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Trump's Tariff Dividend Checks: What Happened When Americans Invested Their Last Stimulus Money

MarketDash Editorial Team
18 days ago
President Trump is floating the idea of $2,000 stimulus checks funded by tariff revenue. If history repeats itself, some recipients will invest the money in stocks—and the returns from the last round of stimulus checks tell a pretty remarkable story.

President Donald Trump is talking about sending checks to Americans again. Not exactly stimulus checks in the traditional sense, but what he's calling "tariff dividend" payments—supposedly funded by revenue from his tariff policies. The proposed amount? Around $2,000 per person, potentially arriving by mid-2026 or later.

"Probably the middle of next year, a little bit later than that," Trump said Monday when discussing the timeline.

While nothing is official yet and the whole thing needs congressional approval, it's worth looking back at what happened when millions of Americans received actual stimulus checks during the pandemic. Specifically, what happened to those who decided to invest that money in the stock market instead of spending it.

The Tariff Dividend Concept

Trump's proposal centers on distributing tariff revenue to what he describes as "moderate income, middle income" Americans. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has echoed the idea, saying the payments would go to "working families" and would be subject to income limits.

"We will have an income limit," Bessent confirmed.

There's also been discussion about whether these would actually be checks or some form of tax relief instead. Bessent has suggested that tax relief might be the vehicle for delivering the benefit, rather than direct payments.

The economics of this proposal have raised eyebrows. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the program could cost around $600 billion—roughly twice what tariffs are expected to generate. Some experts argue that tariff revenue should go toward reducing the national debt rather than being distributed as payments.

A Quick History of Pandemic Stimulus Checks

Remember 2020 and 2021? Congress approved three rounds of stimulus payments to help Americans cope with the economic fallout from COVID-19. The Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Act (CARES Act) kicked things off with $1,200 payments to eligible adults, plus $500 per qualifying child.

Then came the Tax Relief Act of 2020 in December, adding another $600 per adult and $600 per child. Finally, the American Rescue Act of 2021 delivered $1,400 to eligible adults and children. Add it all up, and qualifying individuals without children received $3,200 total.

Most people used the money for bills, groceries, or building up their emergency savings. But a notable portion of recipients decided to take a different approach and invest in stocks or cryptocurrencies. For those who did, the results varied dramatically depending on what they bought.

Investing Stimulus Checks in the S&P 500

Let's start with the conservative play—putting stimulus money into SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which tracks the broader market. This would have been a sensible choice for anyone wanting diversification without picking individual stocks.

Here's how the math works out, with prices adjusted for splits:

  • $1,200 first check (April 2020): 4.33 SPY shares, now worth $2,865.07, up 138.8%
  • $600 second check (December 2020): 1.60 SPY shares, now worth $1,058.69, up 76.4%
  • $1,400 third check (March 2021): 3.58 SPY shares, now worth $2,368.81, up 69.2%

At today's price of $661.68 per share, that total $3,200 investment would be worth $6,292.57—basically doubling your money in about four to five years.

Apple: The Blue Chip Choice

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is one of the most popular stocks among retail investors, and it's not hard to see why. Putting stimulus checks into Apple shares would have looked like this:

  • $1,200 first check: 17.89 AAPL shares, now worth $4,849.62, up 304.1%
  • $600 second check: 4.32 AAPL shares, now worth $1,171.07, up 95.2%
  • $1,400 third check: 11.55 AAPL shares, now worth $3,130.97, up 123.6%

Based on Apple's current price of $271.08, that $3,200 would have grown to $9,151.66. Not bad for a company many people already knew and trusted.

Nvidia: The AI Jackpot

Here's where things get interesting. Back in 2020, Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) was valued at under $500 billion and was primarily known for gaming graphics cards. The AI revolution that would make it one of the world's most valuable companies was just beginning.

Anyone who invested their stimulus checks in Nvidia hit the jackpot:

  • $1,200 first check: 184.33 NVDA shares, now worth $34,206.12, up 2,750.5%
  • $600 second check: 45.91 NVDA shares, now worth $8,519.52, up 1,319.9%
  • $1,400 third check: 108.61 NVDA shares, now worth $20,154.76, up 1,339.6%

At Nvidia's current price of $185.57, that $3,200 investment would be worth $62,880.50. That's a nearly 20x return in less than five years—the kind of gain that changes lives.

Tesla: The Retail Favorite

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) was already wildly popular with retail traders during the pandemic, and many likely poured stimulus money into Elon Musk's electric vehicle company. Here's how that played out:

  • $1,200 first check: 30.50 TSLA shares, now worth $12,253.68, up 921.1%
  • $600 second check: 2.69 TSLA shares, now worth $1,080.73, up 80.1%
  • $1,400 third check: 6.04 TSLA shares, now worth $2,426.63, up 73.3%

At Tesla's current price of $401.76, the total investment would be worth $15,761.04—another impressive return, though notably less than Nvidia.

What This Means for Future Stimulus Checks

Of course, past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The 2020-2021 period was unique—markets were recovering from pandemic lows, interest rates were near zero, and technology stocks were entering a historic bull run fueled by work-from-home trends and later by artificial intelligence.

If Trump's proposed tariff dividend checks do materialize, the economic environment will be different. We're dealing with higher interest rates, inflation concerns, and macroeconomic uncertainty that didn't exist in quite the same way during the last stimulus round.

Still, the historical data makes one thing clear: for Americans who don't immediately need the money for essential expenses, investing stimulus payments can potentially build wealth over time. Whether the next round of checks—if they happen—will produce similar returns remains to be seen. But the lesson from 2020 and 2021 is that sometimes the best stimulus for your personal finances might be a little patience and a decent stock pick.

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Trump's Tariff Dividend Checks: What Happened When Americans Invested Their Last Stimulus Money

MarketDash Editorial Team
18 days ago
President Trump is floating the idea of $2,000 stimulus checks funded by tariff revenue. If history repeats itself, some recipients will invest the money in stocks—and the returns from the last round of stimulus checks tell a pretty remarkable story.

President Donald Trump is talking about sending checks to Americans again. Not exactly stimulus checks in the traditional sense, but what he's calling "tariff dividend" payments—supposedly funded by revenue from his tariff policies. The proposed amount? Around $2,000 per person, potentially arriving by mid-2026 or later.

"Probably the middle of next year, a little bit later than that," Trump said Monday when discussing the timeline.

While nothing is official yet and the whole thing needs congressional approval, it's worth looking back at what happened when millions of Americans received actual stimulus checks during the pandemic. Specifically, what happened to those who decided to invest that money in the stock market instead of spending it.

The Tariff Dividend Concept

Trump's proposal centers on distributing tariff revenue to what he describes as "moderate income, middle income" Americans. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has echoed the idea, saying the payments would go to "working families" and would be subject to income limits.

"We will have an income limit," Bessent confirmed.

There's also been discussion about whether these would actually be checks or some form of tax relief instead. Bessent has suggested that tax relief might be the vehicle for delivering the benefit, rather than direct payments.

The economics of this proposal have raised eyebrows. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the program could cost around $600 billion—roughly twice what tariffs are expected to generate. Some experts argue that tariff revenue should go toward reducing the national debt rather than being distributed as payments.

A Quick History of Pandemic Stimulus Checks

Remember 2020 and 2021? Congress approved three rounds of stimulus payments to help Americans cope with the economic fallout from COVID-19. The Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Act (CARES Act) kicked things off with $1,200 payments to eligible adults, plus $500 per qualifying child.

Then came the Tax Relief Act of 2020 in December, adding another $600 per adult and $600 per child. Finally, the American Rescue Act of 2021 delivered $1,400 to eligible adults and children. Add it all up, and qualifying individuals without children received $3,200 total.

Most people used the money for bills, groceries, or building up their emergency savings. But a notable portion of recipients decided to take a different approach and invest in stocks or cryptocurrencies. For those who did, the results varied dramatically depending on what they bought.

Investing Stimulus Checks in the S&P 500

Let's start with the conservative play—putting stimulus money into SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which tracks the broader market. This would have been a sensible choice for anyone wanting diversification without picking individual stocks.

Here's how the math works out, with prices adjusted for splits:

  • $1,200 first check (April 2020): 4.33 SPY shares, now worth $2,865.07, up 138.8%
  • $600 second check (December 2020): 1.60 SPY shares, now worth $1,058.69, up 76.4%
  • $1,400 third check (March 2021): 3.58 SPY shares, now worth $2,368.81, up 69.2%

At today's price of $661.68 per share, that total $3,200 investment would be worth $6,292.57—basically doubling your money in about four to five years.

Apple: The Blue Chip Choice

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is one of the most popular stocks among retail investors, and it's not hard to see why. Putting stimulus checks into Apple shares would have looked like this:

  • $1,200 first check: 17.89 AAPL shares, now worth $4,849.62, up 304.1%
  • $600 second check: 4.32 AAPL shares, now worth $1,171.07, up 95.2%
  • $1,400 third check: 11.55 AAPL shares, now worth $3,130.97, up 123.6%

Based on Apple's current price of $271.08, that $3,200 would have grown to $9,151.66. Not bad for a company many people already knew and trusted.

Nvidia: The AI Jackpot

Here's where things get interesting. Back in 2020, Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) was valued at under $500 billion and was primarily known for gaming graphics cards. The AI revolution that would make it one of the world's most valuable companies was just beginning.

Anyone who invested their stimulus checks in Nvidia hit the jackpot:

  • $1,200 first check: 184.33 NVDA shares, now worth $34,206.12, up 2,750.5%
  • $600 second check: 45.91 NVDA shares, now worth $8,519.52, up 1,319.9%
  • $1,400 third check: 108.61 NVDA shares, now worth $20,154.76, up 1,339.6%

At Nvidia's current price of $185.57, that $3,200 investment would be worth $62,880.50. That's a nearly 20x return in less than five years—the kind of gain that changes lives.

Tesla: The Retail Favorite

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) was already wildly popular with retail traders during the pandemic, and many likely poured stimulus money into Elon Musk's electric vehicle company. Here's how that played out:

  • $1,200 first check: 30.50 TSLA shares, now worth $12,253.68, up 921.1%
  • $600 second check: 2.69 TSLA shares, now worth $1,080.73, up 80.1%
  • $1,400 third check: 6.04 TSLA shares, now worth $2,426.63, up 73.3%

At Tesla's current price of $401.76, the total investment would be worth $15,761.04—another impressive return, though notably less than Nvidia.

What This Means for Future Stimulus Checks

Of course, past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The 2020-2021 period was unique—markets were recovering from pandemic lows, interest rates were near zero, and technology stocks were entering a historic bull run fueled by work-from-home trends and later by artificial intelligence.

If Trump's proposed tariff dividend checks do materialize, the economic environment will be different. We're dealing with higher interest rates, inflation concerns, and macroeconomic uncertainty that didn't exist in quite the same way during the last stimulus round.

Still, the historical data makes one thing clear: for Americans who don't immediately need the money for essential expenses, investing stimulus payments can potentially build wealth over time. Whether the next round of checks—if they happen—will produce similar returns remains to be seen. But the lesson from 2020 and 2021 is that sometimes the best stimulus for your personal finances might be a little patience and a decent stock pick.