Nvidia Corp (NVDA) shares are having a rough November, down more than 13% despite the company printing record earnings. But Gene Munster from Deepwater Asset Management says investors might be focusing on the wrong story. The real catalyst could be sitting in Washington, where the Trump administration is reportedly reconsidering export restrictions that have kept Nvidia's advanced chips out of Chinese hands.
The H200 Question Gets A Second Look
According to a Friday report from Reuters, the Commerce Department is reviewing whether to allow Nvidia to restart sales of its high-end H200 AI chips to China. These chips were previously blocked over national security concerns, which basically shut down Nvidia's business in the region overnight.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has been vocal about the impact. He said the company's market share in China collapsed from 95% to zero, adding that he couldn't imagine "any policymaker thinking that's a good idea." Now it seems some policymakers might be rethinking that approach.
What China Access Could Mean For The Numbers
In a video posted on social media, Munster called the potential policy reversal a "material win" for Nvidia and its investors. His math is straightforward but striking: allowing H200 shipments could lift the company's 2025 revenue growth from Wall Street's current expectation of 49% to roughly 72%.
How does he get there? Munster points to earlier comments from Huang suggesting Nvidia could generate as much as $50 billion in China revenue in 2025 using compliant chips. Add that to the Street's current revenue forecast of about $330 billion, and you land in the low-70% growth range.
Munster also noted that former Trump administration officials told him Nvidia chips have been a central topic in U.S.-China trade discussions. China's continued pursuit of Nvidia's hardware, he said, underscores its technical advantage over alternatives.
The Street Might Be Missing The Momentum
Even without China coming back online, Munster thinks analysts are undervaluing what Nvidia can deliver. He argues that consensus estimates are "mis-modeling" the second half of 2025.
The issue, according to Munster, is that tough year-over-year comparisons in early 2026 are masking the company's actual momentum. If you adjust for last year's China revenue loss, Nvidia's January quarter would show nearly 100% growth. As those comparisons ease later in the year, analysts are still assuming an unnecessary slowdown.
In his view, Nvidia is positioned to grow "60% plus" even if China remains restricted, and "75% plus" if H200 exports resume.
Down 13% Despite Record Results
Nvidia shares fell 0.97% on Friday, capping off their worst month since March. The November decline comes despite the company reporting $57 billion in third-quarter revenue, representing a 70% jump from the prior year.
Market commentator The Kobeissi Letter put Nvidia's performance in perspective by comparing it to legacy chipmakers. The company's third-quarter revenue was more than 2.5 times the combined $22.9 billion reported by Intel Corp (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD).
The profit comparison is even more striking. Nvidia delivered $31.8 billion in net income, surpassing Intel and AMD's combined quarterly revenue by nearly $9 billion.
Since the first quarter of 2023, Nvidia's profit has surged 2,170%, while revenue has climbed 700%. Over the same period, Intel's sales rose just 7%, and AMD's increased 70%. Kobeissi said the scale and speed of Nvidia's growth remain "unprecedented" in the semiconductor industry.
The bottom line? Whether or not the H200 gets approved for China, Munster thinks Wall Street is underestimating what Nvidia can do next year. And if that approval comes through, the upside could be much bigger than current forecasts suggest.