Elon Musk isn't backing down. When critics on X took aim at his track record for "misjudging timelines," the Tesla Inc. (TSLA) and SpaceX CEO fired back with a defense of his prediction methodology and some eye-popping claims about his companies' market positions.
Defending the Timeline Controversy
Musk's response on Thursday was characteristically blunt. He explained that his predictions target the 50th percentile, meaning "I should be early half the time and late half the time." The problem, according to Musk, is that "news" outlets only report when his predictions run late, ignoring the times he beats his own estimates.
What actually matters, Musk argued, is "looking at the actual progress" his companies have made. That perspective, he said, "cuts through the bulls**t."
SpaceX's Orbital Payload Domination
To illustrate his point, Musk reaffirmed that SpaceX "will do ~90% of all Earth payload to orbit this year." That's not entirely new territory for the billionaire. He's made similar predictions before, specifically claiming that SpaceX's Starship rocket would eventually handle 95% of Earth's orbital payload once the vehicle is "flying frequently with real payloads."
The numbers suggest Musk might not be exaggerating by much. SpaceX has become the dominant force in commercial space launches, far outpacing competitors in both frequency and payload capacity.
Tesla's Valuation Versus the Entire Auto Industry
Musk also doubled down on claims about Tesla's market dominance, declaring the electric vehicle maker is "worth more than the rest of the auto industry on Earth combined." He's trotted out this assertion before, particularly in the buildup to Tesla's recent shareholder meeting where investors approved his controversial trillion-dollar pay package.
The math actually checks out, at least by market capitalization standards. Tesla currently sits at over $1.3 trillion in market value, dwarfing its nearest competitor, Toyota Motor Corp (TM), which hovers around $250 billion. Tesla's valuation exceeds the combined market cap of the next 14 automakers, including American stalwarts Ford Motor Co. (F) and General Motors Co. (GM).
Of course, market cap tells you what investors think a company is worth, not necessarily its current revenue, production volume, or profitability. But in the world of growth stocks and future potential, Tesla's valuation reflects massive investor confidence in its trajectory.
Space-Based AI Data Centers on the Horizon
Looking further ahead, Musk sketched out an ambitious vision for SpaceX's role in powering artificial intelligence. He suggested that "Starship should be able to deliver around 300 GW per year of solar-powered AI satellites to orbit," positioning SpaceX as critical infrastructure for solar-powered AI data centers in space.
The idea isn't unique to Musk. Jeff Bezos has previously floated similar concepts, arguing that gigawatt-scale data centers in orbit could prove more cost-effective than their earthbound counterparts. The logic goes something like this: space offers unlimited solar power, no cooling problems from Earth's atmosphere, and no constraints on physical expansion.
Market Performance
While Musk defended his companies' achievements, Tesla shares closed down 2.17% at $395.23 on Thursday. The stock recovered slightly in after-hours trading, climbing 0.60% to $397.60, according to market data.