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Big Tech's Bitcoin Bet That Never Happened: Prediction Market Falls From 69% to 5%

MarketDash Editorial Team
16 days ago
Prediction market traders were convinced at least one Magnificent Seven company would add Bitcoin to its balance sheet in 2025. With weeks left in the year, those odds have collapsed to just 5% as the tech giants continue to steer clear of crypto investments.

When the Magnificent Seven speaks, markets listen. These companies are so massive that their earnings reports can swing entire sectors, and an offhand comment from management can send shockwaves through Wall Street. So what if one of them decided to add Bitcoin (BTC) to its corporate treasury? The cryptocurrency community has been waiting for that moment all year, and it's looking increasingly like they'll be waiting into 2026.

The Great Letdown

Prediction market Kalshi hosts a fascinating bet on whether any Magnificent Seven company would announce a Bitcoin purchase in 2025. The results tell a story of hope slowly deflating. On January 1, traders pegged the odds at nearly 69%, convinced that at least one tech titan would follow in Tesla's (TSLA) footsteps. By mid-year on June 30, optimism had cooled but still held at 24%. Now, with just over a month left in the year, the odds have cratered to 5%.

The market comments capture the early enthusiasm perfectly. "This is free money, Tesla loves btc," one confident user declared in July. Another pointed to Amazon supposedly pushing for a Bitcoin investment back in February. One January commenter suggested that a strategic Bitcoin reserve announcement from the U.S. government would create a "high likelihood" that Tesla, Meta, or Amazon would jump in.

Spoiler alert: none of that happened. To be clear, buying Bitcoin ETFs wouldn't count toward winning this bet. The market specifically requires a company to add actual Bitcoin to its balance sheet, and so far in 2025, all seven companies (Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla) have stayed on the sidelines.

Tesla's Mixed Crypto History

Here's the thing though: Tesla already took the Bitcoin plunge once, which is partly why traders thought it might happen again. Back on February 8, 2021, the electric vehicle maker announced it had purchased $1.5 billion in Bitcoin, sending crypto enthusiasts into a frenzy. The excitement didn't last long.

Tesla sold $272 million worth during the first quarter of 2021, then dumped 75% of its remaining stake in 2022. As of the third quarter, the company still held $1.315 billion in digital assets, which includes its remaining Bitcoin holdings and likely some Dogecoin (DOGE) as well. Tesla accepts Dogecoin for certain merchandise purchases and previously accepted Bitcoin for vehicle payments before discontinuing that option.

Given this track record of buying and then backing away, Tesla seems like an unlikely candidate to double down on Bitcoin anytime soon.

Microsoft's Very Public Rejection

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) came the closest among the other six companies to joining the Bitcoin club. A shareholder proposal made it all the way to a vote, suggesting the company allocate 1% of its cash holdings to Bitcoin as an inflation hedge. The proposal even attracted Strategy Inc Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, a prominent Bitcoin advocate, who pitched Microsoft shareholders on cryptocurrency's long-term potential.

Shareholders weren't buying it. They voted the proposal down in December 2024, which pretty much slams the door shut on Microsoft adding Bitcoin anytime soon.

What About 2026?

With 2025 essentially in the books for this prediction market, the question naturally shifts to next year. Will any of the Magnificent Seven change their stance on Bitcoin in 2026? Right now, there's zero indication that any of the five companies that haven't touched Bitcoin are reconsidering their position.

The path forward for corporate Bitcoin adoption among these tech giants remains murky. Some might eventually put the question to shareholder votes like Microsoft did. Others could simply make the purchase and disclose it later in their financial reports. Tesla could theoretically announce it's accepting Bitcoin for vehicle payments again before buying more for its balance sheet.

But as things stand, the Magnificent Seven appear content to let smaller companies like Strategy experiment with Bitcoin treasury strategies while they focus on their core businesses. For crypto bulls hoping a tech giant endorsement would send Bitcoin soaring, 2025 turned out to be a year of dashed expectations.

Back to News

Big Tech's Bitcoin Bet That Never Happened: Prediction Market Falls From 69% to 5%

MarketDash Editorial Team
16 days ago
Prediction market traders were convinced at least one Magnificent Seven company would add Bitcoin to its balance sheet in 2025. With weeks left in the year, those odds have collapsed to just 5% as the tech giants continue to steer clear of crypto investments.

When the Magnificent Seven speaks, markets listen. These companies are so massive that their earnings reports can swing entire sectors, and an offhand comment from management can send shockwaves through Wall Street. So what if one of them decided to add Bitcoin (BTC) to its corporate treasury? The cryptocurrency community has been waiting for that moment all year, and it's looking increasingly like they'll be waiting into 2026.

The Great Letdown

Prediction market Kalshi hosts a fascinating bet on whether any Magnificent Seven company would announce a Bitcoin purchase in 2025. The results tell a story of hope slowly deflating. On January 1, traders pegged the odds at nearly 69%, convinced that at least one tech titan would follow in Tesla's (TSLA) footsteps. By mid-year on June 30, optimism had cooled but still held at 24%. Now, with just over a month left in the year, the odds have cratered to 5%.

The market comments capture the early enthusiasm perfectly. "This is free money, Tesla loves btc," one confident user declared in July. Another pointed to Amazon supposedly pushing for a Bitcoin investment back in February. One January commenter suggested that a strategic Bitcoin reserve announcement from the U.S. government would create a "high likelihood" that Tesla, Meta, or Amazon would jump in.

Spoiler alert: none of that happened. To be clear, buying Bitcoin ETFs wouldn't count toward winning this bet. The market specifically requires a company to add actual Bitcoin to its balance sheet, and so far in 2025, all seven companies (Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla) have stayed on the sidelines.

Tesla's Mixed Crypto History

Here's the thing though: Tesla already took the Bitcoin plunge once, which is partly why traders thought it might happen again. Back on February 8, 2021, the electric vehicle maker announced it had purchased $1.5 billion in Bitcoin, sending crypto enthusiasts into a frenzy. The excitement didn't last long.

Tesla sold $272 million worth during the first quarter of 2021, then dumped 75% of its remaining stake in 2022. As of the third quarter, the company still held $1.315 billion in digital assets, which includes its remaining Bitcoin holdings and likely some Dogecoin (DOGE) as well. Tesla accepts Dogecoin for certain merchandise purchases and previously accepted Bitcoin for vehicle payments before discontinuing that option.

Given this track record of buying and then backing away, Tesla seems like an unlikely candidate to double down on Bitcoin anytime soon.

Microsoft's Very Public Rejection

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) came the closest among the other six companies to joining the Bitcoin club. A shareholder proposal made it all the way to a vote, suggesting the company allocate 1% of its cash holdings to Bitcoin as an inflation hedge. The proposal even attracted Strategy Inc Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, a prominent Bitcoin advocate, who pitched Microsoft shareholders on cryptocurrency's long-term potential.

Shareholders weren't buying it. They voted the proposal down in December 2024, which pretty much slams the door shut on Microsoft adding Bitcoin anytime soon.

What About 2026?

With 2025 essentially in the books for this prediction market, the question naturally shifts to next year. Will any of the Magnificent Seven change their stance on Bitcoin in 2026? Right now, there's zero indication that any of the five companies that haven't touched Bitcoin are reconsidering their position.

The path forward for corporate Bitcoin adoption among these tech giants remains murky. Some might eventually put the question to shareholder votes like Microsoft did. Others could simply make the purchase and disclose it later in their financial reports. Tesla could theoretically announce it's accepting Bitcoin for vehicle payments again before buying more for its balance sheet.

But as things stand, the Magnificent Seven appear content to let smaller companies like Strategy experiment with Bitcoin treasury strategies while they focus on their core businesses. For crypto bulls hoping a tech giant endorsement would send Bitcoin soaring, 2025 turned out to be a year of dashed expectations.