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Apple Set to Reclaim Smartphone Crown After 14-Year Absence, Thanks to iPhone 17 Momentum

MarketDash Editorial Team
11 days ago
Strong iPhone 17 demand is pushing Apple toward becoming the world's largest smartphone maker for the first time since 2011, with analysts projecting the company will maintain its lead through 2029 as replacement cycles hit a critical inflection point.

The iPhone 17 isn't just boosting Apple Inc. (AAPL) stock in 2025—it's reshaping the entire smartphone landscape. After more than a decade playing second fiddle, Apple is poised to reclaim the title of world's largest smartphone maker, a position it hasn't held since 2011.

The Numbers Tell the Story

New data from Counterpoint Research shows Apple heading toward 10% year-over-year smartphone unit growth, significantly outpacing the 4.6% expected from current market leader Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) (SSNGY). In a global smartphone market projected to grow just 3.3% overall, that performance stands out.

Apple is expected to capture 19.4% market share in 2025, enough to edge past Samsung and return to the top spot. But here's what makes this particularly interesting: it's not just about one hot product cycle. Counterpoint estimates Apple will stay on top through 2029.

"Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point," explained Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang.

Translation: There's a massive wave of upgrades coming. Wang points to 358 million secondhand iPhones sold between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025 that are likely candidates for upgrades in the coming years. That's a built-in customer base just waiting to pull the trigger on newer models.

What's Driving the Surge?

The iPhone 17 launched in September to strong global demand, including in China—one of Apple's most critical markets. The device helped Apple beat analysts' fourth-quarter revenue and earnings estimates, proving the product resonated beyond initial hype.

Looking ahead, potential catalysts include reports of a foldable iPhone arriving in 2026 or later, plus the introduction of a budget-friendly iPhone 17e that could capture price-sensitive customers.

CEO Tim Cook didn't hide his enthusiasm during the company's fourth-quarter earnings call: "We are incredibly excited about the strength we're seeing across our products and services, and we expect the December quarter's revenue to be the best ever for the company and the best ever for iPhone."

Record-Breaking Projections

CFO Kevin Parekh put numbers behind Cook's optimism, projecting December quarter revenue growth of 10% to 12% year-over-year. Apple reported $124.30 billion in revenue last year's first quarter—already a company record. The new guidance suggests this year's first quarter could hit $136.73 billion to $139.22 billion.

Parekh also called it "our best iPhone quarter ever," with iPhone revenue expected to grow "double digits" year over year. Last year's first quarter iPhone revenue was $69.14 billion. Based on 10% growth, that would climb to at least $76.06 billion—a significant jump from the $49.02 billion Apple just reported for the fourth quarter.

Market Reaction

Apple (AAPL) shares hit new all-time highs of $280.38 during Wednesday's trading session, closing up 0.6% at $278.52. The stock is up 14.2% year-to-date in 2025, reflecting investor confidence in the iPhone 17 momentum carrying forward.

After 14 years away from the top spot, Apple's return to smartphone supremacy looks less like a brief comeback tour and more like a sustained revival. The combination of strong current demand, a massive upgrade opportunity from older devices, and potential new form factors positions the company to maintain leadership for years to come.

Back to News

Apple Set to Reclaim Smartphone Crown After 14-Year Absence, Thanks to iPhone 17 Momentum

MarketDash Editorial Team
11 days ago
Strong iPhone 17 demand is pushing Apple toward becoming the world's largest smartphone maker for the first time since 2011, with analysts projecting the company will maintain its lead through 2029 as replacement cycles hit a critical inflection point.

The iPhone 17 isn't just boosting Apple Inc. (AAPL) stock in 2025—it's reshaping the entire smartphone landscape. After more than a decade playing second fiddle, Apple is poised to reclaim the title of world's largest smartphone maker, a position it hasn't held since 2011.

The Numbers Tell the Story

New data from Counterpoint Research shows Apple heading toward 10% year-over-year smartphone unit growth, significantly outpacing the 4.6% expected from current market leader Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) (SSNGY). In a global smartphone market projected to grow just 3.3% overall, that performance stands out.

Apple is expected to capture 19.4% market share in 2025, enough to edge past Samsung and return to the top spot. But here's what makes this particularly interesting: it's not just about one hot product cycle. Counterpoint estimates Apple will stay on top through 2029.

"Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point," explained Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang.

Translation: There's a massive wave of upgrades coming. Wang points to 358 million secondhand iPhones sold between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025 that are likely candidates for upgrades in the coming years. That's a built-in customer base just waiting to pull the trigger on newer models.

What's Driving the Surge?

The iPhone 17 launched in September to strong global demand, including in China—one of Apple's most critical markets. The device helped Apple beat analysts' fourth-quarter revenue and earnings estimates, proving the product resonated beyond initial hype.

Looking ahead, potential catalysts include reports of a foldable iPhone arriving in 2026 or later, plus the introduction of a budget-friendly iPhone 17e that could capture price-sensitive customers.

CEO Tim Cook didn't hide his enthusiasm during the company's fourth-quarter earnings call: "We are incredibly excited about the strength we're seeing across our products and services, and we expect the December quarter's revenue to be the best ever for the company and the best ever for iPhone."

Record-Breaking Projections

CFO Kevin Parekh put numbers behind Cook's optimism, projecting December quarter revenue growth of 10% to 12% year-over-year. Apple reported $124.30 billion in revenue last year's first quarter—already a company record. The new guidance suggests this year's first quarter could hit $136.73 billion to $139.22 billion.

Parekh also called it "our best iPhone quarter ever," with iPhone revenue expected to grow "double digits" year over year. Last year's first quarter iPhone revenue was $69.14 billion. Based on 10% growth, that would climb to at least $76.06 billion—a significant jump from the $49.02 billion Apple just reported for the fourth quarter.

Market Reaction

Apple (AAPL) shares hit new all-time highs of $280.38 during Wednesday's trading session, closing up 0.6% at $278.52. The stock is up 14.2% year-to-date in 2025, reflecting investor confidence in the iPhone 17 momentum carrying forward.

After 14 years away from the top spot, Apple's return to smartphone supremacy looks less like a brief comeback tour and more like a sustained revival. The combination of strong current demand, a massive upgrade opportunity from older devices, and potential new form factors positions the company to maintain leadership for years to come.