President Donald Trump unveiled a trade framework Friday with Switzerland and Liechtenstein that's remarkably ambitious: wipe out a $38.5 billion goods deficit by 2028 and lock in at least $200 billion worth of investments in American operations. It's the kind of deal that sounds almost too neat, except Swiss companies are already putting specific numbers on the table.
The announcement comes after Trump slapped 39% tariffs on Swiss imports back in August, which sent Swiss executives scrambling. Richemont Chairman Johann Rupert tried to smooth things over Thursday, diplomatically calling the whole tariff situation a "misunderstanding." Now it appears that misunderstanding is getting resolved with a hefty price tag attached.
Swiss Giants Open Their Wallets
The investment commitments are substantial and specific. Swiss pharmaceutical and industrial heavyweights including Roche Holding AG, Novartis AG (NVS), ABB Ltd. (ABB), and Stadler have signed on to invest under this framework. The expectation is at least $67 billion flowing in during 2026 alone, which would make it one of the larger foreign investment years on record.
These investments aren't concentrated in a few coastal tech hubs either. The administration says jobs will be created across all 50 states, spanning pharmaceuticals, machinery, medical devices, aerospace, construction, advanced manufacturing, and energy infrastructure. That's a fairly comprehensive industrial wish list.
How the Tariff Math Works
Switzerland and Liechtenstein will face a cumulative reciprocal tariff rate capped at 15%, which notably matches the treatment given to the European Union. That's a significant climb-down from the 39% tariffs imposed earlier, suggesting the investment pledges did their job.
The deal gets more specific from there. Both sides intend to eliminate tariffs entirely on nuts, fish, seafood, certain fruits, chemicals, and spirits including whiskey and rum. Meanwhile, Switzerland plans to impose tariff rate quotas on American exports of bison, beef, and poultry, which protects Swiss agricultural interests without completely shutting out U.S. producers.
Beyond Tariffs
The framework extends into less headline-grabbing but equally important territory. There's coordination planned on export controls, sanctions, and investment screening, which matters considerably in an era where supply chain security has become a national security concern.
On the digital front, both partners agreed to principles that include refraining from imposing digital services taxes. That's been a major sticking point in U.S. trade relations with Europe, where countries have increasingly tried to tax American tech giants operating in their markets.
Switzerland has committed to balancing bilateral trade with the United States as negotiations continue toward a final agreement expected in early 2026. That's the real test: whether these investment pledges and tariff adjustments actually move the trade deficit needle over the next few years.
Market reaction was muted Friday. The iShares MSCI Switzerland ETF (EWL) closed down 0.52% at $57.55, while the Franklin FTSE Switzerland ETF (FLSW) slipped 0.46% to $39.75. Apparently investors are taking a wait-and-see approach to whether this framework turns into a finalized deal.