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Economist Sounds Alarm: Time to Cut Back on the Economic Junk Food

MarketDash Editorial Team
17 days ago
September's surprise jobs report beat expectations with 119,000 new positions, but economist Justin Wolfers says the rising unemployment rate tells a different story about where the economy is headed.

September's jobs report looked pretty good on the surface. The U.S. economy added 119,000 positions, crushing expectations that called for roughly half that number. But according to economist Justin Wolfers, now might be the time to stop celebrating and start watching what we eat.

When Good News Comes with a Side of Bad

Wolfers, who teaches public policy and economics at the University of Michigan, says the September data is classic mixed messaging. Sure, 119,000 new jobs means we're not in a recession right this second. But the unemployment rate keeps climbing, now hovering around 4.5%, and that's the number telling the real story.

Here's how Wolfers put it: "Monthly jobs reports are like bathroom scales: step on once and you get noise, step on for months and you see the trend. The higher unemployment rate says 'maybe cut back on the economic junk food.'"

In other words, one good monthly number doesn't mean much if the broader trend is pointing the wrong direction. And right now, that trend looks increasingly soft.

The Data Gets Staler the Closer You Look

Other economists are picking up on the same underlying weakness. Bill Adams, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank, points out that July and August saw combined downward revisions of 33,000 jobs. He called the September figures "stale" and noted that unemployment just hit its highest level in nearly four years.

The problem isn't just that fewer jobs are being created. It's that labor demand appears to be struggling to keep pace with workforce growth. Adams highlighted a particularly concerning data point: Black unemployment has jumped 1.5 percentage points since May alone. That's the kind of demographic shift that often signals a broader cooling cycle is underway.

Nobody's Panicking Yet, But the Warning Lights Are On

Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer at Northlight Asset Management, thinks the "middle approach is the best" given that there's "some froth in the market" thanks to elevated valuations and aggressive AI spending. "Whether or not the spending turns out to be overdone won't be known for many years," he noted.

Wolfers stressed that the economy hasn't "turned south" yet, but the steady half-point rise in unemployment since the start of the current administration marks a clear slowdown. For policymakers and investors, the takeaway is straightforward: enjoy the headline beat, but don't ignore what the underlying numbers are whispering.

The long-term health of this economy probably depends less on volatile monthly job spikes and more on fundamental discipline. Time to put down the junk food and pay attention to what's actually happening beneath the surface.

Markets React with Sharp Reversal

The benchmark indices didn't love what they saw. After initially gaining ground, stocks reversed course and plunged during Thursday's close.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 respectively, both closed lower on Thursday. The SPY was up 1.52% at $652.53, while the QQQ declined 2.37% to $585.67.

Futures for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones were trading higher on Friday after Thursday's sharp sell-off.

Back to News

Economist Sounds Alarm: Time to Cut Back on the Economic Junk Food

MarketDash Editorial Team
17 days ago
September's surprise jobs report beat expectations with 119,000 new positions, but economist Justin Wolfers says the rising unemployment rate tells a different story about where the economy is headed.

September's jobs report looked pretty good on the surface. The U.S. economy added 119,000 positions, crushing expectations that called for roughly half that number. But according to economist Justin Wolfers, now might be the time to stop celebrating and start watching what we eat.

When Good News Comes with a Side of Bad

Wolfers, who teaches public policy and economics at the University of Michigan, says the September data is classic mixed messaging. Sure, 119,000 new jobs means we're not in a recession right this second. But the unemployment rate keeps climbing, now hovering around 4.5%, and that's the number telling the real story.

Here's how Wolfers put it: "Monthly jobs reports are like bathroom scales: step on once and you get noise, step on for months and you see the trend. The higher unemployment rate says 'maybe cut back on the economic junk food.'"

In other words, one good monthly number doesn't mean much if the broader trend is pointing the wrong direction. And right now, that trend looks increasingly soft.

The Data Gets Staler the Closer You Look

Other economists are picking up on the same underlying weakness. Bill Adams, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank, points out that July and August saw combined downward revisions of 33,000 jobs. He called the September figures "stale" and noted that unemployment just hit its highest level in nearly four years.

The problem isn't just that fewer jobs are being created. It's that labor demand appears to be struggling to keep pace with workforce growth. Adams highlighted a particularly concerning data point: Black unemployment has jumped 1.5 percentage points since May alone. That's the kind of demographic shift that often signals a broader cooling cycle is underway.

Nobody's Panicking Yet, But the Warning Lights Are On

Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer at Northlight Asset Management, thinks the "middle approach is the best" given that there's "some froth in the market" thanks to elevated valuations and aggressive AI spending. "Whether or not the spending turns out to be overdone won't be known for many years," he noted.

Wolfers stressed that the economy hasn't "turned south" yet, but the steady half-point rise in unemployment since the start of the current administration marks a clear slowdown. For policymakers and investors, the takeaway is straightforward: enjoy the headline beat, but don't ignore what the underlying numbers are whispering.

The long-term health of this economy probably depends less on volatile monthly job spikes and more on fundamental discipline. Time to put down the junk food and pay attention to what's actually happening beneath the surface.

Markets React with Sharp Reversal

The benchmark indices didn't love what they saw. After initially gaining ground, stocks reversed course and plunged during Thursday's close.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 respectively, both closed lower on Thursday. The SPY was up 1.52% at $652.53, while the QQQ declined 2.37% to $585.67.

Futures for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones were trading higher on Friday after Thursday's sharp sell-off.