When Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) reports earnings on Wednesday, it won't just be another tech earnings call. According to some of Wall Street's most prominent voices, it might be the single most important market event of the year.
The Super Bowl Analogy Isn't Hyperbole
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives didn't mince words when speaking with CNBC on Monday. He called Nvidia's earnings "a Super Bowl not just for tech," but for the entire market. And he means it literally—Ives predicts trading floors around the world will fall silent as the numbers drop.
"It all comes down to on Wednesday night, you're going to be able to hear a pin drop on trading floors around the world," Ives said.
The reasoning behind the drama is straightforward. Nvidia has become the bellwether for the AI revolution, and CEO Jensen Huang—whom Ives dubbed the "godfather of AI"—sits at the center of it all. The demand picture tells the story: global orders for Nvidia's chips are running roughly 12-to-1 against available supply. In other words, supply constraints are the only thing holding back even more explosive growth.
Wall Street Might Still Be Too Conservative
Deepwater Asset Management's Gene Munster has a different concern: he thinks analysts are still underestimating what Nvidia can deliver. During the same segment, Munster pointed to guidance Huang laid out at the company's GTC conference, where the CEO sketched a path toward roughly $500 billion in revenue.
That roadmap implies about 54% growth next year. Wall Street's consensus? Just 41%. That's a pretty significant gap, and Munster argues it matters. Nvidia doesn't necessarily need to post 54% growth this week, but it does need to signal that it can comfortably beat those analyst targets going forward.
The implication is clear: even with sky-high expectations, there's room for Nvidia to surprise to the upside.
Competition Isn't The Real Risk Right Now
What about the threat of a rival suddenly swooping in with a better chip? Munster isn't worried—at least not for the next six quarters. He dismissed the idea that meaningful competition could emerge in the near term.
Both analysts emphasized that the AI cycle is still in its early stages. They compared the current moment to the "third inning" of a much longer game, suggesting years of growth still lie ahead.
Munster also addressed recent stock sales by high-profile investors like Peter Thiel and SoftBank Group (SFTBY). He characterized these moves as straightforward profit-taking, not a signal that Nvidia's bull run is over.
The Numbers Everyone's Watching
Analysts project Nvidia will report third-quarter revenue of $54.84 billion, a substantial jump from $35.08 billion in the same period last year. The company has beaten Wall Street's revenue expectations for 12 consecutive quarters—a streak that has become almost routine.
Nvidia's own guidance had pegged third-quarter revenue between $52.92 billion and $55.08 billion, so consensus expectations sit near the high end of that range.
On Monday, Nvidia shares closed at $186.60, down 1.88%, and slipped further to $185.33 in after-hours trading. Despite the modest decline, the company continues to rank in the 98th percentile for growth and the 92nd percentile for quality relative to industry peers.
Why This Matters Beyond Nvidia
The reason Ives calls this a Super Bowl for the entire market, not just tech, is that Nvidia has become a proxy for the AI investment thesis. If Nvidia stumbles, it raises questions about whether the AI boom is real or overhyped. If it delivers—especially if it beats elevated expectations—it validates the massive capital flowing into AI infrastructure.
Wednesday's report isn't just about one company's quarterly performance. It's a referendum on whether we're witnessing a genuine technological shift or just another hype cycle. And that's why, as Ives put it, you'll be able to hear a pin drop when the numbers hit.