Warren Buffett has achieved almost mythological status in the investing world, and for good reason. Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.A) equity portfolio has delivered impressive returns over decades, cementing his reputation as one of the greatest investors of all time.
But here's what makes Buffett different from many other investing legends: he's surprisingly humble about it all. He actively pushes back against the idea that he's some clairvoyant stock-picking wizard who always knows exactly when to buy and sell.
Yes, he does rigorous fundamental analysis to identify great businesses. That's table stakes. But Buffett talks more than almost any other prominent investor about the role of luck in his success — and about the many mistakes he's made along the way.
His latest letter to Berkshire shareholders, released on Monday, drove this point home. The brief, eight-page message mentioned "luck" 12 times, mostly discussing how it shaped his personal life and relationships.
"I was born in 1930, healthy, reasonably intelligent, white, male, and in America," Buffett wrote. "Wow! Thank you, Lady Luck."
He's been referring to this advantage for years as winning the "ovarian lottery." It's his way of acknowledging that circumstances beyond his control gave him a massive head start.
Luck in Stock Picking
Luck doesn't just apply to life circumstances — it matters in investing too. Because here's the thing about building a successful portfolio: most of your picks will probably underperform. That's just how the math works. But the few winners can deliver such extraordinary performance that they carry your entire portfolio to market-beating returns.
Buffett addressed this directly in his 2023 annual letter to shareholders.
"Over the years, I have made many mistakes," he wrote. "Our satisfactory results have been the product of about a dozen truly good decisions — that would be about one every five years."
Think about that. One of the most successful investors in history attributes his success to roughly 12 great decisions over six decades. He walked through examples like Coca-Cola (KO) and American Express (AXP), which multiplied in value many times over while returning massive cash dividends.
This is a critical insight. Even legendary investors make tons of mistakes. Market-beating portfolios often contain more underperformers than outperformers. The key is letting your winners run and not letting your losers sink you.
Don't Beat Yourself Up
People love hearing from Buffett because, despite being a billionaire, his insights on life and investing feel genuinely relatable.
In both domains, many things sit beyond our control. Good and bad things will happen that aren't our fault. It's just luck. And we'll all make plenty of mistakes along the way. Even the most accomplished experts across every field mess up regularly. That's part of the process.
Buffett himself made what he's called a "monumentally stupid decision" when he chose not to sell his stake in Berkshire Hathaway back in 1964, when it was still a struggling textile company. That business eventually failed. (He kept the company's name anyway, which is kind of hilarious.)
"I'm happy to say I feel better about the second half of my life than the first," Buffett wrote on Monday. "My advice: Don't beat yourself up over past mistakes — learn at least a little from them and move on."
Coming from someone who built one of the most successful investment vehicles in history, that's advice worth taking seriously.