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Why Weight-Loss Drug Stocks Could Be Your Next Big Investment Move

MarketDash Editorial Team
16 days ago
The weight-loss drug market is exploding from $15 billion to a projected $150 billion by 2035. Here's why industry experts compare it to the 2015 smartphone boom, and three stocks worth watching as the sector shifts from novelty to execution.

Here's something you don't hear every day: the weight-loss drug market is, ironically enough, expanding like crazy. According to Morgan Stanley, we're looking at growth from $15 billion in 2024 to $150 billion by 2035. That's a tenfold increase in just over a decade.

The numbers behind this surge are pretty remarkable. Morgan Stanley reports that 11% of the global eligible population of 1.3 billion people are already taking weight-loss drugs. In the U.S., that figure jumps to 20% of eligible patients, while other countries clock in around 10%. What's fueling this takeoff? Expanded supply, clinical benefits extending to heart and kidney disease, and increasingly generous employer drug coverage.

"We believe we are now at an inflection point for the broadening of obesity drugs' use, which will extend beyond the U.S. to larger numbers of patients globally," noted Morgan Stanley equity analyst Terence Flynn.

The Smartphone Moment for Weight-Loss Drugs

Industry insiders are drawing a fascinating parallel to help explain where this market is headed. Think back to smartphones around 2015-2016. By then, everyone either had one or was about to get one. The novelty phase was over, and the focus shifted to who could execute at scale, manage costs, and build the best ecosystem.

"The obesity drug market is still growing, but the novelty phase is ending and the focus is shifting to execution, scale, cost-control, and ecosystem," said Nazar Hembara, PhD and CEO at All Clinical Trials, a clinical drug evaluation company. "At that time, everyone already had a smartphone or was about to get one, carriers cut subsidies, margins tightened, and the companies that couldn't scale or manage cost got left behind. That's the market weight-loss drugs are entering now."

Signs of this transition are everywhere. Originally, GLP-1 drugs made a massive splash, but now employers and insurance payers are asking tougher questions: Can this be delivered at scale? Will costs stay sustainable, or will they keep climbing? Will these drugs reduce downstream disease burden?

Hembara shared a telling conversation with a benefits director who revealed their GLP-1 spend growth outpaced every other budget line item. "When that kind of number hits the CFO's desk, coverage policy changes fast," Hembara said. "Now we're seeing more drug candidates in late-stage trials and manufacturing ramping up, which means pricing pressure and higher execution risk."

What To Look For in Weight-Loss Drug Investments

For investors eyeing this sector, the calculus has changed. It's not just about backing the next wonder drug anymore. You need to balance potential cost risks against genuine growth potential, and that means asking harder questions.

When Hembara evaluates weight-loss drug stocks, he focuses on three critical factors: late-stage, multi-marker metabolic data that goes beyond simple weight loss, credible manufacturing and supply readiness, and a reimbursement story that actually makes sense for insurers and employers. "One company can nail the molecule, but if they can't scale or get payers aligned, they'll struggle," he explained.

With that framework in mind, let's explore three weight-loss drug stocks demonstrating both current value and long-term growth potential.

Novo Nordisk: A Bargain After the Beating

Year-to-Date Performance: -45.49%

Denmark-based Novo Nordisk (NVO) has taken an absolute pounding in 2025, with shares dropping 46% year to date and 55% over the past full year. But here's the thing about dramatic selloffs: they sometimes create compelling entry points for patient investors.

The company just caught a major break. The Trump administration reached an agreement with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly (LLY) to expand consumer access to GLP-1 medicines. The deal involves the federal government securing lower prices for these in-demand weight-loss drugs under Medicare and Medicaid. Novo says this agreement is part of a broader strategy to expand access to its flagship Ozempic and Wegovy obesity drugs through consumer-friendly retail partners including Costco, GoodRx, and WeightWatchers.

The company is also rolling out its weight-loss drugs at a direct-to-consumer price of $349 per month, though the highest Ozempic doses will run $499 monthly. Add in a solid 2.52% dividend yield, and NVO starts looking more attractive as some light breaks through the clouds.

Eli Lilly: The Rising Challenger

Year-to-Date Performance: -36.1%

Indianapolis-based Eli Lilly represents the surging challenger to Novo Nordisk in the weight-loss race, particularly with Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for obesity showing explosive growth. These two drugs alone generated $10.1 billion in the third quarter of 2025, up from $4.3 billion in Q3 2024. Wall Street analysts estimate Eli Lilly's obesity drug portfolio could hit $101 billion in peak revenue worldwide.

The company also recently crossed the $1 trillion market capitalization threshold, becoming the first healthcare company ever to reach that milestone. The fundamentals look strong too, with $59.4 billion in revenues over the past year and a three-year expected growth rate of 17.1% annually.

Analysts are generally bullish on the stock. Truist Securities' Robyn Karnauskas maintains a Buy rating and recently raised the price target to $1,182 from $1,038. The stock currently trades around $1,050.

Viking Therapeutics: The Small-Cap Dark Horse

Year-to-Date Performance: -17.20%

San Diego-based Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) sports a $3 billion market cap as it awaits formal clearance for Phase 3 trials of VK2735, a weight-loss drug showing strong promise.

"VKTX is the only small-cap with data strong enough to stand next to the big players," Hembara said. "Their Phase 2 results were impressively competitive, and they've already completed Phase 3 enrollment, which is rare at their size."

The strategic backdrop has also improved significantly following Pfizer's acquisition of Metsera's obesity and metabolic program. "It's becoming clear big-pharma is willing to buy late-stage metabolic assets rather than always build them in-house," Hembara noted. "Viking fits that profile perfectly, with strong data, ready for partnership or acquisition, and listed at a small-cap valuation. If their Phase 3 read-out mirrors Phase 2, they become the cleanest asymmetric bet in the space."

The weight-loss drug market is entering a new phase where execution matters as much as innovation. For investors willing to look past short-term volatility, these three stocks offer different ways to play this massive market shift.

Back to News

Why Weight-Loss Drug Stocks Could Be Your Next Big Investment Move

MarketDash Editorial Team
16 days ago
The weight-loss drug market is exploding from $15 billion to a projected $150 billion by 2035. Here's why industry experts compare it to the 2015 smartphone boom, and three stocks worth watching as the sector shifts from novelty to execution.

Here's something you don't hear every day: the weight-loss drug market is, ironically enough, expanding like crazy. According to Morgan Stanley, we're looking at growth from $15 billion in 2024 to $150 billion by 2035. That's a tenfold increase in just over a decade.

The numbers behind this surge are pretty remarkable. Morgan Stanley reports that 11% of the global eligible population of 1.3 billion people are already taking weight-loss drugs. In the U.S., that figure jumps to 20% of eligible patients, while other countries clock in around 10%. What's fueling this takeoff? Expanded supply, clinical benefits extending to heart and kidney disease, and increasingly generous employer drug coverage.

"We believe we are now at an inflection point for the broadening of obesity drugs' use, which will extend beyond the U.S. to larger numbers of patients globally," noted Morgan Stanley equity analyst Terence Flynn.

The Smartphone Moment for Weight-Loss Drugs

Industry insiders are drawing a fascinating parallel to help explain where this market is headed. Think back to smartphones around 2015-2016. By then, everyone either had one or was about to get one. The novelty phase was over, and the focus shifted to who could execute at scale, manage costs, and build the best ecosystem.

"The obesity drug market is still growing, but the novelty phase is ending and the focus is shifting to execution, scale, cost-control, and ecosystem," said Nazar Hembara, PhD and CEO at All Clinical Trials, a clinical drug evaluation company. "At that time, everyone already had a smartphone or was about to get one, carriers cut subsidies, margins tightened, and the companies that couldn't scale or manage cost got left behind. That's the market weight-loss drugs are entering now."

Signs of this transition are everywhere. Originally, GLP-1 drugs made a massive splash, but now employers and insurance payers are asking tougher questions: Can this be delivered at scale? Will costs stay sustainable, or will they keep climbing? Will these drugs reduce downstream disease burden?

Hembara shared a telling conversation with a benefits director who revealed their GLP-1 spend growth outpaced every other budget line item. "When that kind of number hits the CFO's desk, coverage policy changes fast," Hembara said. "Now we're seeing more drug candidates in late-stage trials and manufacturing ramping up, which means pricing pressure and higher execution risk."

What To Look For in Weight-Loss Drug Investments

For investors eyeing this sector, the calculus has changed. It's not just about backing the next wonder drug anymore. You need to balance potential cost risks against genuine growth potential, and that means asking harder questions.

When Hembara evaluates weight-loss drug stocks, he focuses on three critical factors: late-stage, multi-marker metabolic data that goes beyond simple weight loss, credible manufacturing and supply readiness, and a reimbursement story that actually makes sense for insurers and employers. "One company can nail the molecule, but if they can't scale or get payers aligned, they'll struggle," he explained.

With that framework in mind, let's explore three weight-loss drug stocks demonstrating both current value and long-term growth potential.

Novo Nordisk: A Bargain After the Beating

Year-to-Date Performance: -45.49%

Denmark-based Novo Nordisk (NVO) has taken an absolute pounding in 2025, with shares dropping 46% year to date and 55% over the past full year. But here's the thing about dramatic selloffs: they sometimes create compelling entry points for patient investors.

The company just caught a major break. The Trump administration reached an agreement with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly (LLY) to expand consumer access to GLP-1 medicines. The deal involves the federal government securing lower prices for these in-demand weight-loss drugs under Medicare and Medicaid. Novo says this agreement is part of a broader strategy to expand access to its flagship Ozempic and Wegovy obesity drugs through consumer-friendly retail partners including Costco, GoodRx, and WeightWatchers.

The company is also rolling out its weight-loss drugs at a direct-to-consumer price of $349 per month, though the highest Ozempic doses will run $499 monthly. Add in a solid 2.52% dividend yield, and NVO starts looking more attractive as some light breaks through the clouds.

Eli Lilly: The Rising Challenger

Year-to-Date Performance: -36.1%

Indianapolis-based Eli Lilly represents the surging challenger to Novo Nordisk in the weight-loss race, particularly with Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for obesity showing explosive growth. These two drugs alone generated $10.1 billion in the third quarter of 2025, up from $4.3 billion in Q3 2024. Wall Street analysts estimate Eli Lilly's obesity drug portfolio could hit $101 billion in peak revenue worldwide.

The company also recently crossed the $1 trillion market capitalization threshold, becoming the first healthcare company ever to reach that milestone. The fundamentals look strong too, with $59.4 billion in revenues over the past year and a three-year expected growth rate of 17.1% annually.

Analysts are generally bullish on the stock. Truist Securities' Robyn Karnauskas maintains a Buy rating and recently raised the price target to $1,182 from $1,038. The stock currently trades around $1,050.

Viking Therapeutics: The Small-Cap Dark Horse

Year-to-Date Performance: -17.20%

San Diego-based Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) sports a $3 billion market cap as it awaits formal clearance for Phase 3 trials of VK2735, a weight-loss drug showing strong promise.

"VKTX is the only small-cap with data strong enough to stand next to the big players," Hembara said. "Their Phase 2 results were impressively competitive, and they've already completed Phase 3 enrollment, which is rare at their size."

The strategic backdrop has also improved significantly following Pfizer's acquisition of Metsera's obesity and metabolic program. "It's becoming clear big-pharma is willing to buy late-stage metabolic assets rather than always build them in-house," Hembara noted. "Viking fits that profile perfectly, with strong data, ready for partnership or acquisition, and listed at a small-cap valuation. If their Phase 3 read-out mirrors Phase 2, they become the cleanest asymmetric bet in the space."

The weight-loss drug market is entering a new phase where execution matters as much as innovation. For investors willing to look past short-term volatility, these three stocks offer different ways to play this massive market shift.