Something odd is happening in crypto markets. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) aren't just underperforming stocks—they're getting beat by altcoins too. That's unusual, and it tells us the market is trading almost entirely on macro signals rather than anything happening inside crypto itself.
The Macro Trigger Behind the Selloff
New research from Wintermute reveals the latest crypto selloff wasn't caused by structural weakness in digital assets. Instead, it was a macro-driven flush, sparked by a rapid repricing of December rate-cut expectations.
After Fed Chair Jerome Powell walked back his earlier dovish comments, the odds of a December rate cut collapsed from roughly 70% to 42% in just one week. U.S. risk assets tumbled, and highly levered crypto markets took the sharpest hit.
The damage was widespread. The GMCI-30 Index dropped around 12%, while AI, DePIN, Gaming, and Meme sectors fell between 14% and 18%.
Wintermute noted that while positioning has reset and the macro backdrop remains constructive, sentiment won't improve until Bitcoin can reclaim the top of its trading range. With crypto moving in lockstep with macro policy expectations, the next catalyst will likely come from monetary policy, not from within crypto itself. Once the major coins stabilize, broader market recovery should follow.
Bitcoin Breaks Below Key Level
Bitcoin's decisive break below $100,000—its first since May—came after repeated failed defenses and persistent U.S.-session selling. Whale trimming contributed, a typical Q4/Q1 phenomenon, though the pace accelerated this cycle on expectations of weaker flows ahead.
Here's the crucial part: the selloff lacked any fundamental trigger. The move was macroeconomic, not crypto-native.
The macro backdrop actually remains supportive. Japan is launching a $110 billion stimulus package. China continues monetary easing. U.S. quantitative tightening ends next month, and new fiscal channels, including proposed $2,000 U.S. stimulus checks, are still in play.
In other words, this wasn't about crypto breaking. It was about rate expectations shifting—and crypto just happened to be the most leveraged thing in the room when the music stopped.