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Elon Musk's Solar Prediction Is Getting Backed Up By Real Money

MarketDash Editorial Team
23 days ago
When Elon Musk declared solar would dominate civilization's power grid, the data was already proving him right. Now investors are piling into solar ETFs after years of sitting on the sidelines.

When Elon Musk declares that "solar electricity will become by far the biggest source of power for civilization," it's worth checking whether he's just being Elon or whether the numbers actually back him up. Turns out, this time the data is on his side. Solar is absolutely crushing it in real-world deployment, even if the stock market hasn't quite caught up yet.

For investors trying to figure out how to capture what might be the most dramatic shift in global energy infrastructure, a handful of solar and clean-power ETFs have emerged as the main vehicles. Each one slices the opportunity differently, and each has started attracting serious money again after a brutal couple of years.

Three Ways To Play The Solar Surge

The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) is the most direct bet on Musk's thesis. This fund doesn't mess around with diversification. It goes straight for solar-specific companies: panel manufacturers, inverter makers, project developers, and installation firms spread across China, the U.S., and Europe. If you want pure exposure to global solar installation trends, this is it.

The past two years weren't kind to TAN. Oversupply in solar modules combined with punishing financing costs hammered the fund. But over the past month, something shifted. The fund pulled in roughly $34.6 million in fresh capital and posted a 5% price gain. Analysts are starting to whisper about a cyclical recovery as the world continues installing record amounts of solar capacity.

If going all-in on solar feels too concentrated, the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) offers a broader approach. This fund spreads its holdings across solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, and grid infrastructure. Solar remains one of the largest slices, so you still get meaningful exposure to the buildout, but the fund softens the single-technology volatility that crushed pure solar plays in 2023 and 2024. According to a 2024 report by the Solar Energy Industries Association, this diversification matters.

ICLN also captures utility-scale solar operators working under long-term power purchase agreements, which tend to have steadier margins than the manufacturing side. Over the past month, the fund attracted more than $114 million in inflows and climbed 4% in price.

Then there's the SPDR Kensho Clean Power ETF (CNRG), which takes a different angle entirely. This fund focuses on companies building the next generation of energy technologies. Solar is a major component, but CNRG also holds grid-modernization firms, battery storage companies, and power-electronics manufacturers. These are the businesses solving the tricky problems that come with solar's intermittency and massive scale-up.

As solar claims a bigger share of the grid, these supporting technologies are getting more attention. CNRG pulled in $15 million over the past month. That's modest compared to the others, but it's a promising sign after the sector's quiet period.

Why Musk Isn't Just Making This Up

Musk's solar-dominance claim wasn't pulled from nowhere. He was retweeting HODL Ranch CTO Jesse Peltan, who pointed out that China accounts for most of the world's electricity growth, and three-quarters of that new supply is solar. The latest global electricity data from Ember backs this up: over the past 12 months, solar added close to 600 TWh of new generation worldwide, blowing past every other energy source by a massive margin.

China's buildout alone is reshaping the global energy landscape, but the momentum shows up in the U.S. too, where solar has been one of the strongest contributors to new capacity. Wind, nuclear, and hydro are showing modest or even negative growth. Solar, meanwhile, continues scaling at a pace that's difficult for even seasoned energy analysts to forecast accurately.

When Markets Miss The Memo

Here's the puzzling part: despite solar's explosive installation numbers, equity markets haven't fully priced in the transformation. High interest rates, supply chain chaos, and compressed margins sent solar stocks and ETFs into a steep decline over the past two years. Now, with capacity additions soaring and input costs starting to stabilize, investors are taking a fresh look at whether the sector's beating created a major buying opportunity.

If Musk is right—and the data increasingly suggests he might be—solar isn't just another clean-energy theme anymore. It's becoming the foundation of global electricity growth. And for investors looking to plug into that transformation, these ETFs might be the most straightforward path forward.

Back to News

Elon Musk's Solar Prediction Is Getting Backed Up By Real Money

MarketDash Editorial Team
23 days ago
When Elon Musk declared solar would dominate civilization's power grid, the data was already proving him right. Now investors are piling into solar ETFs after years of sitting on the sidelines.

When Elon Musk declares that "solar electricity will become by far the biggest source of power for civilization," it's worth checking whether he's just being Elon or whether the numbers actually back him up. Turns out, this time the data is on his side. Solar is absolutely crushing it in real-world deployment, even if the stock market hasn't quite caught up yet.

For investors trying to figure out how to capture what might be the most dramatic shift in global energy infrastructure, a handful of solar and clean-power ETFs have emerged as the main vehicles. Each one slices the opportunity differently, and each has started attracting serious money again after a brutal couple of years.

Three Ways To Play The Solar Surge

The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) is the most direct bet on Musk's thesis. This fund doesn't mess around with diversification. It goes straight for solar-specific companies: panel manufacturers, inverter makers, project developers, and installation firms spread across China, the U.S., and Europe. If you want pure exposure to global solar installation trends, this is it.

The past two years weren't kind to TAN. Oversupply in solar modules combined with punishing financing costs hammered the fund. But over the past month, something shifted. The fund pulled in roughly $34.6 million in fresh capital and posted a 5% price gain. Analysts are starting to whisper about a cyclical recovery as the world continues installing record amounts of solar capacity.

If going all-in on solar feels too concentrated, the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) offers a broader approach. This fund spreads its holdings across solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, and grid infrastructure. Solar remains one of the largest slices, so you still get meaningful exposure to the buildout, but the fund softens the single-technology volatility that crushed pure solar plays in 2023 and 2024. According to a 2024 report by the Solar Energy Industries Association, this diversification matters.

ICLN also captures utility-scale solar operators working under long-term power purchase agreements, which tend to have steadier margins than the manufacturing side. Over the past month, the fund attracted more than $114 million in inflows and climbed 4% in price.

Then there's the SPDR Kensho Clean Power ETF (CNRG), which takes a different angle entirely. This fund focuses on companies building the next generation of energy technologies. Solar is a major component, but CNRG also holds grid-modernization firms, battery storage companies, and power-electronics manufacturers. These are the businesses solving the tricky problems that come with solar's intermittency and massive scale-up.

As solar claims a bigger share of the grid, these supporting technologies are getting more attention. CNRG pulled in $15 million over the past month. That's modest compared to the others, but it's a promising sign after the sector's quiet period.

Why Musk Isn't Just Making This Up

Musk's solar-dominance claim wasn't pulled from nowhere. He was retweeting HODL Ranch CTO Jesse Peltan, who pointed out that China accounts for most of the world's electricity growth, and three-quarters of that new supply is solar. The latest global electricity data from Ember backs this up: over the past 12 months, solar added close to 600 TWh of new generation worldwide, blowing past every other energy source by a massive margin.

China's buildout alone is reshaping the global energy landscape, but the momentum shows up in the U.S. too, where solar has been one of the strongest contributors to new capacity. Wind, nuclear, and hydro are showing modest or even negative growth. Solar, meanwhile, continues scaling at a pace that's difficult for even seasoned energy analysts to forecast accurately.

When Markets Miss The Memo

Here's the puzzling part: despite solar's explosive installation numbers, equity markets haven't fully priced in the transformation. High interest rates, supply chain chaos, and compressed margins sent solar stocks and ETFs into a steep decline over the past two years. Now, with capacity additions soaring and input costs starting to stabilize, investors are taking a fresh look at whether the sector's beating created a major buying opportunity.

If Musk is right—and the data increasingly suggests he might be—solar isn't just another clean-energy theme anymore. It's becoming the foundation of global electricity growth. And for investors looking to plug into that transformation, these ETFs might be the most straightforward path forward.