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Can Deere's Tech Push Overcome Tariff Headwinds? A 12-Quarter Winning Streak Hangs in the Balance

MarketDash Editorial Team
13 days ago
Deere reports quarterly results Wednesday with its impressive double-beat streak at risk. Tariffs have already cost the company $200 million, and falling demand for farm equipment isn't helping. But the company's push into precision agriculture technology could be the wildcard that keeps investors interested.

When Deere & Company (DE) reports fourth-quarter earnings Wednesday morning, the agricultural and construction equipment giant will be walking a tightrope. On one side: an impressive 12-quarter streak of beating analyst estimates on both revenue and earnings. On the other: tariffs, weakening demand, and a stock price that's been limping behind its peers.

The farming industry doesn't usually get this much attention on Wall Street, but trade policy has thrust it into the spotlight. Investors will be parsing every word of management's commentary for clues about how tariffs are reshaping the business and whether Deere's technology push can offset the pain.

The Numbers Everyone's Watching

Analysts are expecting Deere to report fourth-quarter revenue of $9.85 billion, down from $11.14 billion in the same period last year. Earnings per share are forecast at $3.85, compared to $4.55 a year ago. Both numbers point to a challenging environment, though the company has a habit of clearing the bar—it's beaten revenue estimates for more than 10 consecutive quarters and matched that streak on the earnings side.

That winning streak is part of what makes Wednesday's report so interesting. Can Deere pull off another beat in a year marked by headwinds that would sink most companies?

Tariffs Take Center Stage

"The farming industry has been in the spotlight recently due to the Trump administration tariff policy," said Jay Woods, Chief Market Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. "Investors will be focused on that impact and what guidance the company can offer when they report results on Wednesday morning."

During the third quarter, management disclosed that tariff costs had reached around $200 million. That's real money, and it prompted the company to cut its full-year guidance. The big question now: What did tariffs cost in Q4, and what's the outlook for fiscal 2026? Any concrete numbers here could move the stock significantly.

Technology as the Secret Weapon

Here's where things get interesting. While traditional farm equipment sales are under pressure, Deere has been doubling down on precision agriculture technology. RBC Capital analyst Sabahat Khan recently initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $542 price target, arguing that Deere's tech investments could fundamentally change the business model.

Khan believes Deere's focus on technology could reduce reliance on traditional equipment sales. When farmers buy connected hardware, they stay in Deere's ecosystem, generating recurring revenue that's less vulnerable to farming cycles. During the third quarter, management highlighted innovations like See & Spray and Harvest Settings Automation—tools designed to boost productivity for customers while creating stickier relationships.

Expect management to lean into this narrative again on Wednesday. Any concrete data on technology adoption rates, recurring revenue growth, or margin improvements from these products will be critical.

Segment Performance Under the Microscope

The Production and Precision Agriculture segment took a 16% year-over-year hit in Q3, driven by lower shipment volumes. That's Deere's largest business, so a continued slide would be concerning. The Construction and Forestry segment declined 5% in Q3, while Small Agriculture and Turf dropped just 1%.

Investors will want to see if these trends improved, stabilized, or worsened in the fourth quarter. Any signs of stabilization could help the stock, which Woods noted has broken below key technical support levels but might be attempting a rebound.

The Chart Battle

"As we head into the week, shares are on the verge of clearing a major resistance level at the 200-day moving average and make a run to yearly highs," Woods said. He characterized the near-term trade as more of a "50/50 call" but suggested patient investors could be rewarded over the long term.

The performance gap between Deere (DE) and Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is stark. Deere shares are up 17.3% year-to-date, while Caterpillar has surged 54%. Woods wonders whether the increased focus on agriculture can help Deere narrow that gap.

An ETF Wild Card

One final wrinkle: Deere is the largest holding in the VanEck Agribusiness ETF (MOO), representing about 8.5% of the fund's assets. A significant post-earnings move in Deere stock could create volatility for the entire ETF, making Wednesday's report relevant to a broader universe of investors.

DE Price Action: Deere stock is up 2.0% to $496.86 on Tuesday, trading within a 52-week range of $403.01 to $533.78.

Back to News

Can Deere's Tech Push Overcome Tariff Headwinds? A 12-Quarter Winning Streak Hangs in the Balance

MarketDash Editorial Team
13 days ago
Deere reports quarterly results Wednesday with its impressive double-beat streak at risk. Tariffs have already cost the company $200 million, and falling demand for farm equipment isn't helping. But the company's push into precision agriculture technology could be the wildcard that keeps investors interested.

When Deere & Company (DE) reports fourth-quarter earnings Wednesday morning, the agricultural and construction equipment giant will be walking a tightrope. On one side: an impressive 12-quarter streak of beating analyst estimates on both revenue and earnings. On the other: tariffs, weakening demand, and a stock price that's been limping behind its peers.

The farming industry doesn't usually get this much attention on Wall Street, but trade policy has thrust it into the spotlight. Investors will be parsing every word of management's commentary for clues about how tariffs are reshaping the business and whether Deere's technology push can offset the pain.

The Numbers Everyone's Watching

Analysts are expecting Deere to report fourth-quarter revenue of $9.85 billion, down from $11.14 billion in the same period last year. Earnings per share are forecast at $3.85, compared to $4.55 a year ago. Both numbers point to a challenging environment, though the company has a habit of clearing the bar—it's beaten revenue estimates for more than 10 consecutive quarters and matched that streak on the earnings side.

That winning streak is part of what makes Wednesday's report so interesting. Can Deere pull off another beat in a year marked by headwinds that would sink most companies?

Tariffs Take Center Stage

"The farming industry has been in the spotlight recently due to the Trump administration tariff policy," said Jay Woods, Chief Market Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. "Investors will be focused on that impact and what guidance the company can offer when they report results on Wednesday morning."

During the third quarter, management disclosed that tariff costs had reached around $200 million. That's real money, and it prompted the company to cut its full-year guidance. The big question now: What did tariffs cost in Q4, and what's the outlook for fiscal 2026? Any concrete numbers here could move the stock significantly.

Technology as the Secret Weapon

Here's where things get interesting. While traditional farm equipment sales are under pressure, Deere has been doubling down on precision agriculture technology. RBC Capital analyst Sabahat Khan recently initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $542 price target, arguing that Deere's tech investments could fundamentally change the business model.

Khan believes Deere's focus on technology could reduce reliance on traditional equipment sales. When farmers buy connected hardware, they stay in Deere's ecosystem, generating recurring revenue that's less vulnerable to farming cycles. During the third quarter, management highlighted innovations like See & Spray and Harvest Settings Automation—tools designed to boost productivity for customers while creating stickier relationships.

Expect management to lean into this narrative again on Wednesday. Any concrete data on technology adoption rates, recurring revenue growth, or margin improvements from these products will be critical.

Segment Performance Under the Microscope

The Production and Precision Agriculture segment took a 16% year-over-year hit in Q3, driven by lower shipment volumes. That's Deere's largest business, so a continued slide would be concerning. The Construction and Forestry segment declined 5% in Q3, while Small Agriculture and Turf dropped just 1%.

Investors will want to see if these trends improved, stabilized, or worsened in the fourth quarter. Any signs of stabilization could help the stock, which Woods noted has broken below key technical support levels but might be attempting a rebound.

The Chart Battle

"As we head into the week, shares are on the verge of clearing a major resistance level at the 200-day moving average and make a run to yearly highs," Woods said. He characterized the near-term trade as more of a "50/50 call" but suggested patient investors could be rewarded over the long term.

The performance gap between Deere (DE) and Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is stark. Deere shares are up 17.3% year-to-date, while Caterpillar has surged 54%. Woods wonders whether the increased focus on agriculture can help Deere narrow that gap.

An ETF Wild Card

One final wrinkle: Deere is the largest holding in the VanEck Agribusiness ETF (MOO), representing about 8.5% of the fund's assets. A significant post-earnings move in Deere stock could create volatility for the entire ETF, making Wednesday's report relevant to a broader universe of investors.

DE Price Action: Deere stock is up 2.0% to $496.86 on Tuesday, trading within a 52-week range of $403.01 to $533.78.