If your tech-heavy portfolio took a beating in November, you're not alone. But before you hit the sell button in a panic, consider what happened the last 15 times the Nasdaq 100 had a month this bad.
Spoiler alert: Things got better. Much better, in most cases.
When Tech Gets Whacked
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, has dropped over 5% this month through November 24. That makes it the index's worst month since March. AI stocks cooled off, sky-high valuations started looking a bit less justified, and those persistent macro worries came creeping back.
Not exactly fun. But here's the thing: we've been here before, and what typically follows isn't more carnage—it's opportunity.
The Numbers Tell an Interesting Story
A deep dive into recent market history reveals that the Nasdaq 100 has logged 15 monthly drops exceeding 5% over the past seven years. What happened after each of these painful months? In most cases, serious gains.
On average, after a monthly drop of more than 5%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 2.56% over the next month, 8.19% over three months, 15.69% over six months, and 27.01% over 12 months. Not too shabby for investors who kept their cool.
The probability of seeing positive returns improved dramatically with time. Win rates stood at 53% after one month, 67% after three months, 73% after six months, and nearly 86% after a full year. Those are odds worth paying attention to.
The Best and Worst Case Scenarios
The most spectacular rebound came after the COVID-driven panic in April 2020, when the Nasdaq 100 rocketed 67.6% over the following year. January 2023 wasn't far behind with a 53.8% gain over 12 months, while March 2020 delivered a 52.6% return.
October 2022 added another impressive rally to the list, posting a 34.1% gain one year later. Even relatively modest declines proved rewarding—after a 2% dip in October 2023, the index climbed 36.3% over the next year.
Of course, not every pullback turned into champagne and confetti. The worst result came after the February 2022 drop, when the Nasdaq 100 plunged 18.9% over the following year as aggressive rate hikes hammered growth stocks. Similarly, October 2021 ended with a 25.3% loss over 12 months.
But here's what matters: 13 of the 15 historical cases ended with positive one-year returns. That's a pretty compelling track record suggesting that tech-sector pullbacks often create the foundation for strong comebacks.
The Full Historical Breakdown
| Entry Date: After >5% NDX Monthly Drop | Forward 1M % | Forward 3M % | Forward 6M % | Forward 12M % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-11-01 | 0.20 | -0.86 | 1.69 | 16.03 |
| 2019-01-02 | 9.11 | 16.57 | 21.19 | 37.96 |
| 2019-06-03 | 7.62 | 7.90 | 17.90 | 34.06 |
| 2020-03-02 | -7.66 | 12.92 | 43.12 | 52.56 |
| 2020-04-01 | 15.19 | 29.99 | 46.13 | 67.55 |
| 2020-10-01 | -3.20 | 12.88 | 14.66 | 28.65 |
| 2021-10-01 | 7.90 | 11.10 | 1.01 | -25.31 |
| 2022-02-01 | -4.64 | -13.90 | -13.28 | -18.94 |
| 2022-05-02 | -1.65 | 0.72 | -11.27 | 3.04 |
| 2022-07-01 | 12.55 | -4.63 | -4.90 | 31.95 |
| 2022-09-01 | -10.60 | -1.97 | -1.87 | 26.31 |
| 2022-10-03 | 3.96 | -0.29 | 20.14 | 34.13 |
| 2023-01-03 | 10.62 | 20.49 | 38.75 | 53.81 |
| 2023-10-02 | -2.08 | 14.34 | 24.05 | 36.33 |
| 2025-04-01 | 1.52 | 17.64 | 28.02 | — |
| AVG | 2.56 | 8.19 | 15.69 | 27.01 |
| WIN % | 53.33 | 66.67 | 73.33 | 85.71 |
Is This Time Different?
Historical analysis delivers a straightforward message: Nasdaq 100 pullbacks of 5% or more often come right before powerful rallies. As the index limps into the final stretch of the year, market history suggests this looks more like a reset than the beginning of something worse.
Sure, risks remain. Not every drop magically transforms into a rally, and macro uncertainty isn't going anywhere. The Fed's still navigating inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions simmer, and valuations in certain corners of tech remain stretched.
But if the market is simply taking a breather after an explosive AI-fueled run, then this pullback might be setting up the next leg higher. For investors with patience and a stomach for volatility, history suggests the odds favor those who view weakness as opportunity rather than catastrophe.
The question isn't whether tech will ever bounce back. It's whether you'll still be holding when it does.