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Analysts Cut Burlington Stores Price Targets Despite Raised Guidance

MarketDash Editorial Team
12 days ago
Burlington Stores beat earnings expectations and lifted its full-year outlook, but Wall Street analysts slashed price targets across the board following the off-price retailer's third-quarter report that highlighted weather-related traffic challenges.

Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) delivered a classic mixed bag on Tuesday: earnings that topped expectations, sales that fell short, and guidance that went up. Oh, and analysts responded by slashing their price targets anyway. Welcome to Wall Street.

The off-price retailer reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.80, comfortably ahead of the $1.64 analyst consensus. But quarterly sales of $2.710 billion, while up 7% year over year, came in below the Street's $2.739 billion estimate. Comparable store sales crept up just 1%.

So what happened? Weather, apparently. CEO Michael O'Sullivan explained that store traffic "fell off significantly after the back-to-school period driven by unseasonably warm temperatures in our major markets." But before you write off the quarter entirely, O'Sullivan added some encouraging news: "Our comp trend then picked up to mid-single-digits in mid-October once the weather cooled, and that strong trend has continued through the first three weeks of November."

Despite the sales miss, Burlington raised its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS outlook to $9.69–$9.89, up from the previous range of $9.19–$9.59 and beating the $9.52 consensus estimate. The company also nudged its total sales growth expectation to about 8% for the full year, up from the prior 7%-8% range.

Investors seemed to like what they heard. Burlington shares jumped 5.3% to trade at $262.83 on Wednesday.

But analysts? They weren't quite as enthusiastic. Following the earnings announcement, several Wall Street firms maintained their positive ratings while trimming their price targets:

  • Evercore ISI Group analyst Michael Binetti kept an Outperform rating but lowered his price target from $370 to $335.
  • Morgan Stanley analyst Alex Straton maintained an Overweight rating and cut the price target from $330 to $310.
  • Barclays analyst Adrienne Yih stuck with an Overweight rating while reducing the price target from $336 to $331.
  • TD Cowen analyst John Kernan maintained a Buy rating but dropped the price target from $330 to $315.
  • JP Morgan analyst Matthew Boss kept an Overweight rating and slashed the price target from $346 to $316.

The pattern is clear: everyone still likes the stock, but expectations have been recalibrated. The raised guidance suggests management sees better days ahead, but the sales miss and weather-dependent traffic story gave analysts reason to temper their enthusiasm—at least for now.

Back to News

Analysts Cut Burlington Stores Price Targets Despite Raised Guidance

MarketDash Editorial Team
12 days ago
Burlington Stores beat earnings expectations and lifted its full-year outlook, but Wall Street analysts slashed price targets across the board following the off-price retailer's third-quarter report that highlighted weather-related traffic challenges.

Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) delivered a classic mixed bag on Tuesday: earnings that topped expectations, sales that fell short, and guidance that went up. Oh, and analysts responded by slashing their price targets anyway. Welcome to Wall Street.

The off-price retailer reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.80, comfortably ahead of the $1.64 analyst consensus. But quarterly sales of $2.710 billion, while up 7% year over year, came in below the Street's $2.739 billion estimate. Comparable store sales crept up just 1%.

So what happened? Weather, apparently. CEO Michael O'Sullivan explained that store traffic "fell off significantly after the back-to-school period driven by unseasonably warm temperatures in our major markets." But before you write off the quarter entirely, O'Sullivan added some encouraging news: "Our comp trend then picked up to mid-single-digits in mid-October once the weather cooled, and that strong trend has continued through the first three weeks of November."

Despite the sales miss, Burlington raised its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS outlook to $9.69–$9.89, up from the previous range of $9.19–$9.59 and beating the $9.52 consensus estimate. The company also nudged its total sales growth expectation to about 8% for the full year, up from the prior 7%-8% range.

Investors seemed to like what they heard. Burlington shares jumped 5.3% to trade at $262.83 on Wednesday.

But analysts? They weren't quite as enthusiastic. Following the earnings announcement, several Wall Street firms maintained their positive ratings while trimming their price targets:

  • Evercore ISI Group analyst Michael Binetti kept an Outperform rating but lowered his price target from $370 to $335.
  • Morgan Stanley analyst Alex Straton maintained an Overweight rating and cut the price target from $330 to $310.
  • Barclays analyst Adrienne Yih stuck with an Overweight rating while reducing the price target from $336 to $331.
  • TD Cowen analyst John Kernan maintained a Buy rating but dropped the price target from $330 to $315.
  • JP Morgan analyst Matthew Boss kept an Overweight rating and slashed the price target from $346 to $316.

The pattern is clear: everyone still likes the stock, but expectations have been recalibrated. The raised guidance suggests management sees better days ahead, but the sales miss and weather-dependent traffic story gave analysts reason to temper their enthusiasm—at least for now.