If you've been wondering when Tesla Inc. (TSLA) might experience the kind of explosive valuation growth that Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) has enjoyed, CEO Elon Musk has an answer. And it hinges on two specific milestones that could fundamentally reshape how investors value the electric vehicle maker.
The Magic Formula: Autonomous Driving Plus Humanoid Robots
Earlier this week on X, a user named Gali posed the question many Tesla investors have been asking: when will the company's stock have its own Nvidia moment? Musk's response was characteristically bold. There will be a "major valuation change" for Tesla once the company achieves "unsupervised self-driving at scale," he explained.
But that's just the appetizer. Musk added that an "even larger valuation change" awaits when the Optimus humanoid robot reaches volume production. This isn't new territory for Musk, who has previously claimed that Optimus would represent more than 80% of Tesla's future value. That's a remarkable statement for a company still primarily known for making cars.
The Full Self-Driving Progress Report
Tesla's path to unsupervised autonomous driving has been gaining some notable endorsements lately. Andrej Karpathy, Tesla's former AI lead, recently shared his experience testing the FSD system in his HW4 Tesla Model X. His verdict? "Basically a flawless drive." He compared the experience to riding on a magnetic levitation train, which is high praise coming from someone who understands the technology's inner workings.
Musk has also been defending Tesla's approach to AI training, particularly in response to questions about the company's spending compared to other tech giants. He argues that Tesla's spending isn't a "limiting factor" because the company's inference computing happens in the car during actual driving. This gives Tesla access to massive amounts of real-world data to continuously train and improve the system, a different approach than competitors relying heavily on simulation.
The Optimus Vision Gets Bigger
Musk's ambitions for Optimus have expanded well beyond factory floors and warehouses. He recently suggested the robot would be "great" for Japan, which faces significant labor shortages. But his claims go much further than solving workforce gaps.
"Optimus will actually eliminate poverty," Musk declared, calling the robot an "infinite money glitch." During Tesla's third-quarter earnings call, he painted an even more ambitious picture, suggesting Optimus would enable universal income and excel in specialized fields like surgery. "Optimus will be an incredible surgeon. Imagine if everyone had access to an incredible surgeon," he told investors.
These are extraordinary claims, and whether they materialize remains to be seen. But they illustrate how Musk views these projects as potentially transformative beyond just Tesla's business.
The Nvidia Benchmark
The comparison to Nvidia isn't arbitrary. The chipmaker recently crossed the $5 trillion valuation mark, surpassing tech giants like Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT). Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang celebrated the milestone while setting his sights on $500 billion in revenue. "I think we are probably the first technology company in history to have visibility into half a trillion dollars," Huang said.
Nvidia's Q3 earnings call on Wednesday is being watched closely as a bellwether for the entire AI industry. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives compared the importance of the earnings call to the "Super Bowl," reflecting just how central Nvidia has become to AI investment narratives.
That's the kind of trajectory Musk envisions for Tesla once autonomous driving and robotics hit their stride. Whether Tesla can replicate Nvidia's success depends on actually delivering these technologies at scale, something that has proven more challenging than anticipated over the years.
Price Action: TSLA slipped 1.88% to $401.25 at market close, but fell 0.72% to $398.38 at the end of the regular trading session.