Paul Singer's Elliott Investment Management just revealed a fascinating portfolio pivot. According to its third-quarter 13F filing released Friday, the firm has essentially stopped betting against the market as a whole and started making very specific sector bets instead. And those bets tell an interesting story about where Singer thinks the opportunities and dangers are hiding.

Out With Broad Pessimism, In With Surgical Strikes

The most striking move? Elliott completely exited what was its largest single position last quarter: a massive $1.33 billion put option on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). That's the kind of hedge you hold when you think the entire market might be heading south. Closing it out suggests Elliott isn't playing defense against a general market meltdown anymore.

Instead, the firm is getting surgical. The 13F filing, which captures holdings as of September 30, 2025, shows Elliott dramatically ramping up its bearish position on gold miners. The firm added 7.5 million shares to its put position on the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), bringing total holdings to 11.5 million shares valued at $878.6 million. That's a pretty strong conviction call that the mining sector faces trouble ahead.

But here's where it gets interesting. At the same time Elliott was betting against gold miners, it established a major bullish position by purchasing call options on the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100. This new stake is valued at $750.4 million. So we're looking at a firm that's simultaneously pessimistic about certain sectors while embracing tech-heavy growth stocks.

Consumer Staples and Energy Under Pressure

The targeted approach continues with Elliott's other new positions. The firm's largest new bet? A $1.175 billion put position on the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP). Consumer staples are typically the defensive plays investors flee to during uncertain times, so betting against them suggests Elliott sees weakness where others might expect safety.

Elliott also opened a substantial $714.7 million put option on the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE). Between the consumer staples and energy shorts, plus the expanded gold miner position, you're seeing a firm that's comfortable making big contrarian calls on specific sectors rather than hiding in cash or broad market hedges.

The firm also cleaned house on a few positions during the quarter. It exited a put on the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), along with stakes in Liberty Broadband Corp. (LBRDK) and Western Digital Corp. (WDC). All of this activity helped push Elliott's total 13F portfolio value from $17.6 billion to $22.7 billion during the quarter.

What It All Means

So what's the thesis here? Elliott appears to be betting that tech will outperform while traditional defensive sectors like consumer staples struggle, that gold miners face headwinds despite gold's reputation as a safe haven, and that energy won't be the winner many investors might expect. It's the kind of positioning that only makes sense if you have a very specific view about how different corners of the market will perform.

Here's how the major moves break down:

As of Monday, futures for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones were trading higher following a mixed close on Friday.