Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed back above $95,000, and the timing is interesting. Japan just announced a policy shift that could change how money flows around the world, and it's the kind of thing that usually gets crypto traders paying attention.

Japan's Fiscal Shift Is About More Than Just Spending

According to Reuters on Monday, Japan is putting together a fiscal package worth over ¥17 trillion (around $110 billion) as it transitions away from three decades of deflation toward an environment with higher prices and higher interest rates. This isn't your typical stimulus package, though officials are careful to frame it that way.

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama explained the program is designed to help households manage rising costs while strengthening industries Japan views as strategically critical, particularly AI and semiconductors. The goal is stabilization rather than stimulus, aimed at easing the pressure on households without forcing the Bank of Japan into aggressive rate hikes.

Japan is trying to walk a tightrope here: provide cost-of-living relief while securing long-term industrial competitiveness as global supply chains reconfigure and geopolitical tensions reshape trade relationships.

Why This Matters Beyond Japan's Borders

Here's where it gets interesting for global markets. Japan is one of the world's largest holders of U.S. Treasuries. If domestic yields start rising, capital that's been parked in American debt could start flowing back home. Even modest increases in Japanese government bond returns could put pressure on U.S. long-term rates at exactly the moment when America is issuing record amounts of debt.

For decades, the yen has been the world's go-to funding currency because of Japan's low rates and relative stability. If this new spending plan strengthens the yen or increases its volatility, the global carry trade could start unwinding. That would tighten financial conditions everywhere, hitting equities first, then corporate credit, and eventually any asset class that depends on cheap, easy liquidity.

There's also a broader implication: if Japan can successfully execute a package of this size, it suggests that large, aging, heavily indebted economies might have more fiscal flexibility than markets previously believed. In that scenario, the U.S. could find itself watching from the sidelines while global markets assess just how much spillover a shift in Japan's policy mix can generate.

The Crypto Connection: Tax Cuts and Regulatory Clarity

Alongside the fiscal package, Japan's Financial Services Agency is preparing to reclassify Bitcoin and other digital assets as financial products. The practical effect? Cutting the tax rate on crypto gains from 55% down to 20%. That puts cryptocurrencies on similar footing with securities and opens the door for broader participation from both retail and institutional investors.

Liquidity Flows and Bitcoin's Historical Response

Analysts have noted a pattern: when Japan increases domestic spending, the yen typically weakens and global liquidity conditions improve. Bitcoin has historically been an early responder to these macro liquidity shifts. If this package gets finalized, it could be one of the strongest external tailwinds for Bitcoin heading into 2026.

Japan's cabinet is expected to approve the plan on November 21, with a supplementary budget of roughly ¥14 trillion ($95 billion). The measures include income tax relief, utility subsidies, gasoline tax adjustments, and targeted food program support.

The Chart Tells a Different Story

Bitcoin is trying to stabilize after a sharp breakdown that pushed it into one of the year's most critical support zones. Buyers have defended the $92,000 level twice in the past week, but momentum remains weak.

The 20-day exponential moving average near $102,000 is now the first resistance level. Above that, the 50-day EMA at $107,000 and the 100-day EMA at $109,000 form a thick resistance band. This stacked formation signals sustained downside pressure, the kind of setup where rallies get sold quickly rather than building into higher highs.

A descending trendline from the rejection at $123,000 continues to guide the structure lower. Each bounce into this line has faded almost immediately.

Critical Levels to Watch

Any recovery attempt needs a daily close above $102,000 to indicate the downside pressure is exhausting itself. Until that happens, sellers remain in control. The bull market support band on the weekly timeframe has flipped into resistance between $109,000 and $113,000, marking the dominant macro barrier.

Below current price, the $92,000 zone is the line in the sand. A clean break under this level exposes $88,000 and potentially $84,000 if liquidation flows accelerate. The fact that this range has held shows long-term buyers are still active, but every rebound has been shallow and unconvincing.

So the macro setup looks increasingly favorable, especially with Japan's fiscal push and tax reforms coming online. But the chart is telling traders to be patient. Sometimes the story takes a while to catch up with the price action.