Global-E Online Ltd. (GLBE) is set to report third-quarter earnings on Wednesday, and Needham analyst Scott Berg thinks investors should expect another beat—just don't get too excited about the magnitude.

Berg, who maintains a Buy rating and $40 price target on the stock, says the cross-border ecommerce platform delivered solid Q2 results with strong gross merchandise value (GMV) growth. He's expecting another quarterly beat this time around, but with an asterisk.

The problem? The macro environment and competitive landscape could take some shine off the numbers. Berg notes that while retail and ecommerce sales reports have been better than expected—suggesting "any macro headwind is minimal at worst"—the overall environment remains challenging enough to potentially limit upside.

Perhaps more importantly, there's a specific wildcard investors will be watching closely: the impact of Shopify Inc. (SHOP) and its Managed Markets transition. Berg calls this "one of the most pressing areas of focus heading into the print," which makes sense given Shopify's significant role in the ecommerce ecosystem where Global-E operates.

GLBE Price Action: Shares of Global-E Online had risen 1.31% to $35.59 at the time of publication on Tuesday.