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Goldman Sachs Says This Rare-Earth Miner Is Essential to U.S. Strategy—And Has 32% Upside

MarketDash Editorial Team
18 days ago
MP Materials surged 9% after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a Buy rating, calling it America's answer to China's rare-earth dominance. With $1.55 billion in government backing and partnerships with Apple and GM, the company is building a complete domestic magnet supply chain.

MP Materials Corp. (MP) jumped as much as 9% on Wednesday, becoming the top performer in the Russell 1000, after Goldman Sachs put out a research note that basically said: this company is now critical infrastructure.

The Nevada-based rare-earth miner operates the only significant rare-earth mine in the United States, and it's racing to build something that doesn't currently exist—a complete domestic supply chain for the magnets that power everything from electric vehicles to fighter jets. Goldman initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $77 price target, implying 32% upside from current levels.

Why Wall Street Is Suddenly Paying Attention

Here's the problem MP is trying to solve: China controls more than 80% of the global rare-earth supply. The U.S. controls less than 3%. That's awkward when you're trying to build advanced military systems, wind farms, and millions of EVs without relying on a geopolitical rival.

MP mines rare earths domestically, but until recently it was shipping the raw material to China for processing—which kind of defeated the purpose. Not anymore. Goldman analyst Peter Oppenheimer noted that the company has stopped selling concentrate to China entirely and is now moving toward full vertical integration. That means mining, refining, and magnet production all happen on U.S. soil.

"MP is becoming the only fully vertically integrated rare-earth company in America," Oppenheimer wrote. That's not just a business strategy—it's a national security priority.

The Government Deal That Changed Everything

In July, MP Materials locked in a massive agreement with the U.S. Department of Defense worth $1.55 billion. The deal includes funding, guaranteed product purchases, and something you don't see often in the mining industry: price protection.

If the market price of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr)—the key rare earth used in magnets—falls below $110 per kilogram, the government will make up the difference. That removes a huge chunk of commodity price risk and makes MP's future cash flows much more predictable.

Goldman called this arrangement a game-changer, saying it "derisks" the business and gives investors clearer visibility into earnings. It's hard to overstate how unusual this level of government support is for a mining company.

Building America's Magnet Supply Chain

Right now, most of the world's rare-earth magnets are made in China. MP is trying to change that. By 2030, the company expects to supply more than 50% of America's NdPr demand and around 40% of its magnet needs.

It's also building partnerships with major U.S. companies. Apple Inc. (AAPL) has committed over $500 million to work with MP on magnet supply and recycling. General Motors Co. (GM) is also involved, securing magnets for its electric vehicle programs.

These aren't feel-good sustainability announcements. Apple and GM need a reliable, non-Chinese source for magnets if they want to keep building products at scale without supply chain headaches.

Goldman's Bullish Math

Goldman expects MP's sales to grow at an 80% annual rate through 2027, with earnings potentially hitting $1 billion by 2030. The firm values the company at a 43-times multiple on forward adjusted EBITDA—well above what most mining companies get—because MP isn't just digging stuff out of the ground anymore.

Oppenheimer's $77 price target implies an equity value of $18.1 billion. He argues that MP deserves a premium valuation because it's better positioned, better protected by government contracts, and moving faster than any competitor in the space.

"This is no longer just a mining story," Goldman wrote. "MP is positioned to be the only vertically integrated rare earth magnet supplier at scale in North America."

That's exactly what U.S. policymakers want to hear—and exactly what investors are starting to bet on.

Back to News

Goldman Sachs Says This Rare-Earth Miner Is Essential to U.S. Strategy—And Has 32% Upside

MarketDash Editorial Team
18 days ago
MP Materials surged 9% after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a Buy rating, calling it America's answer to China's rare-earth dominance. With $1.55 billion in government backing and partnerships with Apple and GM, the company is building a complete domestic magnet supply chain.

MP Materials Corp. (MP) jumped as much as 9% on Wednesday, becoming the top performer in the Russell 1000, after Goldman Sachs put out a research note that basically said: this company is now critical infrastructure.

The Nevada-based rare-earth miner operates the only significant rare-earth mine in the United States, and it's racing to build something that doesn't currently exist—a complete domestic supply chain for the magnets that power everything from electric vehicles to fighter jets. Goldman initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $77 price target, implying 32% upside from current levels.

Why Wall Street Is Suddenly Paying Attention

Here's the problem MP is trying to solve: China controls more than 80% of the global rare-earth supply. The U.S. controls less than 3%. That's awkward when you're trying to build advanced military systems, wind farms, and millions of EVs without relying on a geopolitical rival.

MP mines rare earths domestically, but until recently it was shipping the raw material to China for processing—which kind of defeated the purpose. Not anymore. Goldman analyst Peter Oppenheimer noted that the company has stopped selling concentrate to China entirely and is now moving toward full vertical integration. That means mining, refining, and magnet production all happen on U.S. soil.

"MP is becoming the only fully vertically integrated rare-earth company in America," Oppenheimer wrote. That's not just a business strategy—it's a national security priority.

The Government Deal That Changed Everything

In July, MP Materials locked in a massive agreement with the U.S. Department of Defense worth $1.55 billion. The deal includes funding, guaranteed product purchases, and something you don't see often in the mining industry: price protection.

If the market price of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr)—the key rare earth used in magnets—falls below $110 per kilogram, the government will make up the difference. That removes a huge chunk of commodity price risk and makes MP's future cash flows much more predictable.

Goldman called this arrangement a game-changer, saying it "derisks" the business and gives investors clearer visibility into earnings. It's hard to overstate how unusual this level of government support is for a mining company.

Building America's Magnet Supply Chain

Right now, most of the world's rare-earth magnets are made in China. MP is trying to change that. By 2030, the company expects to supply more than 50% of America's NdPr demand and around 40% of its magnet needs.

It's also building partnerships with major U.S. companies. Apple Inc. (AAPL) has committed over $500 million to work with MP on magnet supply and recycling. General Motors Co. (GM) is also involved, securing magnets for its electric vehicle programs.

These aren't feel-good sustainability announcements. Apple and GM need a reliable, non-Chinese source for magnets if they want to keep building products at scale without supply chain headaches.

Goldman's Bullish Math

Goldman expects MP's sales to grow at an 80% annual rate through 2027, with earnings potentially hitting $1 billion by 2030. The firm values the company at a 43-times multiple on forward adjusted EBITDA—well above what most mining companies get—because MP isn't just digging stuff out of the ground anymore.

Oppenheimer's $77 price target implies an equity value of $18.1 billion. He argues that MP deserves a premium valuation because it's better positioned, better protected by government contracts, and moving faster than any competitor in the space.

"This is no longer just a mining story," Goldman wrote. "MP is positioned to be the only vertically integrated rare earth magnet supplier at scale in North America."

That's exactly what U.S. policymakers want to hear—and exactly what investors are starting to bet on.