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Novartis Lifts Growth Outlook Through 2030 With Expanded Drug Forecasts

MarketDash Editorial Team
17 days ago
The Swiss pharmaceutical giant raised peak sales targets for blockbuster drugs like Kisqali and Scemblix while projecting 5-6% annual growth through 2030, backed by a pipeline of over 30 high-value medicines and major manufacturing investments in the U.S.

Novartis AG (NVS) is feeling confident about the next five years, and it's backing that optimism with some meaningful upgrades to its growth targets and drug forecasts. The Swiss pharmaceutical company laid out an updated roadmap through 2030 that shows higher expectations for several flagship medicines and a pipeline it believes can sustain momentum well into the next decade.

The company updated its mid-term outlook ahead of its Meet Novartis Management event in London, highlighting what management describes as stronger confidence in long-term demand drivers and upcoming launches. The new projection calls for compound annual sales growth of 5% to 6% on a constant-currency basis from 2025 through 2030.

Blockbuster Drugs Get Bigger Targets

The headline upgrades came for two of Novartis's star performers. Kisqali, its breast cancer treatment, now carries a peak sales forecast of more than $10 billion—up from the previous estimate of over $8 billion. Scemblix, used to treat chronic myeloid leukemia, saw its target jump from above $3 billion to more than $4 billion. Management says the revisions reflect not just strong performance, but expanding adoption and durability of these therapies in real-world use.

Those aren't the only heavy hitters in the lineup. Novartis highlighted eight commercialized drugs it considers de-risked multibillion-dollar assets: Kisqali, Cosentyx, Kesimpta, Pluvicto, Scemblix, Leqvio, Fabhalta, and Rhapsido. Each is expected to hit peak sales between $3 billion and $10 billion, creating what the company views as a stable foundation for revenue growth over the next several years.

"As a pure-play medicines company, Novartis has delivered a strong track record of sales growth with core margin expansion," says Vas Narasimhan, CEO of Novartis.

"Looking ahead, we expect to sustain that momentum over the next five years, driven by assets we already have in hand as well as upcoming launches with multi-billion-dollar sales potential. Over the past two years, we have executed more than 30 strategic deals, bolstering our pipeline and strengthening the outlook of the business in the mid-2030s and beyond. With more than 30 potential high-value medicines in our pipeline across four core therapeutic areas and advanced technology platforms, we are well positioned for long-term sustainable growth."

Pipeline Readouts and Margin Progress

The near-term pipeline looks busy. Novartis is entering what it describes as a catalyst-heavy period, with more than 15 potentially submission-enabling readouts expected over the next two years. That's the kind of data flow that can either validate or reshape growth projections, depending on how the trials land.

On the financial side, the margin story is ahead of schedule. Core operating income margin reached 41.2% for the first nine months of 2025—hitting a key milestone two years earlier than planned. Management expects margins to remain above 40% starting in 2029, even after absorbing dilution from the planned acquisition of Avidity Biosciences Inc (RNA). That deal is expected to close in the first half of 2026, pending the separation of SpinCo and other standard conditions.

Manufacturing Expansion in the U.S.

On Wednesday, Novartis announced plans to expand its operations in North Carolina as part of a broader $23 billion investment in U.S.-based infrastructure. The new facility is expected to open in 2027-2028 and is projected to create 700 new jobs at Novartis directly, plus more than 3,000 indirect jobs across the supply chain by the end of 2030.

NVS Price Action: Novartis stock is down 2.05% at $124.70 at publication on Thursday.

Back to News

Novartis Lifts Growth Outlook Through 2030 With Expanded Drug Forecasts

MarketDash Editorial Team
17 days ago
The Swiss pharmaceutical giant raised peak sales targets for blockbuster drugs like Kisqali and Scemblix while projecting 5-6% annual growth through 2030, backed by a pipeline of over 30 high-value medicines and major manufacturing investments in the U.S.

Novartis AG (NVS) is feeling confident about the next five years, and it's backing that optimism with some meaningful upgrades to its growth targets and drug forecasts. The Swiss pharmaceutical company laid out an updated roadmap through 2030 that shows higher expectations for several flagship medicines and a pipeline it believes can sustain momentum well into the next decade.

The company updated its mid-term outlook ahead of its Meet Novartis Management event in London, highlighting what management describes as stronger confidence in long-term demand drivers and upcoming launches. The new projection calls for compound annual sales growth of 5% to 6% on a constant-currency basis from 2025 through 2030.

Blockbuster Drugs Get Bigger Targets

The headline upgrades came for two of Novartis's star performers. Kisqali, its breast cancer treatment, now carries a peak sales forecast of more than $10 billion—up from the previous estimate of over $8 billion. Scemblix, used to treat chronic myeloid leukemia, saw its target jump from above $3 billion to more than $4 billion. Management says the revisions reflect not just strong performance, but expanding adoption and durability of these therapies in real-world use.

Those aren't the only heavy hitters in the lineup. Novartis highlighted eight commercialized drugs it considers de-risked multibillion-dollar assets: Kisqali, Cosentyx, Kesimpta, Pluvicto, Scemblix, Leqvio, Fabhalta, and Rhapsido. Each is expected to hit peak sales between $3 billion and $10 billion, creating what the company views as a stable foundation for revenue growth over the next several years.

"As a pure-play medicines company, Novartis has delivered a strong track record of sales growth with core margin expansion," says Vas Narasimhan, CEO of Novartis.

"Looking ahead, we expect to sustain that momentum over the next five years, driven by assets we already have in hand as well as upcoming launches with multi-billion-dollar sales potential. Over the past two years, we have executed more than 30 strategic deals, bolstering our pipeline and strengthening the outlook of the business in the mid-2030s and beyond. With more than 30 potential high-value medicines in our pipeline across four core therapeutic areas and advanced technology platforms, we are well positioned for long-term sustainable growth."

Pipeline Readouts and Margin Progress

The near-term pipeline looks busy. Novartis is entering what it describes as a catalyst-heavy period, with more than 15 potentially submission-enabling readouts expected over the next two years. That's the kind of data flow that can either validate or reshape growth projections, depending on how the trials land.

On the financial side, the margin story is ahead of schedule. Core operating income margin reached 41.2% for the first nine months of 2025—hitting a key milestone two years earlier than planned. Management expects margins to remain above 40% starting in 2029, even after absorbing dilution from the planned acquisition of Avidity Biosciences Inc (RNA). That deal is expected to close in the first half of 2026, pending the separation of SpinCo and other standard conditions.

Manufacturing Expansion in the U.S.

On Wednesday, Novartis announced plans to expand its operations in North Carolina as part of a broader $23 billion investment in U.S.-based infrastructure. The new facility is expected to open in 2027-2028 and is projected to create 700 new jobs at Novartis directly, plus more than 3,000 indirect jobs across the supply chain by the end of 2030.

NVS Price Action: Novartis stock is down 2.05% at $124.70 at publication on Thursday.