Central banks are loading up on gold, and they're not exactly broadcasting it. Goldman Sachs expects another significant wave of purchases for November as policymakers worldwide hedge against geopolitical uncertainty and financial market volatility. It's part of a broader shift in how countries manage their reserves, and it's pushing Goldman to stand by its eye-popping $4,900 gold price target for 2026.

According to Reuters, Goldman's estimates show central banks bought 64 tons of gold in September, a substantial jump from the 21 tons they projected for August. The trend suggests robust buying will continue through year-end, particularly from emerging-market central banks looking to diversify away from dollar-dominated assets.

Here's where it gets interesting: most of this buying is happening in the shadows. The World Gold Council estimates that as little as one-third of global central bank gold purchases are actually reported to the IMF. That's a dramatic shift from just four years ago, when roughly 90% of purchases were disclosed. Someone's buying a lot of gold, but they're not keen on sharing the details.

The China Mystery

China exemplifies this secretive approach. Official monthly disclosures show modest purchases of 1.9 tons in August, 1.9 tons in July, and 2.2 tons in June. Few market watchers believe those numbers tell the whole story.

Société Générale estimates China could be accumulating as much as 250 tons this year when measured through trade flows, which would make the country responsible for more than one-third of global central bank demand. That's a massive gap between what's reported and what's likely happening.

Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle, doesn't even try to estimate China's actual purchases anymore. The strategy is designed for maximum opacity.

"Unlike oil, where you can track it with satellites, with gold you can't. There's just no way to know where this stuff goes and who is buying it," he told The Financial Times.

This lack of transparency forces traders to rely on indirect detective work: tracking shipments of newly cast 400-ounce bars through London to Chinese refiners, analyzing gaps between China's domestic production and imports, and monitoring changes in commercial bank inventories. It's far from precise.

Nicky Shiels, an analyst at Swiss refinery MKS Pamp, offered a blunt explanation for the secrecy: "It makes sense to just report the bare minimum, if need be, for fear of reprisal from the U.S. administration. Gold is seen as a pure USA hedge. In most emerging markets, it is in central banks' interest not to fully disclose purchases."

Market Implications

The reluctance to report purchases isn't just about geopolitics. It also reflects concerns about front-running in an increasingly illiquid physical gold market. The London Bullion Market Association, which used to offer next-day settlement, reported delivery timelines stretching as long as eight weeks this year. When you're trying to buy tons of gold without moving the market, announcing your intentions isn't helpful.

Despite gold's impressive run in 2025, major institutions believe the rally has legs. With physical supply getting tighter and central bank demand showing no signs of slowing, Goldman Sachs sees the yellow metal heading toward its $4,900 target for 2026. That would represent continued significant gains from current levels.

Price Watch: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) is up 51.43% year-to-date, reflecting the broader strength in gold prices driven by this sustained institutional demand.