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GDS Holdings Navigates the Delicate Balance Between AI Expansion and Debt Management

MarketDash Editorial Team
12 days ago
The Chinese data center operator is tapping into newly available infrastructure REITs to pay down debt while racing to meet surging AI computing demand. With revenue up over 10% and a fresh capital recycling strategy in play, GDS is positioning itself for what could be a watershed moment in China's data center industry.

China's data center industry is having something of a moment. On one side, the explosion in AI training and inference is creating voracious demand for high-performance computing infrastructure. On the other, the country just launched its first batch of infrastructure-oriented real estate investment trusts specifically for data centers, giving these capital-hungry operators a new way to raise money without piling on more debt.

GDS Holdings Ltd. (GDS) is living this dual reality in real time. The company is pouring capital into infrastructure to meet AI demand from major tech companies while simultaneously wrestling with the financial hangover from building and operating billions of dollars worth of data centers. It's a balancing act that could define the next phase of China's digital infrastructure boom.

Revenue Growth Meets Reality

GDS released its latest earnings report last week, showing third-quarter revenue jumped 10.2% year-over-year to 2.89 billion yuan (about $406 million). That marks the second consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, which sounds great until you hear what management said on the earnings call.

The company locked in commitments for 75,000 square meters of new capacity during the first nine months of the year, equivalent to roughly 240 MW. Full-year commitments should approach 300 MW, with approximately 65% coming from customers running AI-powered applications. So AI demand is real and it's driving meaningful business.

But here's the catch: new order intake slowed after the second quarter. Management acknowledged that revenue growth next year probably won't match this year's pace. Meanwhile, contract renewals continue showing weakness, with monthly revenue per unit declining 3% to 4%. The AI customers are paying up for premium capacity, but traditional internet clients are pushing back on pricing. And despite all the hype around AI infrastructure, there's been enough buildout of AI-ready capacity over the past few years that supply is more than ample, which limits GDS' pricing power.

The REIT Revolution

The more interesting development happened when GDS injected roughly 2.4 billion yuan worth of data center assets into China's inaugural data center infrastructure REIT during the third quarter. The transaction generated a gain of approximately 1.37 billion yuan, pushing the company to a net profit of 729 million yuan for the quarter. Suddenly, GDS is profitable.

But the one-time profit boost isn't really the story here. What matters is how this REIT mechanism could fundamentally reshape GDS' entire operational model. For the past decade, the company financed its rapid expansion the old-fashioned way: borrow heavily, buy land, build facilities, repeat. It's the same playbook most data center operators used, and it works great when credit is cheap and plentiful.

Except China's credit environment has been tightening. The debt-fueled growth model has become less attractive and more constraining. REITs offer a crucial alternative by letting companies sell completed projects to investors, freeing up capital for new developments without adding more leverage to already stretched balance sheets.

The impact shows up clearly in GDS' numbers. The company's net debt-to-annualized-adjusted-EBITDA ratio dropped to 6 times by the end of the third quarter, down from 6.8 times at the end of last year. Average borrowing costs also declined to 3.3%. In a tightening credit environment, these improvements matter immensely. The REIT strategy isn't just a financial engineering trick; it's becoming central to how GDS plans to reduce debt and manage interest expenses going forward.

Power Plays and Policy Constraints

Like all data center operators, GDS' business fundamentally depends on access to power. That dependency is becoming even more critical as AI applications devour electricity at unprecedented rates. The company's current land bank comes with approximately 900 MW in supporting power quotas, which enables rapid deployment of new projects even with the heavy requirements from AI customers.

"Land with secured power quotas is becoming extremely scarce," management emphasized during the earnings call. It's not just about having space to build anymore. You need guaranteed access to massive amounts of electricity, which requires navigating an increasingly complex web of regulatory approvals and policy considerations.

While AI is generating substantial incremental demand, supply-side factors including land availability, power access, regulatory approvals, and construction timelines are all growing more competitive and policy sensitive. The bottleneck isn't necessarily customer demand; it's whether you can actually secure the resources to build what customers want.

The DayOne Wild Card

GDS also holds a 35.6% stake in DayOne, an overseas data center operator with potential business across Asia-Pacific and Europe. DayOne recorded a loss of 461 million yuan in the third quarter and will likely continue losing money in the near term. It's a drag on current earnings, but it demonstrates GDS' ability to develop, operate, and potentially monetize new assets in different markets rather than being locked into China exclusively.

Valuation and Market Position

GDS currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio of approximately 4.15 times. That represents a significant discount to Equinix at 8.42 times and Digital Realty at 9.31 times, but it's higher than struggling Chinese rival VNET Group at just 1.99 times. The valuation suggests investors see GDS as a credible player with scale, quality clients, and capital-recycling capabilities, even while acknowledging the risks inherent in operating within China's policy-driven and highly regulated market.

The Hong Kong-listed shares have gained about 30% this year, roughly tracking the broader market. But they've pulled back about 7% over the past month as some of the AI enthusiasm cools. At around HK$33, the stock trades roughly 33% below its 52-week high of HK$48.90. Given the persistent valuation discount compared to Western peers and the potential for continued AI-driven growth, there's a case to be made that GDS deserves closer attention. If AI demand holds firm and the company's REIT asset injections proceed smoothly, a stronger valuation multiple could be justified.

The Road Ahead

Of course, China's regulatory environment remains a major wildcard. The country is currently crafting its next Five Year Plan covering 2026 to 2030, which will dictate national priorities and potentially reshape the competitive landscape for data center operators. Policy shifts can happen quickly and unpredictably, which means investors need to monitor the regulatory environment closely.

GDS is navigating a fundamentally new computing cycle that's brought elevated market expectations but also leaves little room for error. The company is threading a needle: expanding aggressively enough to capture AI demand while simultaneously deleveraging its balance sheet through a novel REIT strategy. It's managing growth and financial discipline at the same time, which is never easy.

For investors willing to embrace some China-specific regulatory risk, GDS offers exposure to the AI infrastructure buildout at a discount to Western peers, with a newly viable strategy for managing the capital intensity that has long plagued the sector. Whether that's compelling depends largely on your conviction that AI demand will remain robust and that Chinese policymakers will continue supporting the infrastructure needed to fuel it. In other words, it's a bet on both technology trends and policy stability, which makes it interesting but definitely not simple.

Back to News

GDS Holdings Navigates the Delicate Balance Between AI Expansion and Debt Management

MarketDash Editorial Team
12 days ago
The Chinese data center operator is tapping into newly available infrastructure REITs to pay down debt while racing to meet surging AI computing demand. With revenue up over 10% and a fresh capital recycling strategy in play, GDS is positioning itself for what could be a watershed moment in China's data center industry.

China's data center industry is having something of a moment. On one side, the explosion in AI training and inference is creating voracious demand for high-performance computing infrastructure. On the other, the country just launched its first batch of infrastructure-oriented real estate investment trusts specifically for data centers, giving these capital-hungry operators a new way to raise money without piling on more debt.

GDS Holdings Ltd. (GDS) is living this dual reality in real time. The company is pouring capital into infrastructure to meet AI demand from major tech companies while simultaneously wrestling with the financial hangover from building and operating billions of dollars worth of data centers. It's a balancing act that could define the next phase of China's digital infrastructure boom.

Revenue Growth Meets Reality

GDS released its latest earnings report last week, showing third-quarter revenue jumped 10.2% year-over-year to 2.89 billion yuan (about $406 million). That marks the second consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, which sounds great until you hear what management said on the earnings call.

The company locked in commitments for 75,000 square meters of new capacity during the first nine months of the year, equivalent to roughly 240 MW. Full-year commitments should approach 300 MW, with approximately 65% coming from customers running AI-powered applications. So AI demand is real and it's driving meaningful business.

But here's the catch: new order intake slowed after the second quarter. Management acknowledged that revenue growth next year probably won't match this year's pace. Meanwhile, contract renewals continue showing weakness, with monthly revenue per unit declining 3% to 4%. The AI customers are paying up for premium capacity, but traditional internet clients are pushing back on pricing. And despite all the hype around AI infrastructure, there's been enough buildout of AI-ready capacity over the past few years that supply is more than ample, which limits GDS' pricing power.

The REIT Revolution

The more interesting development happened when GDS injected roughly 2.4 billion yuan worth of data center assets into China's inaugural data center infrastructure REIT during the third quarter. The transaction generated a gain of approximately 1.37 billion yuan, pushing the company to a net profit of 729 million yuan for the quarter. Suddenly, GDS is profitable.

But the one-time profit boost isn't really the story here. What matters is how this REIT mechanism could fundamentally reshape GDS' entire operational model. For the past decade, the company financed its rapid expansion the old-fashioned way: borrow heavily, buy land, build facilities, repeat. It's the same playbook most data center operators used, and it works great when credit is cheap and plentiful.

Except China's credit environment has been tightening. The debt-fueled growth model has become less attractive and more constraining. REITs offer a crucial alternative by letting companies sell completed projects to investors, freeing up capital for new developments without adding more leverage to already stretched balance sheets.

The impact shows up clearly in GDS' numbers. The company's net debt-to-annualized-adjusted-EBITDA ratio dropped to 6 times by the end of the third quarter, down from 6.8 times at the end of last year. Average borrowing costs also declined to 3.3%. In a tightening credit environment, these improvements matter immensely. The REIT strategy isn't just a financial engineering trick; it's becoming central to how GDS plans to reduce debt and manage interest expenses going forward.

Power Plays and Policy Constraints

Like all data center operators, GDS' business fundamentally depends on access to power. That dependency is becoming even more critical as AI applications devour electricity at unprecedented rates. The company's current land bank comes with approximately 900 MW in supporting power quotas, which enables rapid deployment of new projects even with the heavy requirements from AI customers.

"Land with secured power quotas is becoming extremely scarce," management emphasized during the earnings call. It's not just about having space to build anymore. You need guaranteed access to massive amounts of electricity, which requires navigating an increasingly complex web of regulatory approvals and policy considerations.

While AI is generating substantial incremental demand, supply-side factors including land availability, power access, regulatory approvals, and construction timelines are all growing more competitive and policy sensitive. The bottleneck isn't necessarily customer demand; it's whether you can actually secure the resources to build what customers want.

The DayOne Wild Card

GDS also holds a 35.6% stake in DayOne, an overseas data center operator with potential business across Asia-Pacific and Europe. DayOne recorded a loss of 461 million yuan in the third quarter and will likely continue losing money in the near term. It's a drag on current earnings, but it demonstrates GDS' ability to develop, operate, and potentially monetize new assets in different markets rather than being locked into China exclusively.

Valuation and Market Position

GDS currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio of approximately 4.15 times. That represents a significant discount to Equinix at 8.42 times and Digital Realty at 9.31 times, but it's higher than struggling Chinese rival VNET Group at just 1.99 times. The valuation suggests investors see GDS as a credible player with scale, quality clients, and capital-recycling capabilities, even while acknowledging the risks inherent in operating within China's policy-driven and highly regulated market.

The Hong Kong-listed shares have gained about 30% this year, roughly tracking the broader market. But they've pulled back about 7% over the past month as some of the AI enthusiasm cools. At around HK$33, the stock trades roughly 33% below its 52-week high of HK$48.90. Given the persistent valuation discount compared to Western peers and the potential for continued AI-driven growth, there's a case to be made that GDS deserves closer attention. If AI demand holds firm and the company's REIT asset injections proceed smoothly, a stronger valuation multiple could be justified.

The Road Ahead

Of course, China's regulatory environment remains a major wildcard. The country is currently crafting its next Five Year Plan covering 2026 to 2030, which will dictate national priorities and potentially reshape the competitive landscape for data center operators. Policy shifts can happen quickly and unpredictably, which means investors need to monitor the regulatory environment closely.

GDS is navigating a fundamentally new computing cycle that's brought elevated market expectations but also leaves little room for error. The company is threading a needle: expanding aggressively enough to capture AI demand while simultaneously deleveraging its balance sheet through a novel REIT strategy. It's managing growth and financial discipline at the same time, which is never easy.

For investors willing to embrace some China-specific regulatory risk, GDS offers exposure to the AI infrastructure buildout at a discount to Western peers, with a newly viable strategy for managing the capital intensity that has long plagued the sector. Whether that's compelling depends largely on your conviction that AI demand will remain robust and that Chinese policymakers will continue supporting the infrastructure needed to fuel it. In other words, it's a bet on both technology trends and policy stability, which makes it interesting but definitely not simple.