Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) is having a weird week. The company's growth rankings just went from dismal to downright bullish, even as a newly elected New York City mayor is actively urging people to stop buying its coffee.
Growth Metrics Perk Up Dramatically
The coffee giant's growth metric jumped to a bullish 79.63 this week, a massive leap from just 33.02 the previous week. That's the kind of move that makes analysts sit up and check their spreadsheets twice.
This sharp uptick reveals a fascinating split between Starbucks'} improving financial outlook and its ongoing public relations nightmare. While the company's momentum sits at a dreary 26.08 and its value metric languishes at 15.97, the growth algorithm has latched onto some serious macroeconomic tailwinds that could boost future margins considerably.
The growth metric emphasizes recent expansion in earnings and revenue, and right now it's seeing something it likes. But here's the catch: the stock's price trend remains negative across short, medium, and long-term timeframes, showing that investors remain cautious about those intensifying labor disputes.
South American Trade Deals Could Slash Coffee Costs
On November 14, the White House announced new trade agreements with Argentina, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Ecuador aimed at reducing tariffs on key imports, including coffee and bananas. For a company that sells approximately 4 billion cups of coffee annually, potential tariff relief on coffee beans translates directly into lower Cost of Goods Sold.
That's the kind of fundamental improvement that growth algorithms love. Lower input costs mean better margins, which means improved earnings outlook, which drives that growth score higher.
And despite all the boycott noise, consumer demand appears surprisingly resilient. Jonathan Maze, editor-in-chief of Restaurant Business Magazine, noted that industry data from Placer.ai revealed a 38% surge in Starbucks} foot traffic following the November 13 release of the "Bearista" cup. Red Cup Day sales are tracking to exceed expectations.
Political Pressure Mounts Over Labor Disputes
On November 13, NYC Mayor-Elect Zohran Mamdani endorsed an "open-ended" strike by Starbucks Workers United, tweeting "No contract, no coffee" and urging a consumer boycott. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez also expressed solidarity with the union, which is demanding better contracts and calling for what would be the largest strike in company history.
So you've got a mayor-elect actively campaigning against your business while your foot traffic surges by double digits. Welcome to 2025, where nothing makes sense and the contradictions keep piling up.
Stock Performance Lags Broader Market
Shares of SBUX} have fallen 9.21% year-to-date, a painful underperformance compared to the Nasdaq Composite's 17.03% return and the Nasdaq 100's 17.47% gain over the same period.
The stock closed 0.42% higher at $83.68 on Wednesday and was up another 0.37% in pre-market trading Thursday. Over the past year, shares are down 14.84%. The futures of the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones indices were all trading higher Thursday morning, continuing Wednesday's advance.
What we're seeing is a company caught between genuinely improving economic fundamentals and legitimate social and labor concerns. The tariff relief is real, the cost savings could be substantial, and consumers are still lining up for their lattes. But the labor issues aren't going away, and political pressure is mounting. It's going to be an interesting few months for the coffee giant.