Wall Street Surges as Fed Rate Cut Bets Jump to 77%

MarketDash Editorial Team
13 days ago
Markets kicked off Thanksgiving week with a powerful rally as traders dramatically increased their bets on a December rate cut. Tech stocks led the charge, with the Nasdaq 100 posting its strongest single-day performance since May after dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials shifted sentiment.

Sometimes the market just needs someone important to say the right words. Wall Street got exactly that heading into Thanksgiving week, and responded with the kind of rally that makes traders very grateful indeed.

The catalyst? A one-two punch of dovish commentary from Federal Reserve officials that sent interest rate cut expectations soaring. New York Fed President John Williams kicked things off Friday, followed by Governor Christopher Waller on Monday, and markets wasted no time repricing what December might bring.

The numbers tell the story: traders now see a 77% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed's December 10 meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. That's up from 71% on Friday and a mere 25% just one week ago. That's not a shift, that's a wholesale recalibration of expectations.

Tech Takes the Lead

The Nasdaq 100 captured the moment, surging 2.4% by mid-morning in New York and eyeing its strongest single-day rally since late May. When rate cut expectations rise, growth stocks tend to party hardest, and Monday was no exception.

The S&P 500 climbed 1.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added a more modest 0.7%. The Dow's relative underperformance makes sense when you consider its lower exposure to the high-growth tech names that were absolutely screaming higher. Small-cap stocks joined the celebration too, with the Russell 2000 jumping 1.7%.

Semiconductor stocks led the charge, powered by continued AI enthusiasm. Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) rocketed 9% higher, while Micron Technology Inc. (MU) rose 8% and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) gained 4.5%. The AI trade, it seems, is alive and well.

Magnificent Seven Shakeup

Within the elite club of mega-cap tech stocks, Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) stood out with a 4.7% gain. The move was significant enough to push Alphabet's market capitalization above Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), making it the world's third-largest publicly traded company. That's the kind of reshuffling that typically only happens when billions of dollars are moving fast.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) also had a banner day, soaring 7% after CEO Elon Musk announced Sunday that the company would design and deploy "several million AI chips" across its vehicle fleet and data centers. The market clearly liked what it heard.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) gained nearly 2% following news that it plans to invest up to $50 billion to expand its artificial intelligence and supercomputing infrastructure specifically tailored for U.S. government agencies. When Amazon commits that kind of capital to AI infrastructure, people pay attention.

Beyond Equities

After a volatile week, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) edged 0.5% higher to $87,000, suggesting the recent crypto selloff might be taking a breather. In commodities, gold rose 0.8% to $4,100, while silver gained 1% to $50.50.

Monday's Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs

Major IndicesPrice1-day %
Nasdaq 10024,812.672.4%
Russell 20002,407.981.7%
S&P 5006,700.971.5%
Dow Jones46,562.450.7%
Updated by 11:50 a.m. ET

Looking at the exchange-traded funds, the moves reflected the broader market's tilt toward technology:

  • The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:VOO) rose 1.4% to $614.40.
  • The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE:DIA) rose 0.6% to $465.25.
  • The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust Series (NASDAQ:QQQ) rallied 2.3% to $603.63.
  • The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM) rose 1.6% to $239.38.
  • The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLK) outperformed, up 2.6%; the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLP) lagged, down 0.9%.

Russell 1000's Top 5 Gainers On Monday

Stock Name% Change
Inspire Medical Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:INSP)+28.06%
Sandisk Corp. (NASDAQ:SNDK)+13.19%
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:LITE)+13.15%
Tenet Healthcare Corp. (NYSE:THC)+9.51%
Ciena Corp. (NYSE:CIEN)+9.45%

Russell 1000's Top 5 Losers On Monday

Stock Name% Change
Copart Inc. (NASDAQ:CPRT)-5.02%
Nexstar Media Group Inc. (NASDAQ:NXST)-3.55%
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:OLLI)-3.51%
H&R Block Inc. (NYSE:HRB)-3.43%
Service Corp. International (NYSE:SCI)-3.36%

The message from Monday's trading session is clear: when the Federal Reserve even hints at easing monetary policy, investors don't wait around to see what happens next. They bid up growth stocks, pile into tech, and generally position themselves for a world where borrowing costs might actually come down. Whether the Fed delivers in December remains to be seen, but for now, markets are betting heavily that it will.

Wall Street Surges as Fed Rate Cut Bets Jump to 77%

MarketDash Editorial Team
13 days ago
Markets kicked off Thanksgiving week with a powerful rally as traders dramatically increased their bets on a December rate cut. Tech stocks led the charge, with the Nasdaq 100 posting its strongest single-day performance since May after dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials shifted sentiment.

Sometimes the market just needs someone important to say the right words. Wall Street got exactly that heading into Thanksgiving week, and responded with the kind of rally that makes traders very grateful indeed.

The catalyst? A one-two punch of dovish commentary from Federal Reserve officials that sent interest rate cut expectations soaring. New York Fed President John Williams kicked things off Friday, followed by Governor Christopher Waller on Monday, and markets wasted no time repricing what December might bring.

The numbers tell the story: traders now see a 77% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed's December 10 meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. That's up from 71% on Friday and a mere 25% just one week ago. That's not a shift, that's a wholesale recalibration of expectations.

Tech Takes the Lead

The Nasdaq 100 captured the moment, surging 2.4% by mid-morning in New York and eyeing its strongest single-day rally since late May. When rate cut expectations rise, growth stocks tend to party hardest, and Monday was no exception.

The S&P 500 climbed 1.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added a more modest 0.7%. The Dow's relative underperformance makes sense when you consider its lower exposure to the high-growth tech names that were absolutely screaming higher. Small-cap stocks joined the celebration too, with the Russell 2000 jumping 1.7%.

Semiconductor stocks led the charge, powered by continued AI enthusiasm. Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) rocketed 9% higher, while Micron Technology Inc. (MU) rose 8% and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) gained 4.5%. The AI trade, it seems, is alive and well.

Magnificent Seven Shakeup

Within the elite club of mega-cap tech stocks, Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) stood out with a 4.7% gain. The move was significant enough to push Alphabet's market capitalization above Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), making it the world's third-largest publicly traded company. That's the kind of reshuffling that typically only happens when billions of dollars are moving fast.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) also had a banner day, soaring 7% after CEO Elon Musk announced Sunday that the company would design and deploy "several million AI chips" across its vehicle fleet and data centers. The market clearly liked what it heard.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) gained nearly 2% following news that it plans to invest up to $50 billion to expand its artificial intelligence and supercomputing infrastructure specifically tailored for U.S. government agencies. When Amazon commits that kind of capital to AI infrastructure, people pay attention.

Beyond Equities

After a volatile week, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) edged 0.5% higher to $87,000, suggesting the recent crypto selloff might be taking a breather. In commodities, gold rose 0.8% to $4,100, while silver gained 1% to $50.50.

Monday's Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs

Major IndicesPrice1-day %
Nasdaq 10024,812.672.4%
Russell 20002,407.981.7%
S&P 5006,700.971.5%
Dow Jones46,562.450.7%
Updated by 11:50 a.m. ET

Looking at the exchange-traded funds, the moves reflected the broader market's tilt toward technology:

  • The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:VOO) rose 1.4% to $614.40.
  • The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE:DIA) rose 0.6% to $465.25.
  • The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust Series (NASDAQ:QQQ) rallied 2.3% to $603.63.
  • The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM) rose 1.6% to $239.38.
  • The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLK) outperformed, up 2.6%; the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLP) lagged, down 0.9%.

Russell 1000's Top 5 Gainers On Monday

Stock Name% Change
Inspire Medical Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:INSP)+28.06%
Sandisk Corp. (NASDAQ:SNDK)+13.19%
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:LITE)+13.15%
Tenet Healthcare Corp. (NYSE:THC)+9.51%
Ciena Corp. (NYSE:CIEN)+9.45%

Russell 1000's Top 5 Losers On Monday

Stock Name% Change
Copart Inc. (NASDAQ:CPRT)-5.02%
Nexstar Media Group Inc. (NASDAQ:NXST)-3.55%
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:OLLI)-3.51%
H&R Block Inc. (NYSE:HRB)-3.43%
Service Corp. International (NYSE:SCI)-3.36%

The message from Monday's trading session is clear: when the Federal Reserve even hints at easing monetary policy, investors don't wait around to see what happens next. They bid up growth stocks, pile into tech, and generally position themselves for a world where borrowing costs might actually come down. Whether the Fed delivers in December remains to be seen, but for now, markets are betting heavily that it will.

    Wall Street Surges as Fed Rate Cut Bets Jump to 77% - MarketDash News