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Wall Street's Big Banks Flip Back to Expecting December Rate Cut

MarketDash Editorial Team
10 days ago
Two of Wall Street's biggest banks have changed their tune on December Fed policy. JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs now expect a quarter-point rate cut after recent signals from central bank officials shifted the calculus.

Sometimes Wall Street changes its mind, and when it does, it's worth paying attention. Both JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have reversed course, now predicting the Federal Reserve will deliver a quarter-point rate cut when it meets December 9-10.

JP Morgan's Quick Turnaround

JP Morgan's shift is particularly notable because the bank had only recently backed away from forecasting a December cut. After September's volatile jobs data threw things into question, the bank predicted the Fed would pause until January. Now they're back to expecting action this month.

What changed? Recent commentary from Federal Reserve officials, according to chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli. "We now believe the latest round of Fedspeak tilts the odds toward the Committee deciding to cut rates in two weeks," he wrote.

Goldman Sachs reached the same conclusion independently. With no major economic data releases scheduled before the meeting, the investment bank figures the employment reports already on the table "may have sealed a 25 basis points cut."

What Fed Officials Are Actually Saying

The banks aren't just reading tea leaves here. New York Fed President John Williams has been pretty explicit about where policy might be headed. Speaking in Chile, Williams described current monetary policy as "modestly restrictive" and said he sees "room for a further adjustment in the near term" to move toward a neutral stance.

Williams acknowledged that inflation progress has "temporarily stalled" around 2.75%, above the Fed's 2% target. But he's more focused on the labor market, which has cooled to pre-pandemic levels. "Downside risks to employment have increased... while the upside risks to inflation have lessened somewhat," Williams explained.

He also offered some interesting context on tariffs, estimating they've contributed up to 0.75 percentage points to current inflation. Strip that out, and underlying inflation looks like it's trending in the right direction.

Markets Are Betting on a Cut

Traders have gotten the message loud and clear. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing in an 84.7% chance of a December rate cut. That's a dramatic shift from where sentiment stood just weeks ago.

There are still some wrinkles in the story. Reports suggest Fed Governor Stephen Miran has been pushing for more aggressive easing behind the scenes, though he's apparently willing to support a standard quarter-point cut to avoid "inflicting real harm" on the economy. Internal disagreements like this aren't unusual at the Fed, but they're worth watching.

As for the broader market reaction, investors seemed pleased with the shifting outlook. Following Thanksgiving, futures for the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 all traded higher ahead of Friday's half-day session. On Wednesday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) climbed 0.69% to $679.68, while the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) advanced 0.88% to $614.27.

The takeaway? When both JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs flip their forecasts in the same direction, and Fed officials are dropping hints about policy adjustments, it's probably wise to take notice. December's meeting just got a lot more interesting.

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Wall Street's Big Banks Flip Back to Expecting December Rate Cut

MarketDash Editorial Team
10 days ago
Two of Wall Street's biggest banks have changed their tune on December Fed policy. JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs now expect a quarter-point rate cut after recent signals from central bank officials shifted the calculus.

Sometimes Wall Street changes its mind, and when it does, it's worth paying attention. Both JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have reversed course, now predicting the Federal Reserve will deliver a quarter-point rate cut when it meets December 9-10.

JP Morgan's Quick Turnaround

JP Morgan's shift is particularly notable because the bank had only recently backed away from forecasting a December cut. After September's volatile jobs data threw things into question, the bank predicted the Fed would pause until January. Now they're back to expecting action this month.

What changed? Recent commentary from Federal Reserve officials, according to chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli. "We now believe the latest round of Fedspeak tilts the odds toward the Committee deciding to cut rates in two weeks," he wrote.

Goldman Sachs reached the same conclusion independently. With no major economic data releases scheduled before the meeting, the investment bank figures the employment reports already on the table "may have sealed a 25 basis points cut."

What Fed Officials Are Actually Saying

The banks aren't just reading tea leaves here. New York Fed President John Williams has been pretty explicit about where policy might be headed. Speaking in Chile, Williams described current monetary policy as "modestly restrictive" and said he sees "room for a further adjustment in the near term" to move toward a neutral stance.

Williams acknowledged that inflation progress has "temporarily stalled" around 2.75%, above the Fed's 2% target. But he's more focused on the labor market, which has cooled to pre-pandemic levels. "Downside risks to employment have increased... while the upside risks to inflation have lessened somewhat," Williams explained.

He also offered some interesting context on tariffs, estimating they've contributed up to 0.75 percentage points to current inflation. Strip that out, and underlying inflation looks like it's trending in the right direction.

Markets Are Betting on a Cut

Traders have gotten the message loud and clear. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing in an 84.7% chance of a December rate cut. That's a dramatic shift from where sentiment stood just weeks ago.

There are still some wrinkles in the story. Reports suggest Fed Governor Stephen Miran has been pushing for more aggressive easing behind the scenes, though he's apparently willing to support a standard quarter-point cut to avoid "inflicting real harm" on the economy. Internal disagreements like this aren't unusual at the Fed, but they're worth watching.

As for the broader market reaction, investors seemed pleased with the shifting outlook. Following Thanksgiving, futures for the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 all traded higher ahead of Friday's half-day session. On Wednesday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) climbed 0.69% to $679.68, while the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) advanced 0.88% to $614.27.

The takeaway? When both JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs flip their forecasts in the same direction, and Fed officials are dropping hints about policy adjustments, it's probably wise to take notice. December's meeting just got a lot more interesting.

    Wall Street's Big Banks Flip Back to Expecting December Rate Cut - MarketDash News