Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) is heading into its third quarter earnings report without the usual momentum, and that's putting it mildly. The stock has shed about 15% since late October, and while it's not exactly in freefall, it's not inspiring confidence either. The chart tells a story of stabilization rather than strength—a tight, coiled setup that could spring in either direction depending on what CEO Jensen Huang says after the bell.

Technical Reset or Warning Sign?

At $182.29, Nvidia sits below its eight-day simple moving average at $189.16, its 20-day SMA at $193.18, and its 50-day SMA at $186.29. That sounds bearish on paper, but here's the thing: the stock keeps finding buyers right around the 100-day moving average near $180. As long as that level holds, the pullback looks more like healthy consolidation than the start of something uglier.

Jake Behan, Head of Capital Markets at Direxion, puts it in perspective: "Since late October, Nvidia is down about 15%, but technically it's showing signs of stabilizing. RSI is in the mid-40s, volume has fallen during the downtrend, and the stock is sitting right on its 100-day moving average around $180, a level where it has found support recently."

That's the kind of setup traders actually like going into a major catalyst—assuming the catalyst delivers.

What the Numbers Need to Show

With RSI at 43.26, Nvidia isn't overbought or oversold. It's just sitting there, waiting. The 200-day moving average is way down at $152.17, which means the long-term uptrend is still very much alive. But tonight's report isn't really about the numbers themselves. It's about whether Jensen Huang can convince the market that AI demand is still running hot.

"If Jensen Huang can convince traders that demand is still outpacing supply, the whole market exhales. If not, the current rotation out of tech could accelerate fast," Behan explains.

A bullish guide could flip this 15% pullback into a launchpad for the next rally. A softer outlook? That becomes ammunition for anyone arguing the AI trade needs a breather.

More Than Just One Stock

Here's the part that matters beyond Nvidia shareholders: this earnings report is going to move more than just NVDA. As Behan puts it, "Nvidia is the gravitational center of the AI universe and even if you don't own it, you're going to feel its pull."

He's right. This isn't just a quarterly check-in for one chipmaker. It's a referendum on the entire AI ecosystem, and traders across the tech sector are positioned accordingly. Whatever happens after the bell, expect the ripples to spread wide.

The chart is tight, the setup is clean, and the stakes are high. Now we just need to hear what Huang has to say about where demand goes from here.