After 42 days of statistical darkness, we're finally getting some jobs data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Friday that September's nonfarm payrolls report will drop Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, marking the first major economic release since the government shutdown ended.
The shutdown, which ran from October 1st through Wednesday of this week, was the longest in U.S. history. It took a bipartisan Senate deal to finally restore funding through January 30, but the damage to the data pipeline is already done.
The Data Gaps Are Serious
Here's what we lost: seven consecutive weeks of unemployment claims data. That's not trivial. The weekly jobless claims report is one of the most reliable early warning signals for where the labor market is heading, and now there's just a blank space where October should be.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt didn't sugarcoat the situation on Wednesday, warning that "Democrats permanently damaged the federal statistical system with October consumer price index (CPI) and jobs reports likely never being released."
The only data point that made it out during the shutdown was September's CPI, and that's purely because Social Security cost-of-living adjustments depend on it. The numbers came in slightly cooler than expected:
| Metric | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Headline Inflation (YoY) | 3.0% | Slightly below forecast (3.1%) |
| Core Inflation (YoY) | 3.0% | Slowed from 3.1% |
| Monthly Core Inflation | 0.2% | Below expectations |
Meanwhile, the broader economic picture looks shaky. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 94.6 in October from 95.6 in September. Major employers including Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS), and Intel Corp. (INTC) have announced significant job cuts.
Flying Blind Into Policy Decisions
Senator Elizabeth Warren put it bluntly in early October: the Federal Reserve is "flying blind." She accused President Trump of deliberately withholding September's jobs data, though the official release is now scheduled for Thursday.
Without official Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers, markets have been relying on private data. Carlyle Group figures from early October showed just 17,000 jobs created in September, well below the 54,000 forecast and the weakest hiring since the 2020 recession.
That's the context going into Thursday's report. The Fed needs this data to make informed decisions about monetary policy, markets need it to price assets properly, and we've all been operating with incomplete information for over a month. Whatever the September numbers show, they're arriving at a moment when clarity matters more than usual.