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Home Depot's Quarter Gets Rained Out — Literally

MarketDash Editorial Team
18 days ago
Home Depot missed sales expectations as a quiet hurricane season and sluggish housing market dampened results. Despite near-term headwinds, analysts see the retailer as a long-term winner with solid fundamentals.

Home Depot Inc. (HD) shares took a hit in Wednesday trading after the home improvement giant reported fiscal third-quarter results that fell short of expectations. The culprit? A surprisingly calm hurricane season and a housing market that still can't find its footing.

Here's what Wall Street had to say about the results:

  • BofA Securities analyst Robert Ohmes kept his Buy rating but trimmed his price target from $450 to $430.
  • DA Davidson analyst Michael Baker maintained his Buy rating while cutting his target from $475 to $430.
  • Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joseph Feldman held onto his Outperform rating but slashed his target from $455 to $430.
  • Goldman Sachs analyst Kate McShane stuck with her Buy rating while lowering her target from $444 to $406.

The Numbers Tell a Stormy Story (Or Lack Thereof)

Home Depot delivered adjusted earnings of $3.74 per share, missing the Street's $3.84 estimate, according to Ohmes. Comparable sales barely budged, with total comps up just 0.2% and U.S. comps climbing a meager 0.1%.

The primary drag? "The lack of storm demand," Ohmes noted. It's a weird thing to miss a hurricane, but Home Depot typically sees a boost from storm-related purchases. This year's unusually quiet season meant no surge in emergency supplies, generators, or repair materials. The analyst lowered his price target to reflect "weak housing turnover and incremental consumer uncertainty."

Housing Recovery Keeps Getting Pushed Back

Baker from DA Davidson pointed out that Home Depot blamed the quarterly miss and reduced full-year guidance on "primarily due to tougher comparisons against last year's storm season." There's also pressure from the company's product mix shifting toward lower-margin wholesale businesses.

While Home Depot continues grabbing market share even in this sluggish environment, "a bottom in the housing recovery cycle has been pushed out from 2025," Baker wrote. That's not what anyone wanted to hear.

Spring Fever Faded Fast

The brief uptick in demand during spring and summer turned out to be "short-lived," with momentum fading as the third quarter wore on, according to Feldman from Telsey Advisory. The silver lining? Underlying demand remained stable in both quarters when you strip out storm-related sales.

Big-ticket projects are still struggling. While shoppers are upgrading their purchases on smaller items, major renovations like kitchen, flooring, and bathroom remodels remain depressed. Still, Feldman sees reasons for optimism: "Overall, while the near-term is a bit weaker than previously anticipated, Home Depot should remain a long-term winner in retail, given its best-in-class execution, digital prowess, and pent-up maintenance and repair activity."

Month-by-Month Deceleration

McShane from Goldman Sachs highlighted how comparable sales growth decelerated throughout the quarter: "with August at +2.2%, September at +0.3%, and October at -1.7%." The company had expected sequential improvement in demand during the second half of 2025, but that hasn't materialized.

Management's updated full-year guidance accounts for the third quarter performance and "continued pressure in the fourth quarter from the lack of storm activity, ongoing consumer uncertainty and housing pressure," McShane added.

Home Depot shares were down 1.05% at $332.94 at the time of publication on Wednesday.

Back to News

Home Depot's Quarter Gets Rained Out — Literally

MarketDash Editorial Team
18 days ago
Home Depot missed sales expectations as a quiet hurricane season and sluggish housing market dampened results. Despite near-term headwinds, analysts see the retailer as a long-term winner with solid fundamentals.

Home Depot Inc. (HD) shares took a hit in Wednesday trading after the home improvement giant reported fiscal third-quarter results that fell short of expectations. The culprit? A surprisingly calm hurricane season and a housing market that still can't find its footing.

Here's what Wall Street had to say about the results:

  • BofA Securities analyst Robert Ohmes kept his Buy rating but trimmed his price target from $450 to $430.
  • DA Davidson analyst Michael Baker maintained his Buy rating while cutting his target from $475 to $430.
  • Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joseph Feldman held onto his Outperform rating but slashed his target from $455 to $430.
  • Goldman Sachs analyst Kate McShane stuck with her Buy rating while lowering her target from $444 to $406.

The Numbers Tell a Stormy Story (Or Lack Thereof)

Home Depot delivered adjusted earnings of $3.74 per share, missing the Street's $3.84 estimate, according to Ohmes. Comparable sales barely budged, with total comps up just 0.2% and U.S. comps climbing a meager 0.1%.

The primary drag? "The lack of storm demand," Ohmes noted. It's a weird thing to miss a hurricane, but Home Depot typically sees a boost from storm-related purchases. This year's unusually quiet season meant no surge in emergency supplies, generators, or repair materials. The analyst lowered his price target to reflect "weak housing turnover and incremental consumer uncertainty."

Housing Recovery Keeps Getting Pushed Back

Baker from DA Davidson pointed out that Home Depot blamed the quarterly miss and reduced full-year guidance on "primarily due to tougher comparisons against last year's storm season." There's also pressure from the company's product mix shifting toward lower-margin wholesale businesses.

While Home Depot continues grabbing market share even in this sluggish environment, "a bottom in the housing recovery cycle has been pushed out from 2025," Baker wrote. That's not what anyone wanted to hear.

Spring Fever Faded Fast

The brief uptick in demand during spring and summer turned out to be "short-lived," with momentum fading as the third quarter wore on, according to Feldman from Telsey Advisory. The silver lining? Underlying demand remained stable in both quarters when you strip out storm-related sales.

Big-ticket projects are still struggling. While shoppers are upgrading their purchases on smaller items, major renovations like kitchen, flooring, and bathroom remodels remain depressed. Still, Feldman sees reasons for optimism: "Overall, while the near-term is a bit weaker than previously anticipated, Home Depot should remain a long-term winner in retail, given its best-in-class execution, digital prowess, and pent-up maintenance and repair activity."

Month-by-Month Deceleration

McShane from Goldman Sachs highlighted how comparable sales growth decelerated throughout the quarter: "with August at +2.2%, September at +0.3%, and October at -1.7%." The company had expected sequential improvement in demand during the second half of 2025, but that hasn't materialized.

Management's updated full-year guidance accounts for the third quarter performance and "continued pressure in the fourth quarter from the lack of storm activity, ongoing consumer uncertainty and housing pressure," McShane added.

Home Depot shares were down 1.05% at $332.94 at the time of publication on Wednesday.