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Kevin Hassett Leads Race for Fed Chair as Prediction Markets Signal Trump's Pick

MarketDash Editorial Team
12 days ago
Kevin Hassett, Trump's National Economic Council Director, has become the frontrunner to lead the Federal Reserve. Prediction market bettors are pricing in better than 50-50 odds for his nomination, while his crypto background and rate-cut preferences draw attention.

The speculation game for who might lead the Federal Reserve next has a new frontrunner, and it's someone who checks a lot of boxes for President Donald Trump: Kevin Hassett, currently serving as White House National Economic Council Director.

According to a Bloomberg report citing people familiar with the matter, Hassett has emerged as the leading candidate among Trump's allies and advisers. This shouldn't come as a shock to anyone who's been following Trump's very public frustration with the current Fed leadership.

Why Hassett Makes Sense for Trump

Hassett isn't exactly a newcomer to Trump's orbit. He led the Council of Economic Advisers during Trump's first term, which means he's already proven he can work within the administration's framework. More importantly, sources describe him as a "close ally" who would embrace Trump's preferred approach for lowering interest rates at the Fed.

That said, nothing's carved in stone here. The nomination isn't final until Trump actually announces it, and the president has a well-documented history of surprise policy decisions that keep everyone guessing until the last moment.

What the Prediction Markets Are Saying

If you want to know where the smart money thinks this is heading, check out the prediction markets. Bettors on Polygon (POL)-based Polymarket are placing 52% odds on Trump nominating Hassett as the next Fed Chair. Over on Kalshi, punters are slightly more bullish at 55%. These aren't overwhelming odds, but they signal that market participants see Hassett as the most likely pick from the current field.

The Powell Problem

To understand why Hassett's candidacy matters, you need to understand Trump's rocky relationship with current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump has been openly critical of Powell for not cutting interest rates aggressively enough, repeatedly calling for benchmark rates to drop to "1% or 2%" from their current 3.75% to 4.00% range.

Powell's term runs until May 2026, which gives this whole situation a ticking-clock element. Trump clearly wants someone at the helm who's more aligned with his economic philosophy, particularly on the question of how fast and how far rates should fall.

The Crypto Connection

Here's where things get interesting for the digital asset crowd: Hassett has demonstrated clear crypto-friendly credentials. Before taking his current White House role, he served on Coinbase Global Inc.'s (COIN) advisory council. That's not just a ceremonial position; it suggests genuine engagement with the crypto industry's perspective on financial policy.

Even more telling, Hassett disclosed earlier in June that he holds a stake in Coinbase worth at least $1 million, according to Bloomberg. That's a meaningful financial commitment that signals he takes the crypto sector seriously.

On the rate-cut front, Hassett has been consistent in his messaging. After the Fed implemented a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, he described it as "a good first step in the right direction of much lower rates." Translation: he thinks rates should be coming down, and probably faster than Powell's been willing to move.

Market Reaction

Coinbase shares rose 0.26% in after-hours trading to $254.79 on Tuesday. The stock had closed the regular session down 0.72% at $254.12. For context, COIN currently ranks high on Growth metrics, an indicator measuring a stock's historical expansion in earnings and revenue across multiple periods.

The potential appointment of a crypto-friendly Fed Chair would represent a significant shift in how the central bank approaches digital assets and the broader financial technology sector. Whether Hassett ultimately gets the nod remains to be seen, but the prediction markets are signaling this is more than just Washington rumor mill noise.

Back to News

Kevin Hassett Leads Race for Fed Chair as Prediction Markets Signal Trump's Pick

MarketDash Editorial Team
12 days ago
Kevin Hassett, Trump's National Economic Council Director, has become the frontrunner to lead the Federal Reserve. Prediction market bettors are pricing in better than 50-50 odds for his nomination, while his crypto background and rate-cut preferences draw attention.

The speculation game for who might lead the Federal Reserve next has a new frontrunner, and it's someone who checks a lot of boxes for President Donald Trump: Kevin Hassett, currently serving as White House National Economic Council Director.

According to a Bloomberg report citing people familiar with the matter, Hassett has emerged as the leading candidate among Trump's allies and advisers. This shouldn't come as a shock to anyone who's been following Trump's very public frustration with the current Fed leadership.

Why Hassett Makes Sense for Trump

Hassett isn't exactly a newcomer to Trump's orbit. He led the Council of Economic Advisers during Trump's first term, which means he's already proven he can work within the administration's framework. More importantly, sources describe him as a "close ally" who would embrace Trump's preferred approach for lowering interest rates at the Fed.

That said, nothing's carved in stone here. The nomination isn't final until Trump actually announces it, and the president has a well-documented history of surprise policy decisions that keep everyone guessing until the last moment.

What the Prediction Markets Are Saying

If you want to know where the smart money thinks this is heading, check out the prediction markets. Bettors on Polygon (POL)-based Polymarket are placing 52% odds on Trump nominating Hassett as the next Fed Chair. Over on Kalshi, punters are slightly more bullish at 55%. These aren't overwhelming odds, but they signal that market participants see Hassett as the most likely pick from the current field.

The Powell Problem

To understand why Hassett's candidacy matters, you need to understand Trump's rocky relationship with current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump has been openly critical of Powell for not cutting interest rates aggressively enough, repeatedly calling for benchmark rates to drop to "1% or 2%" from their current 3.75% to 4.00% range.

Powell's term runs until May 2026, which gives this whole situation a ticking-clock element. Trump clearly wants someone at the helm who's more aligned with his economic philosophy, particularly on the question of how fast and how far rates should fall.

The Crypto Connection

Here's where things get interesting for the digital asset crowd: Hassett has demonstrated clear crypto-friendly credentials. Before taking his current White House role, he served on Coinbase Global Inc.'s (COIN) advisory council. That's not just a ceremonial position; it suggests genuine engagement with the crypto industry's perspective on financial policy.

Even more telling, Hassett disclosed earlier in June that he holds a stake in Coinbase worth at least $1 million, according to Bloomberg. That's a meaningful financial commitment that signals he takes the crypto sector seriously.

On the rate-cut front, Hassett has been consistent in his messaging. After the Fed implemented a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, he described it as "a good first step in the right direction of much lower rates." Translation: he thinks rates should be coming down, and probably faster than Powell's been willing to move.

Market Reaction

Coinbase shares rose 0.26% in after-hours trading to $254.79 on Tuesday. The stock had closed the regular session down 0.72% at $254.12. For context, COIN currently ranks high on Growth metrics, an indicator measuring a stock's historical expansion in earnings and revenue across multiple periods.

The potential appointment of a crypto-friendly Fed Chair would represent a significant shift in how the central bank approaches digital assets and the broader financial technology sector. Whether Hassett ultimately gets the nod remains to be seen, but the prediction markets are signaling this is more than just Washington rumor mill noise.