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Walmart Beats Expectations and Raises Outlook, But Shares Still Slip

MarketDash Editorial Team
16 days ago
Walmart delivered a strong earnings beat and lifted its full-year forecast, yet shares fell anyway. Analysts remain bullish on the retail giant's value proposition, margin improvements, and holiday positioning heading into 2026.

Sometimes the market just doesn't want to celebrate. Walmart Inc. (WMT) reported solid quarterly results Thursday, beating profit expectations and lifting its outlook for the year ahead. The stock? Down on Friday anyway, because markets are weird like that.

The retail giant posted third-quarter adjusted earnings of 62 cents per share, topping analyst estimates of 60 cents. More importantly, Walmart raised its 2026 adjusted EPS forecast to a range of $2.58 to $2.63, up from the previous $2.52 to $2.62. That's the kind of guidance bump that usually gets investors excited, but apparently not this week.

Analysts See Strength in All the Right Places

Wall Street analysts, however, aren't losing sleep over a single day's price action. Across the board, they're sticking with bullish ratings on Walmart, pointing to momentum in the areas that actually matter for long-term growth. The company continues to gain market share while building out higher-margin revenue streams like advertising and its third-party marketplace. And with the holiday season approaching, Walmart looks well-positioned to capture spending from value-conscious consumers heading into 2026.

Bank of America Securities analyst Robert F. Ohmes maintained his Buy rating with a $125 price target, emphasizing Walmart's compelling value proposition and digital convenience. He noted that expanding advertising and marketplace revenues should bolster long-term profitability, and raised his fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS estimate by a penny to $2.61, matching the company's updated guidance.

Goldman Sachs analyst Kate McShane kept her Buy rating and bumped her price target from $114 to $121. She wrote that Walmart is primed to deliver solid earnings growth into 2026, driven by continued share gains. McShane highlighted that the retailer's relentless focus on value and convenience should further enhance its profitability profile.

JPMorgan analyst Christopher Horvers, who maintained an Overweight rating and raised his target from $128 to $129, said the results helped ease concerns about consumer health and Walmart's earnings momentum following last week's surprise CEO announcement. He also flagged that Walmart's aggressive pricing strategy, especially heading into expected grocery disinflation, could ramp up competitive pressure across the retail sector.

DA Davidson's Michael Baker stuck with his Buy rating and lifted his price target from $117 to $130. Baker observed that while general merchandise pricing has risen, Walmart continues delivering value through low-end grocery rollbacks. He increased his 2025 and 2026 EPS estimates to $2.64 and $2.85, up from $2.62 and $2.82.

BTIG analyst Robert Drbul reaffirmed his Buy rating and raised his target from $120 to $125. Drbul said Walmart has the levers to hit its fiscal 2026 sales growth target of 3% to 4%, and expects operating income to grow faster than sales in the years ahead. He pointed to advertising, memberships, marketplace activity, and Walmart Fulfillment Services as key drivers of expanding profitability.

Guggenheim's John Heinbockel maintained his Buy rating and lifted his target from $115 to $120, noting that Walmart's top-line-driven EBIT beat stood out amid choppy results from other large-cap retailers. He highlighted that the stock recently outperformed the S&P 500 by 800 basis points, an unusually strong performance for a company of its size.

KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Bradley B. Thomas kept his Overweight rating and raised his price target from $110 to $120, citing Walmart's various growth initiatives and supply chain automation as catalysts for accelerating sales and margin expansion. Thomas bumped his 2025 EPS estimate to $2.61 from $2.59 while keeping his 2026 forecast steady at $2.95.

RBC Capital Markets analyst Steven Shemesh maintained an Outperform rating with a $116 target, explaining that Walmart's third-party marketplace improves working-capital efficiency while offering merchants greater focus and consumers broader selection, strengthening the retailer's overall brand positioning.

Telsey Advisory Group's Joseph Feldman reiterated his Outperform rating and raised his price target from $118 to $130. Feldman said he remains encouraged by Walmart's expansion beyond core retail and e-commerce into a broader ecosystem that continues to widen its growth runway.

Despite all that analyst enthusiasm, WMT shares closed Friday down 1.41% at $105.60. Sometimes you beat expectations, raise guidance, and the stock still goes down. That's just retail in 2025.

Back to News

Walmart Beats Expectations and Raises Outlook, But Shares Still Slip

MarketDash Editorial Team
16 days ago
Walmart delivered a strong earnings beat and lifted its full-year forecast, yet shares fell anyway. Analysts remain bullish on the retail giant's value proposition, margin improvements, and holiday positioning heading into 2026.

Sometimes the market just doesn't want to celebrate. Walmart Inc. (WMT) reported solid quarterly results Thursday, beating profit expectations and lifting its outlook for the year ahead. The stock? Down on Friday anyway, because markets are weird like that.

The retail giant posted third-quarter adjusted earnings of 62 cents per share, topping analyst estimates of 60 cents. More importantly, Walmart raised its 2026 adjusted EPS forecast to a range of $2.58 to $2.63, up from the previous $2.52 to $2.62. That's the kind of guidance bump that usually gets investors excited, but apparently not this week.

Analysts See Strength in All the Right Places

Wall Street analysts, however, aren't losing sleep over a single day's price action. Across the board, they're sticking with bullish ratings on Walmart, pointing to momentum in the areas that actually matter for long-term growth. The company continues to gain market share while building out higher-margin revenue streams like advertising and its third-party marketplace. And with the holiday season approaching, Walmart looks well-positioned to capture spending from value-conscious consumers heading into 2026.

Bank of America Securities analyst Robert F. Ohmes maintained his Buy rating with a $125 price target, emphasizing Walmart's compelling value proposition and digital convenience. He noted that expanding advertising and marketplace revenues should bolster long-term profitability, and raised his fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS estimate by a penny to $2.61, matching the company's updated guidance.

Goldman Sachs analyst Kate McShane kept her Buy rating and bumped her price target from $114 to $121. She wrote that Walmart is primed to deliver solid earnings growth into 2026, driven by continued share gains. McShane highlighted that the retailer's relentless focus on value and convenience should further enhance its profitability profile.

JPMorgan analyst Christopher Horvers, who maintained an Overweight rating and raised his target from $128 to $129, said the results helped ease concerns about consumer health and Walmart's earnings momentum following last week's surprise CEO announcement. He also flagged that Walmart's aggressive pricing strategy, especially heading into expected grocery disinflation, could ramp up competitive pressure across the retail sector.

DA Davidson's Michael Baker stuck with his Buy rating and lifted his price target from $117 to $130. Baker observed that while general merchandise pricing has risen, Walmart continues delivering value through low-end grocery rollbacks. He increased his 2025 and 2026 EPS estimates to $2.64 and $2.85, up from $2.62 and $2.82.

BTIG analyst Robert Drbul reaffirmed his Buy rating and raised his target from $120 to $125. Drbul said Walmart has the levers to hit its fiscal 2026 sales growth target of 3% to 4%, and expects operating income to grow faster than sales in the years ahead. He pointed to advertising, memberships, marketplace activity, and Walmart Fulfillment Services as key drivers of expanding profitability.

Guggenheim's John Heinbockel maintained his Buy rating and lifted his target from $115 to $120, noting that Walmart's top-line-driven EBIT beat stood out amid choppy results from other large-cap retailers. He highlighted that the stock recently outperformed the S&P 500 by 800 basis points, an unusually strong performance for a company of its size.

KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Bradley B. Thomas kept his Overweight rating and raised his price target from $110 to $120, citing Walmart's various growth initiatives and supply chain automation as catalysts for accelerating sales and margin expansion. Thomas bumped his 2025 EPS estimate to $2.61 from $2.59 while keeping his 2026 forecast steady at $2.95.

RBC Capital Markets analyst Steven Shemesh maintained an Outperform rating with a $116 target, explaining that Walmart's third-party marketplace improves working-capital efficiency while offering merchants greater focus and consumers broader selection, strengthening the retailer's overall brand positioning.

Telsey Advisory Group's Joseph Feldman reiterated his Outperform rating and raised his price target from $118 to $130. Feldman said he remains encouraged by Walmart's expansion beyond core retail and e-commerce into a broader ecosystem that continues to widen its growth runway.

Despite all that analyst enthusiasm, WMT shares closed Friday down 1.41% at $105.60. Sometimes you beat expectations, raise guidance, and the stock still goes down. That's just retail in 2025.