Wall Street loves a good rivalry story. For weeks now, analysts have been debating whether challengers like Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) are finally closing the gap on the AI chip king. But as Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) prepares to report earnings Wednesday, CEO Jensen Huang has another opportunity to make one thing crystal clear: calling this a competition is generous at best.
The Numbers Don't Lie
Back in August, Nvidia guided for $54 billion in October-quarter revenue—a staggering 54% jump from the prior year. That's not just growth. That's the kind of acceleration that makes you check your calculator twice.
Meanwhile, AMD posted $9.25 billion in revenue for its third quarter, up a solid 36%. Nothing wrong with that growth rate in normal circumstances. But here's the thing: Nvidia was roughly at AMD's scale just two years ago. Since then, Nvidia's trajectory looks like a rocket launch while AMD climbs a steady hill.
Half A Trillion Dollars In Future Orders
At the recent GTC conference in Washington, Huang dropped a bombshell that didn't get nearly enough attention. Nvidia has racked up $500 billion in commitments for its next-generation Blackwell and Rubin chips. To put that in perspective, the company's entire revenue for the year ended January 2025 was $130 billion.
Most of those commitments won't even convert to revenue until 2026. Analysts are already projecting $207 billion in revenue for this fiscal year, and those estimates are starting to look conservative. When a company has future demand that dwarfs its current business by this magnitude, you're not talking about a competitive market anymore—you're watching one player rewrite the rules entirely.
The China Factor That Doesn't Matter
Huang hasn't been shy about warning investors regarding China's competitive threat and the risks of export restrictions. Yet here's the remarkable part: despite essentially losing access to the Chinese market, Nvidia is still delivering 50%-plus growth.
Expect plenty more discussion about China when Wednesday's earnings call happens, along with talk about Nvidia's strategic investments in its customer base. But the underlying message remains unchanged.
What This Means For Your Portfolio
The narrative that gets pushed—AMD versus Nvidia as some kind of heavyweight bout—makes for good headlines. The reality is more mundane and more dramatic at the same time. AMD is growing nicely. Nvidia is operating in an entirely different dimension.
Unless something fundamental shifts in the AI infrastructure market, this so-called rivalry remains what it's been for months: one company dominating while everyone else fights for second place. And each quarter, Huang shows up to earnings calls basically just to remind everyone how wide the moat has become.