Kalshi just got dealt a rough hand in Nevada. A federal judge reversed what looked like a winning position for the prediction market platform, ruling that contracts based on sports outcomes don't belong under federal commodity trading oversight.
The Judge Wasn't Buying Kalshi's Argument
U.S. District Judge Andrew Gordon revoked a preliminary injunction that had been keeping Nevada regulators from calling Kalshi's sports event contracts illegal gambling. According to sports betting and gaming lawyer Daniel Wallach, the judge made it clear that sporting event outcomes "are not swaps and thus do not fall within the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction."
Gordon didn't hold back in his criticism, saying Kalshi's legal interpretation relied on a "strained reading" of what he called the "convoluted" Commodity Exchange Act. He added that accepting Kalshi's position would "upset decades of federalism" governing gaming regulations. Translation: the company was trying too hard to squeeze sports betting into a regulatory framework where it doesn't really fit.
Kalshi Fights Back With Emergency Appeal
The company isn't going down without a fight. Kalshi immediately filed an emergency motion to stay the order pending appeal, arguing that it "faces a threat of imminent criminal enforcement by Nevada authorities." That's not exactly the kind of headline a hot startup wants.
The Bigger Picture on Sports Betting
This legal setback arrives amid broader regulatory scrutiny of sports prediction markets. New York State recently pushed legislation aimed at banning sports-related prediction markets, specifically targeting bets on individual events or incidents within games. Predictions on overall tournament winners would still get a pass under that proposal.
The stakes are high for Kalshi. The federally regulated prediction market startup reportedly raised $1 billion in funding that pushed its valuation to $11 billion. The platform has processed over $18 billion in total trading volume, according to Dune Analytics. Now it needs to figure out whether sports betting fits into its future or if state gambling laws will keep it on the sidelines.