Sometimes the most revealing economic data doesn't come from the Federal Reserve or the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Sometimes it comes from the CEO of Home Depot Inc. (HD), standing in front of investors and dropping a statistic that crystallizes exactly what's broken.

This week, that moment arrived. CEO Ted Decker revealed that housing turnover has hit "40-year lows... at 2.9% turnover." Translation: Americans aren't moving. And when Americans don't move, they don't remodel their kitchens, upgrade their bathrooms, or invest in new flooring.

The Problem Nobody Sees Coming

Here's the thing about housing turnover—it doesn't show up in GDP reports. Consumer confidence looks fine. Personal consumption expenditures seem steady. But beneath the surface, there's a structural slowdown grinding away at the home improvement industry.

Decker laid it out plainly: even with strong macroeconomic indicators, the real problem is that the housing market has essentially frozen. "Housing has been soft for some time... higher interest rates and affordability concerns," he explained. But the surprise isn't just that turnover slowed—it's that it collapsed to levels not seen since the early 1980s.

When homes don't change hands, renovation cycles stall. Projects get delayed. Discretionary upgrades? Those get pushed indefinitely into the future. And Home Depot feels every bit of that hesitation.

Healthy Consumers, Missing Catalyst

The irony is that consumers themselves aren't the problem. "We still believe we have one of the healthiest consumer segments in the whole economy," Decker said. Americans have money. They just don't have a reason to spend it on home improvement right now.

What's missing is the spark—the catalyst that gets people back into the housing market. A home purchase typically triggers thousands of dollars in renovation spending. Without that trigger, demand flatlines.

Making matters worse, the recent quarter saw virtually zero storm activity. "Truly zero... we saw that most acutely in October," Decker noted. No hurricanes, no severe weather events, no emergency repairs needed. In a strange twist, clear skies actually hurt business.

Stuck in Neutral

Strip away the storm impact, and Home Depot says its underlying business comp is holding around 1%. Not terrible, but not exactly thrilling either. And the company doesn't see that changing anytime soon: "We just don't see the catalyst to increase that underlying storm-adjusted demand in the market."

Without a meaningful drop in mortgage rates, improved affordability, or a sudden surge in housing inventory, the entire home improvement sector remains stuck. It's pedaling hard but barely moving forward.

The Real Story for 2025

For investors watching the broader economy, this is the quiet headwind that deserves attention. Not inflation volatility. Not consumer sentiment swings. Not promotional pressures during the holidays.

It's turnover. Or more precisely, the historic absence of it.

A 40-year housing freeze keeps the entire ecosystem locked in place. Until something shifts—whether that's lower rates, better affordability, or simply time—the home improvement sector is going to keep feeling like it's running uphill. And Home Depot's warning is the clearest sign yet that this problem isn't going away quietly.