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Oracle Shares Surge as Deutsche Bank Says OpenAI Deal Is Flying Under the Radar

MarketDash Editorial Team
11 days ago
Oracle stock jumped over 4% Wednesday after Deutsche Bank argued the market isn't giving the tech giant nearly enough credit for its OpenAI partnership, even as some analysts worry about long-term lease risks.

Oracle Corp. (ORCL) shares popped over 4% on Wednesday after Deutsche Bank made a case that's music to bullish ears: the market is basically ignoring Oracle's OpenAI partnership.

What's Happening: Deutsche Bank analyst Brad Zelnick maintained his Buy rating on Oracle with a $375 price target, but the interesting part is his math. Strip out OpenAI-related revenue and expenses, and Oracle's projected earnings per share for fiscal 2030 would drop by about $4 to roughly $17, according to multiple reports.

"Discounting these numbers back to present would suggest the company is getting little if any credit for its business with OpenAI at the current share price," Zelnick reportedly told clients.

Translation: the stock isn't pricing in what could be a meaningful revenue stream. That's either an opportunity or wishful thinking, depending on your view.

Deutsche Bank also tackled concerns about Oracle's long-term lease commitments. The firm noted there's "a good deal of flexibility" in those agreements. Even in a worst-case scenario where Oracle absorbs about half the estimated lease costs tied to lost OpenAI business, Deutsche Bank figures the company would still pull in roughly $15 in earnings per share and $26 billion in free cash flow.

The Analyst Landscape

Oracle has been collecting a mixed bag of analyst opinions lately. DA Davidson holds a neutral rating with a price target of $200, down from $300. Baird maintained its outperform rating but trimmed its target to $315 from $365. Jefferies kept its buy rating and raised its target from $360 to $400, while Scotiabank maintained its sector outperform rating and bumped its target to $360 from $350.

Price Action: Oracle shares were up 4.27% at $205.40 at the time of publication Wednesday.

Back to News

Oracle Shares Surge as Deutsche Bank Says OpenAI Deal Is Flying Under the Radar

MarketDash Editorial Team
11 days ago
Oracle stock jumped over 4% Wednesday after Deutsche Bank argued the market isn't giving the tech giant nearly enough credit for its OpenAI partnership, even as some analysts worry about long-term lease risks.

Oracle Corp. (ORCL) shares popped over 4% on Wednesday after Deutsche Bank made a case that's music to bullish ears: the market is basically ignoring Oracle's OpenAI partnership.

What's Happening: Deutsche Bank analyst Brad Zelnick maintained his Buy rating on Oracle with a $375 price target, but the interesting part is his math. Strip out OpenAI-related revenue and expenses, and Oracle's projected earnings per share for fiscal 2030 would drop by about $4 to roughly $17, according to multiple reports.

"Discounting these numbers back to present would suggest the company is getting little if any credit for its business with OpenAI at the current share price," Zelnick reportedly told clients.

Translation: the stock isn't pricing in what could be a meaningful revenue stream. That's either an opportunity or wishful thinking, depending on your view.

Deutsche Bank also tackled concerns about Oracle's long-term lease commitments. The firm noted there's "a good deal of flexibility" in those agreements. Even in a worst-case scenario where Oracle absorbs about half the estimated lease costs tied to lost OpenAI business, Deutsche Bank figures the company would still pull in roughly $15 in earnings per share and $26 billion in free cash flow.

The Analyst Landscape

Oracle has been collecting a mixed bag of analyst opinions lately. DA Davidson holds a neutral rating with a price target of $200, down from $300. Baird maintained its outperform rating but trimmed its target to $315 from $365. Jefferies kept its buy rating and raised its target from $360 to $400, while Scotiabank maintained its sector outperform rating and bumped its target to $360 from $350.

Price Action: Oracle shares were up 4.27% at $205.40 at the time of publication Wednesday.