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Currency Markets Prepare for Real Economic Data After Shutdown Ends

MarketDash Editorial Team
21 days ago
After 43 days of operating in the dark, forex traders are finally getting economic data back. The government shutdown has ended, nonfarm payrolls are coming Thursday, and markets are about to find out whether all that guesswork was even close to reality.

Financial markets just wrapped up a choppy but ultimately positive week, and the big story isn't what happened. It's what's about to happen now that the US government is actually open for business again.

After a record-breaking 43-day shutdown, the spending bill finally passed and cleared the path for something traders have been desperately missing: actual economic data. Trading without official numbers is like navigating in the dark, and after weeks of relying on surveys and educated guesses, the market is about to get some real information.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics wasted no time confirming that the long-delayed September nonfarm payrolls report will drop on Thursday, November 20. That's a big deal. Traders finally get a fresh anchor point instead of flying blind through their positioning decisions.

Meanwhile, Fed officials aren't exactly sympathetic to the data blackout. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Boston Fed President Susan Collins both pushed back hard against expectations for further rate cuts. Their argument? The absence of data doesn't mean the economy needs easier policy. Fair enough, but the upcoming numbers will give central bankers a much clearer picture of what's actually happening out there.

Politics shaped market sentiment too. President Donald Trump decided to exempt key food items like coffee, cocoa, and beef from his reciprocal tariffs. It's a direct response to mounting consumer frustration over grocery prices, and it shows how inflation at the supermarket checkout is still a political hot button.

The risk-off vibe pushed USD/JPY higher and gave the Swiss franc a boost. On the flip side, the Australian dollar and British pound couldn't keep pace with that strength.

Technical Setups Worth Watching

AUD/CHF

This pair has been dancing around the 0.52260 level since late June, but it's starting to show weakness. The October price action created a lower low, which is never a great sign if you're bullish.

As long as that 0.52260 level holds as resistance, the odds of further downside are growing. If the rally from early November turns out to be just a lower high, that bearish case gets even stronger.

GBP/SGD

The 1.71500 level is proving to be serious resistance for this pair. Price has attempted to break above it three separate times now, and it's failed every single attempt.

As long as GBP/SGD stays below that ceiling, the probability favors a move down toward 1.68700. Three failed breakout attempts tend to mean something, and right now that something looks bearish.

What's Coming This Week

The week ahead is shaping up to be a massive test for equity markets, and it centers on one company: Nvidia. The world's most valuable firm reports quarterly earnings on Wednesday, and this isn't just another earnings report. Given Nvidia's outsized market weight and its central role in the AI boom, this has become a de facto macro catalyst.

Any hint that data center demand is slowing or that capital expenditure guidance is getting more cautious could deepen the valuation reset that's already underway in the tech sector. On the other hand, another blowout quarter could stabilize sentiment fast and trigger short covering across semiconductors and mega-cap tech names.

Equally important is the return of the standard economic calendar. After weeks of noise and reliance on private surveys, markets will finally refocus on actual fundamentals. That delayed September nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday will be critical for shaping expectations around the Fed's 2026 interest rate path.

A solid but cooling labor market print would support the soft-landing narrative that equity bulls are counting on. A downside surprise, though, could reignite growth worries and push investors into defensive positioning.

Globally, there's plenty more to monitor. The lingering risk-off tone in tech, persistent weakness in crypto markets, and evolving rate-cut expectations in the UK and Europe are all in play. Firmer gilt yields and improved Eurozone trade data are adding new wrinkles to the global macro picture.

Bottom line: traders have been operating with one hand tied behind their backs for over a month. Now the data is coming back, and we're about to find out whether the market's positioning makes any sense or needs a serious reality check.

Back to News

Currency Markets Prepare for Real Economic Data After Shutdown Ends

MarketDash Editorial Team
21 days ago
After 43 days of operating in the dark, forex traders are finally getting economic data back. The government shutdown has ended, nonfarm payrolls are coming Thursday, and markets are about to find out whether all that guesswork was even close to reality.

Financial markets just wrapped up a choppy but ultimately positive week, and the big story isn't what happened. It's what's about to happen now that the US government is actually open for business again.

After a record-breaking 43-day shutdown, the spending bill finally passed and cleared the path for something traders have been desperately missing: actual economic data. Trading without official numbers is like navigating in the dark, and after weeks of relying on surveys and educated guesses, the market is about to get some real information.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics wasted no time confirming that the long-delayed September nonfarm payrolls report will drop on Thursday, November 20. That's a big deal. Traders finally get a fresh anchor point instead of flying blind through their positioning decisions.

Meanwhile, Fed officials aren't exactly sympathetic to the data blackout. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Boston Fed President Susan Collins both pushed back hard against expectations for further rate cuts. Their argument? The absence of data doesn't mean the economy needs easier policy. Fair enough, but the upcoming numbers will give central bankers a much clearer picture of what's actually happening out there.

Politics shaped market sentiment too. President Donald Trump decided to exempt key food items like coffee, cocoa, and beef from his reciprocal tariffs. It's a direct response to mounting consumer frustration over grocery prices, and it shows how inflation at the supermarket checkout is still a political hot button.

The risk-off vibe pushed USD/JPY higher and gave the Swiss franc a boost. On the flip side, the Australian dollar and British pound couldn't keep pace with that strength.

Technical Setups Worth Watching

AUD/CHF

This pair has been dancing around the 0.52260 level since late June, but it's starting to show weakness. The October price action created a lower low, which is never a great sign if you're bullish.

As long as that 0.52260 level holds as resistance, the odds of further downside are growing. If the rally from early November turns out to be just a lower high, that bearish case gets even stronger.

GBP/SGD

The 1.71500 level is proving to be serious resistance for this pair. Price has attempted to break above it three separate times now, and it's failed every single attempt.

As long as GBP/SGD stays below that ceiling, the probability favors a move down toward 1.68700. Three failed breakout attempts tend to mean something, and right now that something looks bearish.

What's Coming This Week

The week ahead is shaping up to be a massive test for equity markets, and it centers on one company: Nvidia. The world's most valuable firm reports quarterly earnings on Wednesday, and this isn't just another earnings report. Given Nvidia's outsized market weight and its central role in the AI boom, this has become a de facto macro catalyst.

Any hint that data center demand is slowing or that capital expenditure guidance is getting more cautious could deepen the valuation reset that's already underway in the tech sector. On the other hand, another blowout quarter could stabilize sentiment fast and trigger short covering across semiconductors and mega-cap tech names.

Equally important is the return of the standard economic calendar. After weeks of noise and reliance on private surveys, markets will finally refocus on actual fundamentals. That delayed September nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday will be critical for shaping expectations around the Fed's 2026 interest rate path.

A solid but cooling labor market print would support the soft-landing narrative that equity bulls are counting on. A downside surprise, though, could reignite growth worries and push investors into defensive positioning.

Globally, there's plenty more to monitor. The lingering risk-off tone in tech, persistent weakness in crypto markets, and evolving rate-cut expectations in the UK and Europe are all in play. Firmer gilt yields and improved Eurozone trade data are adding new wrinkles to the global macro picture.

Bottom line: traders have been operating with one hand tied behind their backs for over a month. Now the data is coming back, and we're about to find out whether the market's positioning makes any sense or needs a serious reality check.