Bullish (BLSH) is gearing up to report third-quarter earnings before Wednesday's opening bell, and the setup is interesting. The billionaire Peter Thiel-backed cryptocurrency exchange is navigating life as a newly public company while trying to establish itself as a credible alternative to the industry's big players.
The Numbers Wall Street is Watching
Here's where expectations stand: Analysts are penciling in earnings per share of $0.09, which would represent a pretty substantial drop from the $0.93 per share Bullish posted last quarter. That's the kind of sequential decline that makes investors nervous, though it's worth noting that crypto markets can be volatile quarter to quarter.
On the revenue side, things look more encouraging. The consensus estimate sits at $72.39 million, up from $58.63 million in the previous quarter. So you've got this interesting dynamic where the top line is growing but the bottom line is compressing, which raises questions about what's happening with margins and operating expenses.
The stock itself trades around $36.75 after closing down 4.50% on Monday, and then slipping another 0.67% in after-hours action. But here's what's intriguing: analysts collectively see significant upside from here. The consensus price target stands at $56.91 across 12 analysts, implying meaningful appreciation potential. Citigroup is the most bullish, setting a $70 target back in September. Looking at the three most recent ratings specifically, the average target climbs to $62, which would represent about 70% upside from current levels.
Technical Picture Gets Murky
If you're into technical analysis, Bullish is serving up some conflicting signals right now. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator, which traders use to spot momentum shifts by comparing exponential moving averages, is flashing a "Sell" signal according to TradingView data.
But then you've got the Williams Percent Change indicator, designed to identify overbought and oversold conditions, pointing the other way with a "Buy" rating. It's the kind of technical setup that basically tells you the chart isn't going to make your decision any easier.
The Coinbase Challenger Story
Bullish made quite the entrance when it went public through an initial public offering in August. The company raised $1.213 billion in what turned out to be one of the year's standout debuts. Shares opened at $90.45, well above the $37 IPO price, which is the kind of pop that gets attention.
The Peter Thiel backing gives the exchange some heavyweight credibility, but Bullish has also attracted another high-profile investor: Cathie Wood's Ark Invest. The firm has been actively accumulating shares, most recently scooping up over $10 million worth on Monday across several of its ETFs. That buying came through the Ark Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF), ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), and ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW).
The big question is whether Bullish can carve out meaningful market share in an industry dominated by Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN). Market data shows that BLSH has exhibited weaker price trends across short, medium, and long-term timeframes, which suggests the stock is still finding its footing in the public markets.
Wednesday's earnings report will offer some clues about whether the exchange is building sustainable momentum or if the post-IPO reality is proving more challenging than the debut day excitement suggested. With analysts seeing substantial upside but technical indicators mixed and the stock trending lower, it's a company worth watching as the crypto exchange landscape continues to evolve.