Marketdash
Back to News

Disney's Earnings Miss Leaves Analysts Optimistic Despite Weak Guidance

MarketDash Editorial Team
24 days ago
Disney shares tumbled after missing revenue expectations and delivering softer guidance, but several Wall Street analysts remain bullish on the entertainment giant's growth prospects despite near-term headwinds.

Walt Disney Co. (DIS) shares took a beating in early Friday trading after the entertainment behemoth delivered a mixed bag of fiscal fourth-quarter results that left investors wanting more. The company missed on the top line while beating on earnings, but it was the weak forward guidance that really spooked the Street.

Despite the selloff, several prominent analysts are sticking with their bullish calls on Disney. Here's what the experts are saying:

The Analyst Scorecard

  • Rosenblatt Securities analyst Barton Crockett kept his Buy rating but trimmed his price target from $141 to $130.
  • Needham analyst Laura Martin maintained a Buy rating with a $125 price target.
  • Guggenheim Securities analyst Michael Morris reaffirmed his Buy rating and $140 price target.
  • Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng held firm on his Buy rating with a $152 price target.

Breaking Down The Numbers

Disney's revenues came in essentially flat year-over-year at $22.5 billion, missing Wall Street's expectations, according to Crockett. The silver lining? Pro forma earnings actually declined 3% to $1.11 per share but still beat Rosenblatt's estimate of nine cents per share.

"The company's core strength is durable parks," Crockett wrote. While domestic park revenue growth decelerated to 6.1% from the prior quarter's 10%, international parks picked up the slack with 10% growth, up from 6% in the fiscal third quarter.

Martin characterized the results as mixed, with the revenue miss offset by the earnings beat. But management's "weak" guidance for the December quarter caught her attention. She noted that Disney's growth trajectory is increasingly "tied to" expansion in cruise ships and theme parks, which means "higher capital intensity going forward."

The cruise business looks particularly promising. Theme park bookings are running 3% higher for the December quarter, but the real action is in cruises. Disney Destiny launches November 20, Disney Adventure hits the water in March 2026, and five additional ships are planned beyond fiscal 2026. That's a lot of new revenue potential floating on the horizon.

The Consumer Question

Morris pointed out that while Disney's total revenues missed Street expectations by just 1%, the shortfall carries weight "given intense investor focus on demand and consumer trends." He cut his segment operating income forecast from $5.3 billion to $4.7 billion, citing higher cruise-related expenses, tough political advertising comparisons, increased marketing spending ahead of "Avatar: Fire and Ash," and slower-than-expected direct-to-consumer streaming margin growth.

Still, management is standing by its projection of double-digit earnings growth in fiscal 2026 and 2027.

The Streaming Reality Check

Ng highlighted that Disney's direct-to-consumer earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter and the outlook for the fiscal first quarter both missed expectations. Entertainment revenues totaled $10.21 billion, below the $10.44 billion consensus.

The company's $24 billion cash content outlook, combined with a 10% SVOD (subscription video on demand) EBIT margin target, "implies less operating leverage and the need to invest more to drive growth than we expected," Ng explained. Translation: Disney's streaming business needs more fuel to reach profitability than analysts originally thought.

Shares of Disney were down 0.88% to $106.63 at the time of publication on Friday.

Back to News

Disney's Earnings Miss Leaves Analysts Optimistic Despite Weak Guidance

MarketDash Editorial Team
24 days ago
Disney shares tumbled after missing revenue expectations and delivering softer guidance, but several Wall Street analysts remain bullish on the entertainment giant's growth prospects despite near-term headwinds.

Walt Disney Co. (DIS) shares took a beating in early Friday trading after the entertainment behemoth delivered a mixed bag of fiscal fourth-quarter results that left investors wanting more. The company missed on the top line while beating on earnings, but it was the weak forward guidance that really spooked the Street.

Despite the selloff, several prominent analysts are sticking with their bullish calls on Disney. Here's what the experts are saying:

The Analyst Scorecard

  • Rosenblatt Securities analyst Barton Crockett kept his Buy rating but trimmed his price target from $141 to $130.
  • Needham analyst Laura Martin maintained a Buy rating with a $125 price target.
  • Guggenheim Securities analyst Michael Morris reaffirmed his Buy rating and $140 price target.
  • Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng held firm on his Buy rating with a $152 price target.

Breaking Down The Numbers

Disney's revenues came in essentially flat year-over-year at $22.5 billion, missing Wall Street's expectations, according to Crockett. The silver lining? Pro forma earnings actually declined 3% to $1.11 per share but still beat Rosenblatt's estimate of nine cents per share.

"The company's core strength is durable parks," Crockett wrote. While domestic park revenue growth decelerated to 6.1% from the prior quarter's 10%, international parks picked up the slack with 10% growth, up from 6% in the fiscal third quarter.

Martin characterized the results as mixed, with the revenue miss offset by the earnings beat. But management's "weak" guidance for the December quarter caught her attention. She noted that Disney's growth trajectory is increasingly "tied to" expansion in cruise ships and theme parks, which means "higher capital intensity going forward."

The cruise business looks particularly promising. Theme park bookings are running 3% higher for the December quarter, but the real action is in cruises. Disney Destiny launches November 20, Disney Adventure hits the water in March 2026, and five additional ships are planned beyond fiscal 2026. That's a lot of new revenue potential floating on the horizon.

The Consumer Question

Morris pointed out that while Disney's total revenues missed Street expectations by just 1%, the shortfall carries weight "given intense investor focus on demand and consumer trends." He cut his segment operating income forecast from $5.3 billion to $4.7 billion, citing higher cruise-related expenses, tough political advertising comparisons, increased marketing spending ahead of "Avatar: Fire and Ash," and slower-than-expected direct-to-consumer streaming margin growth.

Still, management is standing by its projection of double-digit earnings growth in fiscal 2026 and 2027.

The Streaming Reality Check

Ng highlighted that Disney's direct-to-consumer earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter and the outlook for the fiscal first quarter both missed expectations. Entertainment revenues totaled $10.21 billion, below the $10.44 billion consensus.

The company's $24 billion cash content outlook, combined with a 10% SVOD (subscription video on demand) EBIT margin target, "implies less operating leverage and the need to invest more to drive growth than we expected," Ng explained. Translation: Disney's streaming business needs more fuel to reach profitability than analysts originally thought.

Shares of Disney were down 0.88% to $106.63 at the time of publication on Friday.

    Disney's Earnings Miss Leaves Analysts Optimistic Despite Weak Guidance - MarketDash News