Bitcoin (BTC) is down 24% over the past month, and traders are hunting for reasons to be optimistic. But according to 10x Research, they might be reading the wrong tea leaves.

Why the Macro Picture Isn't as Bullish as It Looks

Sure, odds of a Fed rate cut in December are now sitting at 84%. But here's the catch: it's not about whether the Fed cuts, it's about what they say when they do it. A third consecutive rate cut without dovish forward guidance could leave risk assets flat or worse. Bitcoin's muted reaction to surging rate-cut expectations already hints at this disconnect.

Then there's the U.S. dollar. A rare signal just flashed, one that's only appeared five times in Bitcoin's history. Each time before, it preceded market stress, not bullish breakouts.

And that potential $600+ billion liquidity injection from the Treasury? Last time something similar happened, Bitcoin dropped first and rallied much later. The impact tends to lag, not lead.

Thanksgiving Won't Save Bitcoin

10x Research also pours cold water on the idea that holiday seasonality will rescue Bitcoin. Yes, Q4 is historically Bitcoin's strongest quarter, but every major year-end rally was fueled by actual catalysts, not calendar optimism.

Between Thanksgiving and Christmas, Bitcoin's performance has been wildly inconsistent, unlike U.S. equities, which typically climb steadily during this stretch. In 2022 and 2023, clear drivers were in place early. In 2025? Not so much.

Sentiment only started improving in mid-October 2024, which reinforces the point: holiday cheer alone won't move the needle. Without real catalysts, Bitcoin may stay grounded through the holidays.