Bitcoin (BTC) formed a death cross over the weekend, and the crypto world is parsing what this technically ominous signal actually means for prices ahead.

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen weighed in on X, noting that while death crosses have often marked local bottoms during bull runs, that playbook falls apart once the macro cycle ends. His take? If the current cycle is still alive, Bitcoin should bounce within the next week. If it doesn't, expect another leg down before a relief rally toward the 200-day simple moving average—likely forming a lower high that confirms a new downtrend.

Cowen's advice cuts through the noise: "Trade the market you have, not the market you want." His post has already racked up over a million views.

Market analyst Subu Trade offered some historical perspective. After previous death crosses in April 2025 and September 2023, Bitcoin posted positive returns across timeframes from one week to one year. Even following the August 2024 death cross, most periods showed green returns with only scattered exceptions.

But here's the catch: Bitcoin's recent weekly close below the 50-week moving average is historically a bearish late-cycle signal. Cowen estimates a 60-70% probability that the cycle top is already behind us. A quick recovery above $103,000 would reset those odds to a coin flip, but a second weekly close below the 50-week MA would strongly suggest the top is confirmed.

If the top is indeed in, Bitcoin likely heads lower before eventually rallying to the 200-day moving average—a move that would establish a lower high and reinforce the start of a broader downtrend. But if the cycle isn't over, the market should deliver a meaningful bounce within days.

The bottom line? Respect what the market is actually doing, not what you're hoping it will do.