The CBOE Volatility Index is up 45% this month as of mid-morning November 18 trading, and that's not the kind of number you see every day. This rare November volatility spike arrived precisely as the S&P 500 index broke below its 50-day moving average for the first time in 138 sessions, which naturally raises the question that keeps retail traders up at night: Is this a buyable dip or are we staring at something uglier?
The Longest Streak Since 2007 Just Snapped
The S&P 500 (SPY) closed below its 50-day moving average on Monday, ending a 138-session run above that line. According to LPL Financial chief technical strategist Adam Turnquist, that was the longest stretch above the 50-day moving average since 2007 and the sixth longest in 75 years of market history.
This kind of technical break doesn't happen often. In fact, it's occurred only 17 other times since 1950. When it did, the index posted some interesting forward returns:
- 0.8% over one month
- 3.0% over three months
- 5.4% over six months
- 6.2% over twelve months
The index finished higher 65–77% of the time, depending on which horizon you're looking at. For context, typical S&P 500 returns run 0.8%, 2.3%, 4.6%, and 9.5% over those same periods.
The takeaway? This type of breakdown can sting in the short term, but it hasn't historically killed entire bull markets.
"While history suggests this break isn't inherently bearish, the index also fell below the lower boundary of its rising price channel yesterday. Key downside support now sits near the November lows at 6,631 and October lows at 6,550," Turnquist said.
Inside the VIX Spike
Months when volatility explodes by at least 45% aren't exactly common. They cluster around disruptive moments in market history:
- April 2022: 62.4%
- Nov. 2021: 67.2%
- Jan. 2021: 45.5%
- Feb. 2020: 112.9%
- Oct. 2018: 75.2%
- Feb. 2018: 46.2%
- Aug. 2015: 134.2%
- Jul. 2011: 52.9%
- May 2010: 45.4%
- Oct. 2008: 52%
- Sept. 2008: 90.75%
- Jul. 2007: 45%
- Feb. 2007: 48%
- Aug. 1998: 78.6%
- Oct. 1997: 53.2%
This November's move would mark the largest monthly VIX increase since April 2022, when inflation fears and aggressive rate hikes crushed risk sentiment across the board.
Historical data shows how the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) reacted during the 14 previous VIX shocks of this magnitude.
What Happened After Previous VIX Explosions
| SPY Entry Date | Forward 1M % | Forward 3M % | Forward 6M % | Forward 12M % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997-11-03 | 4.02 | 6.98 | 17.25 | 18.15 |
| 1998-09-01 | -1.25 | 17.55 | 24.95 | 33.60 |
| 2007-03-01 | 1.06 | 9.12 | 4.29 | -4.76 |
| 2007-08-01 | -0.19 | 4.53 | -6.19 | -13.39 |
| 2008-10-01 | -17.03 | -22.25 | -28.11 | -11.25 |
| 2008-11-03 | -10.08 | -14.19 | -5.12 | 7.76 |
| 2010-06-01 | -4.01 | -2.06 | 10.82 | 25.45 |
| 2011-08-01 | -5.51 | -0.14 | 1.97 | 6.93 |
| 2015-09-01 | 0.19 | 9.86 | 4.17 | 13.35 |
| 2018-11-01 | 2.12 | -0.15 | 5.27 | 12.38 |
| 2020-03-02 | -16.61 | -1.15 | 13.42 | 25.06 |
| 2021-02-01 | 1.38 | 11.16 | 16.31 | 19.58 |
| 2021-12-01 | 5.43 | -3.28 | -7.35 | -9.57 |
| 2022-05-02 | -1.18 | -1.55 | -6.82 | -1.56 |
| Average | -2.98 | 1.03 | 3.21 | 8.70 |
The Real Answer: It Depends on Your Timeline
A 45% monthly jump in the VIX has never been a neutral event. Looking at the 14 episodes since 1997, the S&P 500 averaged a 2.98% loss one month later and finished lower in exactly half of those cases. Translation: buying the first dip after a volatility shock has often been painful.
Three months out, the picture gets slightly better but still messy. Seven of those 14 episodes produced negative returns at the three-month mark, despite an average gain of 1.03%. The story improves as your time horizon extends.
Six-month returns averaged 3.21%. Twelve-month returns averaged 8.7%, with gains in ten out of 14 periods. The only real disasters happened during 2008 and the late-2021 bear market transition.
Here's the pattern: when the VIX explodes, the immediate aftermath is usually chop, not collapse. Patience has historically mattered more than speed. Traders who waited for a second wave of selling often secured better entry points than those who rushed to catch the first falling knife. The market doesn't reward urgency during volatility spikes—it rewards discipline.