Polymarket is doing what any smart company does before a major market entry: lining up partnerships that matter. The blockchain-based prediction market has locked down deals with fantasy sports giant PrizePicks and Yahoo Finance as it gears up to welcome back U.S. users after a two-year absence.
PrizePicks announced on Nov. 11 that it signed a multiyear agreement with Polymarket to give users access to curated prediction markets covering sports, entertainment and culture. Just one day later, Polymarket revealed it had become the official prediction market partner for Yahoo Finance. Not a bad couple of days for building credibility.
The Road Back to America
Polymarket has been blocked from serving U.S. customers since 2022, when it settled with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over allegations that it operated an "illegal unregistered or non-designated facility." But the company has been working its way back. In July, it acquired QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange, which opened the door for a legitimate U.S. return.
According to Bloomberg reporting from October, Polymarket is expected to reopen its platform to U.S. users by the end of this month. CEO Shayne Coplan confirmed at Cantor Fitzgerald's Crypto & AI Infrastructure Conference in Miami on Nov. 12 that testing is already underway. "The U.S. exchange is actually live and operational and people are being onboarded," Coplan said. "It's effectively in a beta test."
Riding the Momentum
The timing couldn't be better for Polymarket's U.S. comeback. Over the past year, the platform has become one of the most successful mainstream cryptocurrency applications. Its breakout moment came during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, when its prediction market attracted billions of dollars in trading volume and earned mentions alongside traditional political polls.
Once fully operational in the U.S., Polymarket plans to launch its native cryptocurrency token, POLY. Chief Marketing Officer Matthew Modabber confirmed this last month, and the speculation around a potential airdrop has helped drive a surge in platform activity.
The numbers tell the story. Polymarket recorded a record $3 billion in monthly volume last month, and it's well on its way to matching or exceeding that this month, with $1.4 billion already on the books, according to The Block Data.
Big Money Takes Notice
Investors are paying attention to Polymarket's growth trajectory. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, announced last month that it would invest up to $2 billion in the platform. That's the kind of validation that matters in both crypto and traditional finance circles.
Competition Heats Up
But Polymarket isn't the only game in town. Its main competitor, Kalshi, has been operating legally in the U.S. since 2021 and has actually outpaced Polymarket in volume over the past two months. This month looks no different—Kalshi has already logged over $2 billion in volume, according to The Block Data.
Kalshi raised $300 million last month at a $5 billion valuation, signaling that investors see plenty of room for growth in the prediction market space. The question now is whether there's room for both platforms to thrive, or if we're about to see a real battle for market share once Polymarket fully opens its doors to U.S. traders.