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Nutanix's 18% Drop Was Telegraphed Months Ago

MarketDash Editorial Team
10 days ago
Technical analysis warned of Nutanix's structural weakness back in July, well before earnings disappointed. The descent phase points to further downside toward the $31 level.

Nutanix (NTNX) dropped more than 18% after delivering earnings that fell short of analyst expectations and painting a disappointing picture for the quarters ahead. The market's reaction was swift and brutal, but here's the interesting part: the structure of this decline was already visible months ago.

Back on July 15th, an analysis of Nutanix through its Adhishthana cycle framework warned that the stock had entered a descent phase in Phase 11, well before the actual numbers turned sour. The recent plunge simply confirms what the structural setup was already telegraphing.

How We Got Here

The earlier analysis outlined how Nutanix completed its Cakra formation and broke out during Phase 9, triggering what's called a Himalayan Formation. This is a three-part structure consisting of an ascent, a peak, and a descent.

The ascent portion played out strongly:

  • Phase 9 delivered a powerful breakout that caught attention
  • Phase 10 pushed the rally even further, building on that momentum

But Phase 11 is where things changed. Price action started signaling that a peak had likely formed around $83.36. The stock made one last attempt to reclaim that level toward the end of the phase, but fresh selling pressure shut that down. From that peak, Nutanix has tumbled roughly 43%, which actually falls within the normal range for a descent leg in this framework.

Where Does Nutanix Go From Here?

With the stock firmly entrenched in the descent leg of its Himalayan Formation, the natural gravitational pull points toward the Cakra breakout level. For Nutanix, that level sits at approximately $31. The current selling pressure aligns cleanly with this structural expectation, suggesting the downward journey isn't finished yet.

Nutanix is now working through Phase 12, and a realistic projection suggests that Phases 12 and 13 will be consumed completing the descent, followed by consolidation near that lower zone. The real clarity about what comes next only emerges when Phase 14 begins, which marks the start of the Guna Triads. That's the portion of the cycle that determines whether a stock has the potential to deliver a strong Phase 18 rally, referred to as the Nirvana.

What This Means for Investors

When the cautious analysis was issued back in July, nearly every institutional rating on Nutanix leaned bullish. That made it essentially the lone voice highlighting the structural risk of a peak and advising investors to pump the brakes. Now, with the descent leg clearly in motion, the recent decline might look tempting to value-seekers hunting for a bargain. But the cycle framework doesn't support that approach yet.

The descent remains incomplete until the stock revisits the $31 region, which means jumping into new long positions is premature. For investors who acted on the bearish outlook earlier, the current environment suggests trailing stops and locking in profits as the structure continues to play out.

Sometimes the sharpest market moves aren't surprises at all. They're just the market finally catching up to what the structure was already showing. Nutanix is a textbook example of that dynamic, where technical frameworks provided early warning signals that fundamental analysis only confirmed months later. Whether the stock finds its footing near $31 and sets up for a future rally, or continues struggling, depends on how the next phases unfold. For now, patience remains the better part of valor.

Back to News

Nutanix's 18% Drop Was Telegraphed Months Ago

MarketDash Editorial Team
10 days ago
Technical analysis warned of Nutanix's structural weakness back in July, well before earnings disappointed. The descent phase points to further downside toward the $31 level.

Nutanix (NTNX) dropped more than 18% after delivering earnings that fell short of analyst expectations and painting a disappointing picture for the quarters ahead. The market's reaction was swift and brutal, but here's the interesting part: the structure of this decline was already visible months ago.

Back on July 15th, an analysis of Nutanix through its Adhishthana cycle framework warned that the stock had entered a descent phase in Phase 11, well before the actual numbers turned sour. The recent plunge simply confirms what the structural setup was already telegraphing.

How We Got Here

The earlier analysis outlined how Nutanix completed its Cakra formation and broke out during Phase 9, triggering what's called a Himalayan Formation. This is a three-part structure consisting of an ascent, a peak, and a descent.

The ascent portion played out strongly:

  • Phase 9 delivered a powerful breakout that caught attention
  • Phase 10 pushed the rally even further, building on that momentum

But Phase 11 is where things changed. Price action started signaling that a peak had likely formed around $83.36. The stock made one last attempt to reclaim that level toward the end of the phase, but fresh selling pressure shut that down. From that peak, Nutanix has tumbled roughly 43%, which actually falls within the normal range for a descent leg in this framework.

Where Does Nutanix Go From Here?

With the stock firmly entrenched in the descent leg of its Himalayan Formation, the natural gravitational pull points toward the Cakra breakout level. For Nutanix, that level sits at approximately $31. The current selling pressure aligns cleanly with this structural expectation, suggesting the downward journey isn't finished yet.

Nutanix is now working through Phase 12, and a realistic projection suggests that Phases 12 and 13 will be consumed completing the descent, followed by consolidation near that lower zone. The real clarity about what comes next only emerges when Phase 14 begins, which marks the start of the Guna Triads. That's the portion of the cycle that determines whether a stock has the potential to deliver a strong Phase 18 rally, referred to as the Nirvana.

What This Means for Investors

When the cautious analysis was issued back in July, nearly every institutional rating on Nutanix leaned bullish. That made it essentially the lone voice highlighting the structural risk of a peak and advising investors to pump the brakes. Now, with the descent leg clearly in motion, the recent decline might look tempting to value-seekers hunting for a bargain. But the cycle framework doesn't support that approach yet.

The descent remains incomplete until the stock revisits the $31 region, which means jumping into new long positions is premature. For investors who acted on the bearish outlook earlier, the current environment suggests trailing stops and locking in profits as the structure continues to play out.

Sometimes the sharpest market moves aren't surprises at all. They're just the market finally catching up to what the structure was already showing. Nutanix is a textbook example of that dynamic, where technical frameworks provided early warning signals that fundamental analysis only confirmed months later. Whether the stock finds its footing near $31 and sets up for a future rally, or continues struggling, depends on how the next phases unfold. For now, patience remains the better part of valor.