StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB) shares took a beating Friday, dropping over 21% after the ticketing platform delivered a messy third quarter that left more questions than answers about what's coming next.

The company reported a quarterly loss of $4.27 per share Thursday, well below the $3.08 consensus estimate. Revenue came in at $468 million, beating expectations of $451.8 million, but that silver lining wasn't enough to ease investor concerns.

The Downgrade

Bank of America Securities analyst Justin Post wasted no time responding, downgrading StubHub from Buy to Neutral and chopping his price target from $25 to $19. The problem? Timing shifts are making it hard to figure out what's actually happening with the business.

StubHub offered no specific fourth-quarter guidance, and Post flagged several timing quirks that could distort results. Some major tour sales happened earlier than usual in late September, which probably inflated third-quarter gross merchandise sales. Meanwhile, fourth-quarter 2024 saw an unusual concentration of major on-sales, but this year's timing looks different.

Post acknowledged that the 2026 concert season might strengthen, pointing to Live Nation's comments about "a great pipeline" ahead. Still, he's less confident about fourth-quarter estimates and 2026 GMS growth given the lack of clarity.

Slashed Expectations

The analyst is now modeling fourth-quarter GMS down 2% due to tough comparisons and continued pricing pressure, though he expects that pressure to ease after May. He's also lowering expectations for direct issuance sales and advertising revenue in future years, arguing that caution makes sense until visibility improves.

The numbers tell the story: Post now forecasts 2026 GMS and revenue at $12.7 billion and $2.5 billion, down from prior estimates of $13.3 billion and $2.8 billion. His 2026 EBITDA outlook dropped even harder, to $710 million from $989 million.

What's Next

Post had hoped for clearer growth visibility heading into 2026, but instead the update created more near-term uncertainty. StubHub plans to provide full-year 2026 guidance on its fourth-quarter earnings call, though the analyst expects the cloud over 2026 estimates to linger.

Potential catalysts include 2026 concert on-sale announcements, new direct-issuance partnerships, and the fourth-quarter launch of sponsored product ads. On the risk side, Post flags new U.S. ticketing regulations and possible selling pressure when the first-quarter lock-up period expires.

Shares traded at $14.74 Friday afternoon, down 21.68% on the day.