The Thanksgiving dinner table is turning into a political battlefield, and Senator Adam Schiff isn't letting President Donald Trump's grocery price victory lap go unchallenged.

The Turkey Talk Gets Political

In a Sunday post on X, the California Democrat laid out some uncomfortable numbers for the White House. "As we approach Thanksgiving, let's take stock on Donald Trump's promise to reduce costs," Schiff wrote. "Turkeys up 40 percent. Sweet potatoes, 37 percent. Beef up 10 percent. … But he needs to do something about it."

Schiff's accompanying video went further, connecting at least some of those price jumps to Trump's tariff policy. Higher import duties raise costs on everything from turkey feed to other agricultural inputs, which eventually show up at the checkout counter.

What the Farm Bureau Actually Found

Here's where things get interesting. The American Farm Bureau Federation's annual survey tells a mixed story. The average Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people now costs $55.18, which is actually down 5% from 2024. Sounds good, right?

Not so fast. About half the items on that shopping list got more expensive. Sweet potatoes jumped 37%, and vegetable trays shot up more than 60%. Beef prices remain elevated across many regions. Wholesale turkey prices have been volatile thanks to bird flu outbreaks, though some retailers managed to lock in promotional discounts.

Trump has pointed to a Walmart (WMT) holiday meal bundle as proof costs are falling—he claims it's roughly 25% cheaper. But PolitiFact and AP Fact Focus threw flags on that comparison. The bundle contains fewer items and smaller portions than before, so the lower price reflects savvy marketing more than genuine deflation.

The Treasury's Defense Meets Economic Reality

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went on NBC News the same day as Schiff's comments, insisting Americans are heading for the "lowest-cost Thanksgiving dinner in four years." He waved off concerns about recent price upticks.

The inflation picture is genuinely complicated. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in September after a 0.4% August increase. Food costs are up about 3% over the past year—not catastrophic, but not exactly victory material either. Economist Peter Schiff recently cautioned that Trump was claiming credit too early, warning that "not only is inflation not dead" and that tariffs could easily push prices higher again.

So who's right? Well, both sides are cherry-picking a bit. Overall Thanksgiving costs are down from last year's peak, but many individual items cost significantly more than when Trump first took office. Whether that's a win depends entirely on which baseline you're using.