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Michigan's $27 Billion Pension Hole and Why 87% of CEOs Are Worried About What Comes Next

MarketDash Editorial Team
10 days ago
Governor Gretchen Whitmer sat down for a surprisingly candid financial interview, revealing a massive unfunded pension liability and widespread CEO pessimism about Michigan's economic future. With trade policy chaos hitting manufacturing and a big bet on electric vehicles, the state faces some tough years ahead.

When a sitting governor shows up on a YouTube financial audit show, you know something interesting is about to happen. Governor Gretchen Whitmer did exactly that on November 3, sitting down with YouTuber Caleb Hammer for a remarkably transparent conversation about Michigan's economic challenges. The discussion laid bare some uncomfortable truths about pension debt, CEO confidence, and the state's manufacturing future.

Let's start with the number that should make Michigan taxpayers sit up straight: the state is carrying roughly $27 billion in unfunded pension liabilities. To put that in perspective, it's about five times what Michigan spends annually on its K-12 school aid fund. The plan is to fully amortize this debt within a 15-year window ending around 2038, but that's still a massive obligation hanging over the state's finances.

There's a silver lining, sort of. The pension system's funding ratio improved to 74.83% from 66.3% the previous year. But here's the thing: Whitmer acknowledged that improvement came mostly from market recovery, not from actual structural reforms. The real fix? Future state employees won't get pensions at all. "Pensions are being phased out as a policy," Whitmer explained, which should gradually shrink the liability over time. It's a solution, just not one that helps with the current problem.

The CEO Confidence Crisis

If you think the pension problem sounds concerning, the current business sentiment is arguably worse. According to Whitmer, 87% of Michigan CEOs expect the state's overall economy to weaken over the next decade. That's not a typo. Nearly nine out of ten business leaders running companies in Michigan think things are heading in the wrong direction.

What's driving this pessimism? Trade policy uncertainty, particularly around tariffs, is wreaking havoc on Michigan's core industries. "The tariff chaos and unpredictability of trade policies coming out of Washington, D.C." is creating massive stress throughout the state economy, Whitmer said. Given Michigan's heavy reliance on advanced manufacturing, especially automotive production, the state is uniquely exposed to trade policy swings.

Whitmer's preferred approach? Use tariffs "like a scalpel, not a sledgehammer." It's a nice metaphor, though whether Washington listens is another question entirely.

The Electric Vehicle Gamble

Michigan isn't just sitting around waiting for things to improve. The state is placing a massive bet on electric vehicles and battery manufacturing, committing $1 billion through its "Make It in Michigan" program for five EV battery-related projects.

"Batteries are the heaviest component, where they are built will become the center of gravity for the long-term dominance in mobility," Whitmer said, making the case that Michigan should be where batteries get manufactured. It's a logical strategy for a state built on automotive dominance, but it's not without risk.

The University of Michigan's Economic Outlook for 2025-2027 projects a 3.9% increase in per-capita income this year, which sounds good. But overall growth is expected to slow, and here's the real problem: Michigan ranks 49th nationally in population growth, according to the Michigan State Revenue and Economic Outlook published by the House Fiscal Agency. That's a serious long-term headwind when you're trying to build an economic future.

Where The Money Actually Comes From

Michigan's approach to funding its school aid system is worth noting. Beyond traditional sales tax, the state pulls in $270 million from marijuana taxes and additional revenue from gaming taxes. These "sin taxes" are, as Whitmer put it, the "easiest taxes for legislators to take votes on." The political logic makes sense, though critics point out that these taxes tend to hit lower-income individuals disproportionately hard.

On the flip side, Michigan increased its Working Families Tax Credit from 6% to 30%. Whitmer described this as a way to incentivize full-time work while disproportionately supporting families raising children. It's redistribution, but the kind designed to encourage employment.

What This Means For Investors

If you're watching Michigan municipal bonds or companies with significant operations in the state, this picture suggests caution. The combination of widespread CEO pessimism, sluggish population growth, and $27 billion in unfunded pension liabilities creates a challenging environment. The electric vehicle bet might pay off handsomely in the long run, but the transition period looks increasingly rocky.

Michigan is essentially trying to reinvent its economic engine while managing legacy obligations and navigating unpredictable trade policy. It's a tough spot, and the governor's willingness to discuss these challenges openly at least shows awareness of the scale of the problem. Whether that awareness translates into effective solutions remains to be seen.

Back to News

Michigan's $27 Billion Pension Hole and Why 87% of CEOs Are Worried About What Comes Next

MarketDash Editorial Team
10 days ago
Governor Gretchen Whitmer sat down for a surprisingly candid financial interview, revealing a massive unfunded pension liability and widespread CEO pessimism about Michigan's economic future. With trade policy chaos hitting manufacturing and a big bet on electric vehicles, the state faces some tough years ahead.

When a sitting governor shows up on a YouTube financial audit show, you know something interesting is about to happen. Governor Gretchen Whitmer did exactly that on November 3, sitting down with YouTuber Caleb Hammer for a remarkably transparent conversation about Michigan's economic challenges. The discussion laid bare some uncomfortable truths about pension debt, CEO confidence, and the state's manufacturing future.

Let's start with the number that should make Michigan taxpayers sit up straight: the state is carrying roughly $27 billion in unfunded pension liabilities. To put that in perspective, it's about five times what Michigan spends annually on its K-12 school aid fund. The plan is to fully amortize this debt within a 15-year window ending around 2038, but that's still a massive obligation hanging over the state's finances.

There's a silver lining, sort of. The pension system's funding ratio improved to 74.83% from 66.3% the previous year. But here's the thing: Whitmer acknowledged that improvement came mostly from market recovery, not from actual structural reforms. The real fix? Future state employees won't get pensions at all. "Pensions are being phased out as a policy," Whitmer explained, which should gradually shrink the liability over time. It's a solution, just not one that helps with the current problem.

The CEO Confidence Crisis

If you think the pension problem sounds concerning, the current business sentiment is arguably worse. According to Whitmer, 87% of Michigan CEOs expect the state's overall economy to weaken over the next decade. That's not a typo. Nearly nine out of ten business leaders running companies in Michigan think things are heading in the wrong direction.

What's driving this pessimism? Trade policy uncertainty, particularly around tariffs, is wreaking havoc on Michigan's core industries. "The tariff chaos and unpredictability of trade policies coming out of Washington, D.C." is creating massive stress throughout the state economy, Whitmer said. Given Michigan's heavy reliance on advanced manufacturing, especially automotive production, the state is uniquely exposed to trade policy swings.

Whitmer's preferred approach? Use tariffs "like a scalpel, not a sledgehammer." It's a nice metaphor, though whether Washington listens is another question entirely.

The Electric Vehicle Gamble

Michigan isn't just sitting around waiting for things to improve. The state is placing a massive bet on electric vehicles and battery manufacturing, committing $1 billion through its "Make It in Michigan" program for five EV battery-related projects.

"Batteries are the heaviest component, where they are built will become the center of gravity for the long-term dominance in mobility," Whitmer said, making the case that Michigan should be where batteries get manufactured. It's a logical strategy for a state built on automotive dominance, but it's not without risk.

The University of Michigan's Economic Outlook for 2025-2027 projects a 3.9% increase in per-capita income this year, which sounds good. But overall growth is expected to slow, and here's the real problem: Michigan ranks 49th nationally in population growth, according to the Michigan State Revenue and Economic Outlook published by the House Fiscal Agency. That's a serious long-term headwind when you're trying to build an economic future.

Where The Money Actually Comes From

Michigan's approach to funding its school aid system is worth noting. Beyond traditional sales tax, the state pulls in $270 million from marijuana taxes and additional revenue from gaming taxes. These "sin taxes" are, as Whitmer put it, the "easiest taxes for legislators to take votes on." The political logic makes sense, though critics point out that these taxes tend to hit lower-income individuals disproportionately hard.

On the flip side, Michigan increased its Working Families Tax Credit from 6% to 30%. Whitmer described this as a way to incentivize full-time work while disproportionately supporting families raising children. It's redistribution, but the kind designed to encourage employment.

What This Means For Investors

If you're watching Michigan municipal bonds or companies with significant operations in the state, this picture suggests caution. The combination of widespread CEO pessimism, sluggish population growth, and $27 billion in unfunded pension liabilities creates a challenging environment. The electric vehicle bet might pay off handsomely in the long run, but the transition period looks increasingly rocky.

Michigan is essentially trying to reinvent its economic engine while managing legacy obligations and navigating unpredictable trade policy. It's a tough spot, and the governor's willingness to discuss these challenges openly at least shows awareness of the scale of the problem. Whether that awareness translates into effective solutions remains to be seen.