Bitcoin (BTC) is down 35% in six weeks, and naturally, everyone's calling it the end. Technical levels are broken, moving averages are toast, and sentiment has flipped from optimistic to deeply pessimistic. But according to analyst Kevin, there's one event that hasn't happened yet that will actually tell us where this cycle is headed.

The Setup: Kevin laid out the bearish case in his latest podcast, and it's not hard to see why traders are nervous. Bitcoin lost the 2-day 200 EMA/SMA and the 50-week SMA. It broke below the $98,000-$106,800 zone, a technically loaded region packed with Fibonacci levels and long-term resistance. Four-year cycle ROI readings now look like late-cycle exhaustion.

His base case? This is a standard correction window lasting 114-174 days, with the low probably forming somewhere between $70,000 and $80,000. But here's the important part: what happens after that low determines everything.

The Rally That Matters: Kevin says the counter-trend rally that forms after the low is the real test. If Bitcoin reclaims $98,000-$106,800 and retakes those key moving averages, new all-time highs become likely. If it gets rejected at that zone, then the true bear market begins. Don't rush to call the cycle over, he says. Wait for confirmation from that next major rally.

Why This Isn't 2021: Kevin points out that comparing today to the 2021-22 top doesn't hold up. Back then, inflation was surging, the Fed was aggressively hiking, and quantitative tightening had just started. Today's macro backdrop is almost the opposite: inflation is cooling, the Fed is easing, quantitative tightening ends in December, and PMIs remain in contraction—historically supportive for risk assets.

Even sentiment contradicts a macro top. Social metrics have collapsed to record lows, while real cycle tops are usually marked by extreme euphoria. So maybe this isn't over yet.