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Bitcoin Sellers May Be Running Out of Steam, But Recovery Isn't Guaranteed Yet

MarketDash Editorial Team
13 days ago
Bitcoin is attempting a comeback after touching $80,500, and fresh data suggests seller exhaustion is setting in. But derivatives markets and institutional flows tell a more complicated story about what comes next.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trying to claw its way back from oversold territory, and if you look at certain metrics, you might think the worst is over. The data suggests sellers are getting tired. But here's the catch: tired doesn't mean defeated, and the path forward still looks messy.

Oversold Conditions Signal Potential Bottom

Glassnode's latest weekly report breaks down what happened when Bitcoin tumbled below $90,000 and briefly touched $80,500. That move pushed momentum indicators into extreme oversold levels. The 14-day RSI dropped to 18.8, marking one of its lowest readings all year. When RSI gets that low, it typically means downward pressure is running out of gas.

The spot market is backing up that narrative. Spot CVD, which tracks the net difference between aggressive buys and sells, improved from negative $530 million to negative $216 million. Translation: fewer traders are panic-selling into the market. Spot volume also climbed 11.6% as participants reassessed their positions around the mid-$80,000 level. According to Glassnode, these dynamics look a lot like what you'd expect in the late stages of a correction.

Derivatives Tell a Different Story

The futures and options markets aren't nearly as optimistic. Open interest in futures contracts fell 5%, which points to position unwinds rather than fresh short bets. That's not necessarily bullish—it just means people are closing out trades.

Funding rates dropped further, showing weaker demand for leveraged long positions. Bulls aren't willing to pay up to maintain exposure anymore. Perpetual CVD stayed negative, meaning sellers still control the majority of market orders in perpetual futures.

Options markets are pricing in continued stress. Volatility spread jumped from 10.9% to 17.4%, while 25-delta skew moved above its high band. That's a clear signal that traders are buying downside protection aggressively. Options open interest held steady, which Glassnode interprets as caution rather than speculative positioning. Nobody's making big directional bets right now.

Institutions Are Getting Defensive

ETF flows added another layer of pressure. Net outflows hit $1.9 billion for the week, one of the weakest readings in months. At the same time, ETF trading volume spiked 47.5% to $40 billion as volatility brought more participants into the mix. Glassnode says this combination shows institutional sentiment shifting toward defense mode. They're reacting to price stress and derivatives weakness by pulling capital out.

On-Chain Activity Stays Quiet

On-chain fundamentals remain subdued. Active addresses ticked up slightly, while transfer volume nearly doubled to $16.1 billion. But that increase was driven by large reallocations, not retail speculation. Fee volume declined, suggesting lower demand for block space and calmer on-chain conditions overall.

Capital-flow metrics were similarly soft. Realized Cap Change, which tracks net inflows based on on-chain transaction values, dropped 28%. The short-term holder share climbed to 18.5%, implying more holders are sensitive to volatility. Hot Capital Share rose to 37.7%, indicating more active capital circulating through the market without necessarily committing long-term.

The Technical Picture: $94,000 Is the Line in the Sand

Bitcoin's recent bounce is the first strong reaction after weeks of controlled selling inside a descending channel that started in early October. The problem? It's still trading below its 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages, which are clustered between $94,000 and $106,500. That's a thick resistance ceiling that's capped every bounce over the past month.

The Donchian Channel shows price still in the lower half, which marks improvement but not a structural reversal. A critical resistance band sits between $94,000 and $100,000, where former support has flipped into major resistance. Clearing that zone could open the door to a move toward $102,000 to $106,000.

Support remains firm at $80,500 for now. Losing that level would expose the lower channel boundary and signal a deeper corrective move is underway.

So yes, sellers might be getting exhausted. But exhaustion doesn't guarantee a recovery—it just means the market is searching for a reason to pick a direction. And right now, that reason hasn't shown up yet.

Back to News

Bitcoin Sellers May Be Running Out of Steam, But Recovery Isn't Guaranteed Yet

MarketDash Editorial Team
13 days ago
Bitcoin is attempting a comeback after touching $80,500, and fresh data suggests seller exhaustion is setting in. But derivatives markets and institutional flows tell a more complicated story about what comes next.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trying to claw its way back from oversold territory, and if you look at certain metrics, you might think the worst is over. The data suggests sellers are getting tired. But here's the catch: tired doesn't mean defeated, and the path forward still looks messy.

Oversold Conditions Signal Potential Bottom

Glassnode's latest weekly report breaks down what happened when Bitcoin tumbled below $90,000 and briefly touched $80,500. That move pushed momentum indicators into extreme oversold levels. The 14-day RSI dropped to 18.8, marking one of its lowest readings all year. When RSI gets that low, it typically means downward pressure is running out of gas.

The spot market is backing up that narrative. Spot CVD, which tracks the net difference between aggressive buys and sells, improved from negative $530 million to negative $216 million. Translation: fewer traders are panic-selling into the market. Spot volume also climbed 11.6% as participants reassessed their positions around the mid-$80,000 level. According to Glassnode, these dynamics look a lot like what you'd expect in the late stages of a correction.

Derivatives Tell a Different Story

The futures and options markets aren't nearly as optimistic. Open interest in futures contracts fell 5%, which points to position unwinds rather than fresh short bets. That's not necessarily bullish—it just means people are closing out trades.

Funding rates dropped further, showing weaker demand for leveraged long positions. Bulls aren't willing to pay up to maintain exposure anymore. Perpetual CVD stayed negative, meaning sellers still control the majority of market orders in perpetual futures.

Options markets are pricing in continued stress. Volatility spread jumped from 10.9% to 17.4%, while 25-delta skew moved above its high band. That's a clear signal that traders are buying downside protection aggressively. Options open interest held steady, which Glassnode interprets as caution rather than speculative positioning. Nobody's making big directional bets right now.

Institutions Are Getting Defensive

ETF flows added another layer of pressure. Net outflows hit $1.9 billion for the week, one of the weakest readings in months. At the same time, ETF trading volume spiked 47.5% to $40 billion as volatility brought more participants into the mix. Glassnode says this combination shows institutional sentiment shifting toward defense mode. They're reacting to price stress and derivatives weakness by pulling capital out.

On-Chain Activity Stays Quiet

On-chain fundamentals remain subdued. Active addresses ticked up slightly, while transfer volume nearly doubled to $16.1 billion. But that increase was driven by large reallocations, not retail speculation. Fee volume declined, suggesting lower demand for block space and calmer on-chain conditions overall.

Capital-flow metrics were similarly soft. Realized Cap Change, which tracks net inflows based on on-chain transaction values, dropped 28%. The short-term holder share climbed to 18.5%, implying more holders are sensitive to volatility. Hot Capital Share rose to 37.7%, indicating more active capital circulating through the market without necessarily committing long-term.

The Technical Picture: $94,000 Is the Line in the Sand

Bitcoin's recent bounce is the first strong reaction after weeks of controlled selling inside a descending channel that started in early October. The problem? It's still trading below its 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages, which are clustered between $94,000 and $106,500. That's a thick resistance ceiling that's capped every bounce over the past month.

The Donchian Channel shows price still in the lower half, which marks improvement but not a structural reversal. A critical resistance band sits between $94,000 and $100,000, where former support has flipped into major resistance. Clearing that zone could open the door to a move toward $102,000 to $106,000.

Support remains firm at $80,500 for now. Losing that level would expose the lower channel boundary and signal a deeper corrective move is underway.

So yes, sellers might be getting exhausted. But exhaustion doesn't guarantee a recovery—it just means the market is searching for a reason to pick a direction. And right now, that reason hasn't shown up yet.