaving behind an unexpected casualty: two of the most important data points the Federal Reserve relies on to make monetary policy decisions simply won't exist.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt didn't miss the chance to assign blame for the data blackout.

"Democrats permanently damaged the federal statistical system with October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released," she said. "All of that economic data released will be permanently impaired, leaving our policymakers at the Federal Reserve flying blind at a critical period."

Worth noting: the Trump administration itself has pushed to reorganize statistical agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics, raising bipartisan concerns about whether economic data might become politicized.

December's Fed Meeting Just Got Complicated

The timing here is particularly awkward. The Federal Open Market Committee meets December 17-18, and nobody's quite sure what they'll do. Missing key economic indicators doesn't exactly help clarify things.

According to Peter Williams, an analyst at 22V Research, we're about to get hit with a flood of September and third-quarter data over the next two to three weeks.

"We will get the Sept and Q3 data fairly promptly, likely done by Thanksgiving or shortly thereafter," Williams noted.

That batch includes delayed retail sales, personal income figures, and third-quarter GDP—which should still show robust growth in the 3-4% annualized range.

But here's where it gets messy. Fourth-quarter economic data will bear the scars of the shutdown. Missed wages, frozen benefits, delayed spending—the direct economic drag could slice 0.75-1% off fourth-quarter GDP growth. That hit might reverse in the first quarter of 2026, but it creates a temporary dip at an already delicate moment.

"Catching up will take time and could still limit data availability for the Dec Fed meeting," Williams said.

The good news? Private sector activity looks surprisingly resilient. "Private final demand will be much less impacted and should keep chugging along at or just below its recent 2.5%+ trend," he added.

Retail spending held steady through October based on bank earnings and Redbook data, while jobless claims remain stable.

What The Fed Will Actually See Before It Decides

Williams laid out the data timeline, and it's not pretty:

  • September data: Should start arriving next week, including payrolls, retail sales, and personal income. Most of this will likely be published by early December.
  • October data: Partial at best, with significant delays. The CPI and PCE inflation numbers probably won't be published at all. "Probably for the best we don't get it," Williams said, since the October CPI would have required heavy statistical imputation anyway.
  • November data: Will arrive slowly and incompletely before the FOMC meeting. The November employment report, typically released right before the Fed decides, could be "delayed a little," Williams noted. Even if it does come out, it's "unclear if it will have a household survey attached."

"By mid-Dec we are likely largely caught up with the delayed data and schedules return to normal post-Fed meeting," Williams predicted.

Until then, expect a lot of noise and very little clarity.

As of Thursday, CME FedWatch shows a 65% chance of a December rate cut, which would be the third straight reduction. But that's far from certain. Williams characterized the underlying economy as "strong" on spending and "soft but steady-ish" on labor—giving the Fed enough justification to pause if they want to.

The only certainty? "It will be a hectic next month," Williams said.

    The Government Shutdown Is Over, But The Fed's Data Problem Is Just Beginning - MarketDash News