Sometimes lowering expectations is exactly what investors want to hear. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) issued significantly reduced production guidance for its flagship Grasberg mine in Indonesia, and Wall Street responded by upgrading the stock. The reason? Clarity beats uncertainty, even when the clarity isn't particularly rosy.
The backdrop here involves a September mud-flow incident that forced a temporary shutdown at the Grasberg Block Cave, which holds roughly half of the district's reserves. About 800,000 tonnes of wet material flowed through multiple levels, damaging infrastructure in the PB1C zone and disrupting recovery efforts across sections PB1S and PB1C.
After completing its investigation, Freeport delivered the verdict: 2026 production is now expected to hit 1.0 billion pounds of copper and 0.9 million ounces of gold. For 2027, the company projects 1.5 billion pounds of copper and 1.2 million ounces of gold. Those numbers fall 8-19% below what analysts had penciled in previously.
Yet Scotiabank analyst Orest Wowkodaw upgraded Freeport to Sector Outperform from Sector Perform following the announcement. His logic? The company now offers improved multi-year visibility, maintains a strong balance sheet, and trades at an attractive medium-term valuation—creating what he calls a favorable risk-reward setup.
Wowkodaw reduced his 12-month price target to $47 from $51, based on a blend of 7.5× average 2026-2027 EV/EBITDA and 1.8× the firm's 8% net asset value per share estimate. He slashed his 2025-27 EBITDA forecasts by roughly 11% annually and trimmed his NAV estimate to $23.04.
But here's the kicker: even with those downward revisions, Freeport's valuation multiples—8.4×, 7.0×, and 5.3× EV/EBITDA across the next three years—look discounted relative to large-cap copper peers.
The operational recovery timeline adds some patience to the equation. While the DMLZ and Big Gossan mines restarted in October, Freeport plans a phased restart of Grasberg Block Cave beginning in the second quarter of 2026, with a longer ramp-up period than originally anticipated. Capital expenditure guidance for 2026 dropped to $4.1 billion from earlier estimates of $5.2 billion, reflecting deferred spending tied to the delayed restart.
Notably, Freeport's 2028-29 production estimates remain broadly in line with previous expectations, suggesting the mud-flow incident created a temporary setback rather than permanent damage to the mine's long-term potential.
Other analysts echoed the cautiously optimistic sentiment. Morgan Stanley's Carlos De Alba maintained his Overweight rating while lowering his price target from $46 to $44. BMO Capital Markets analyst Katja Jancic reiterated her Outperform rating and trimmed her target from $48 to $47, reflecting the updated operational assumptions.
The market seemed to agree with the analysts' take. FCX shares traded higher by 3.42% to $41.37 on Wednesday, suggesting investors appreciated the reset and are willing to look past the near-term production shortfall toward the longer-term recovery trajectory.